Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

The official NCAA stats system has the vapors this morning, so the defensive shooting numbers are missing. But this part of the picture looks like we’ll be screaming REBOUND all night again.

Summary and Score Prediction

Expect more shooting woes for the Vols tonight, but as always, Tennessee’s stifling defense could keep the team in the game. It will need to, because it appears that we’re looking at another game of huge disparity on the free throw line, as the Vols can’t get there and Alabama can. Meanwhile, turnovers and rebounds look about even, so winning those battles could go a long way toward putting this one in the win column.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Make the most of the advantage on defense. If you can find your own shot to boot, awesome.
  2. They’re going to get to the line, but don’t let them live there.
  3. Win the turnover and rebounding margins by as much as possible.

KenPom gives Tennessee only a 30% chance of winning and puts the score at Alabama 76, Tennessee 70.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and UNC Asheville and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Murray State and Georgia. And basically Tennessee, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Missouri and Jacksonville State, and not a whole lot better than the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Mississippi State and Kansas (oof), and much better than the good guys.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

A Vols team still struggling to find its shooting touch will probably have trouble finding it tonight. But once again, Tennessee’s shooting defense could keep the Vols in the game.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Lots of ick here. Alabama’s not especially good at forcing turnovers, so perhaps the Vols can make up some ground and protect the ball tonight. On the other side, Tennessee should get a healthy portion of freebies.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks pretty even, which means winning it will be important.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh. We can’t get to the free-throw line. They can. We’ll let them.

Go Vols.