Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline and the result of the last matchup between these two teams, and the details follow.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is generally doing at this point in the season.
Summary and Score Prediction
Previously on the Vols-Hogs, our two game previews were entitled Save Yourself with Rebounds and Hey, Look! We’re Bigger Than These Guys! Turns out, that did, in fact, matter, but it wasn’t the only thing that mattered in an 82-61 rout by the Vols. Also contributing to the blowout was a reliable Vols defense, a surprisingly hot-shooting Vols offense, and being able to get to the line almost as much as they did:
Only two weeks later, the numbers all pretty much look the same. Should we expect the same result? The Vols are probably not going to hold Mason Jones to 9 points on 1-of-10 shooting again, but if they are as inside-out focused in this one as they were the last one, you have to like their chances.
The goals for the Vols (only slightly revised from the last game):
- Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss (or maybe not!), but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
- When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
- Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.
Vegas likes the Hogs at home by 5.5, and KenPom agrees, putting the score at Arkansas 67, Tennessee 62. Me, I’d like a repeat performance instead, please.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Auburn, and better than the Vols.
Turnover %
Conclusion: We have this picture of our youngest daughter’s second birthday party where she is giving an Olympic stink-eye to some poor boy innocently eating her chocolate birthday cake. I imagine Arkansas feeling the same way, except they never actually get to the stink-eye part; they just take their cake into the closet, bar the door, and eat the whole thing themselves. Bummer, too, because I like chocolate cake and when the other team gives my team the ball for free.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Woo. As we now say every time we talk about this stat, the Vols can’t seem to beat any teams in the top half of that list, but they can’t seem to lose to any in the bottom half. Hello down there, Arkansas!
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s making inroads in this category, though, so it shouldn’t be too lopsided.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
Same story different game, a struggling Vols offense goes up against a good defense, but an elite Vols defense should balance it out. Oh, and we shot nearly 50% from the field and over 37% from three when these two teams last met, while the Vols held the Hogs to 31% from the field.
Turnover %
Conclusions
The last time I looked at this for the Arkansas game, I LOL’d here. Imma do it again: LOL (through tears). Hey, we’ll get better, eventually. Plus, the last time out, Tennessee had only 11 turnovers to Arkansas’ 14, so what do these stats know?
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
Apparently, wild pigs can’t jump or grab rebounds with those short, little stubby ham legs. This is very good news and could once again be a factor in the Vols winning this game.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
On the other hand, the Hogs will both put you on the line and get there themselves. Free throw attempts were 30 for the Vols to 36 for the Hogs last game, so make ’em count!
Go Vols.