Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against Appalachian State tonight. Again, it’s still quite early in the season, so be wary of the data and the conclusions, but here is what we have so far.
Summary and Score Prediction
In its first two games, Tennessee’s defense has suffocated opponents. App State’s shooting percentage looks okay heading into this game, but may not look nearly as good afterward. Plus, the Mountaineers’ tendency to mishandle the ball combined with the Vols’ regular pickpocketing of the offense looks like seriously bad news for the guys on the other side of the mountain. And finally, neither team is sending opponents to the free throw line very often, but the Vols appear more likely to get there tonight than are the Mountaineers.
So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Appalachian State game tonight by knowing what to watch for:
- Expect Tennessee’s defense to really frustrate App State’s offense in a variety of ways, forcing both bad shots and a flurry of turnovers.
- On offense, expect the Vols to focus on protecting the ball and shooting better from the field. Don’t be surprised if free throws are a bit more difficult to come by this evening.
KenPom likes the Vols by 18 and puts the score at Tennessee 75, Appalachian State 57, which translates into a 95% chance of winning.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: The Mountaineers are shooting pretty well from the field. They also haven’t played us yet.
Turnover %
Conclusion: ‘Tis the season for giving!
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Not bad, but not as good as the Vols.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: About the same as our other two opponents at getting to the free throw line.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
The Vols are shooting poorly from the field, and tonight they’ll be going up against a pretty good defensive team. We’ll see whether that gets fixed tonight or not.
On the other hand, Tennessee’s shooting defense is great, although App State’s shooting offense isn’t terrible (at least not yet!)
Turnover %
Conclusions
When it comes to the Vols turning the ball over, it seems their main competition tonight will be themselves. They protected possession better last game out, but still have a ways to go.
And here’s the biggest mismatch of the game: Tennessee excels at forcing its opponents into turnovers, and the Mountaineers are already having problems in that area. Expect the Vols to make this a game of Keep Away.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
The Mountaineers are putting up good defensive rebounding numbers so far, although the Vols are doing pretty well on the offensive glass as well.
On the other end of the court, things appear to be even.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Neither the Vols nor the Mountaineers are, so far, sending opponents to the free throw line very often at all. But Tennessee’s more likely to get there than is Appalachian State.
Go Vols.