Gameday on Rocky Top

As we said in the 2020 college football TV schedule post Wednesday, beginning slowly means there’s only a handful of games this week. Our picks this year come with a major caveat, especially this week, namely that there’s a new villain in town. The Unknowable threatens to wreak havoc over all attempts to predict anything in this crazy season.

Why do we do this?

Even though we’re using Vegas spreads and other gamblingy words, our primary purpose in discussing such things and making predictions isn’t to help you lose less of your hard-earned money by making smarter wagers, it’s to hopefully enhance the entertainment value of the season by making us all better-informed fans. As it turns out, the folks in Vegas have a proven track record of knowing their stuff when it comes to these things, which makes sense for folks actually putting real money where their collective mouths are.

So like it or not, Vegas is the standard, and whether we know what we’re talking about is best measured by comparing our predictions to theirs and others who are also trying to outsmart them. If you can do so more than half the time, you’re doing pretty well.

Bottom line, we’re just hoping to help you sound smart when talking with your friends Friday afternoons before Gamedays. And if you also win your office pool, well, gravy’s good.

Final GRT SPM results for 2019

So, how’d the old GRT Statsy Preview Machine do last year? You may recall that last year we tracked three sets of data: (1) all FBS-vs-FBS games (“FBS games”), (2) those games that were also above a certain confidence level; and (3) those FBS games that were also within a certain confidence range. How do we determine confidence? The SPM spits out a projected spread for each game, and the further this number is from the Vegas opening spread, the higher the level of confidence. To be in category 2, the confidence level must be over 9, and to be in category 3, the confidence level must be between 9 and 14.

For all FBS games last season, the SPM was 382-373 (50.60%). For the ones in category 2, it was 147-119 (55.26%), and in the sweet spot that is category 3, it was 87-54 (61.70%).

Conclusions:

• Category 1: Strong opinions about these games too often taste like crow.
• Category 2: Opinions about these are a little safer, but it is not advised to get too cocky about them.
• Category 3: If you’re going to beat your chest about any of the week’s games, do it about these. This is especially true if another predictive system like Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes any of the same games. Just remember, that even on the best days, you’re likely to be wrong four out of 10 times.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 1 Picks

With another word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 1 of the 2020 college football season:

Of those, BYU-Navy is the only Category 3 game.

How are y’all feeling about those?

With all of the sharks and other critters trespassing into our space, we’re not diving head first into the deep end to kick off the 2020 college football season. No, no, no. This Year That Will Live in Infamy calls for a cautious dipping-of-the-toes into the shallows to see whether we can actually retrieve all of them afterwards.

So yeah, there is actual live FBS football this week. It’s just that we’re going to have to bide our time with nachos and bread until the server gets here. Funny how nachos and bread tastes like manna when you’re famished.

We usually post an abbreviated schedule curated just for Vols fans first, and because tradition matters ’round these parts, we’re doing that again today, although what matters to Vols fans this week is really not much different than what matters to everyone else. If it’s live FBS football, we’re watching.

Thursday, September 3, 2020

This one at least involves an opponent with whom we have some recent familiarity, as we beat the Blazers 30-7 a lifetime ago last fall. So, we’re rooting for them to look good.

Gameday, September 5, 2020

Hmm. Well, it’s football, and it’s football the live long day. Who’s up for finding out whether we can actually get full on peanuts?

Monday, September 7, 2020

And here we are with what will likely be an actual good game in which we have a fair degree of rooting interest. You’ll no doubt recall the Vols’ super-fun loss to BYU in the second game of the season last year, and Navy was sneaking up on people all year long last season. I’m rooting for BYU in this one despite the faint lingerings of a massive grudge.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

The answer may surprise you!

When we get excited about the 2020 Vols, the conversation usually centers on the offensive line, or the individual breakout potential of sophomores Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. But one of our favorite big picture metrics heavily favors the Tennessee defense.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings got a Week 1 update at ESPN.com this week. Tennessee checks in at 19th, with the usual caveat of, “Yeah, but we play five of the Top 11.” The biggest takeaway in the new ratings to me: while Tennessee’s offense is a pedestrian 50th overall, the defense is sixth. Not in the SEC. In the nation. With all 130 teams accounted for.

(A quick reality check here: Georgia is first at 6.8, miles ahead of #2 Oregon at 12.1. So any conversation on, “Does Tennessee have one of college football’s best defenses,” would start with, “After Georgia, of course.”)

It feels like the Vols lost their most productive player in getting to the quarterback (Darrell Taylor), in setting up the defense (Daniel Bituli), and in the secondary (Nigel Warrior). But the strength of Tennessee’s 2019 defense (which finished 19th in SP+) was less about individual accolades – with one notable exception – and more about the basic building blocks the 2020 defense could replicate:

• No big plays. The 2019 Vols finished first in the nation in 30+ yard plays allowed and first in 30+ passing plays allowed (data via SportSource Analytics). Last year Tennessee allowed just 10 plays of 30+ yards. By comparison, in 2016 the Vols allowed 37 plays of 30+ yards.
• Interceptions. Nigel Warrior led the way with four, but Bryce Thompson added three and seven other Vols got one as well. Fifteen interceptions last season was good for 13th nationally, the most for Tennessee since 2014.
• Solid finish all around. In the 2-5 start, Tennessee allowed 5.44 yards per play. In the 6-0 finish, Tennessee allowed 4.51 yards per play, with none of the victims in that streak getting more than five yards per play against the Vol defense.

Even without Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, can the 2020 Vols follow that same blueprint? The biggest question to answer: who gets to the quarterback? Darrell Taylor had 8.5 of Tennessee’s 34 sacks, also their highest total since 2014. The Vols seem unlikely to put a pass rusher in the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft. Can a committee replace some/all of that production?

On the other hand, there’s also room for improvement. Tennessee was average on third down last year, allowing a conversion on 39.34% of opponent attempts, 68th nationally. A year ago yesterday, Georgia State went 10-of-17 on third down against the Vols. Alabama went 6-of-10 in Tuscaloosa before we even throw in the referees; Georgia was 5-of-11. But again in the winning streak, Tennessee made significant strides: South Carolina went 4-of-18, Missouri 4-of-15, Indiana 4-of-13. There’s a whole chunk here about the quality of offense the Vols faced in that winning streak. But if we’re finding nice things to say about the new SEC schedule, outside of Alabama the Vols won’t face anything like the Oklahoma offense we lost.

If Jeremy Pruitt, Derrick Ansley, and the defensive staff continue to get improvement from the returning pieces, the Vols could keep doing those building blocks well while finding critical improvement on third down. The sack totals will probably come down without Darrell Taylor, but the defense overall could still be noticeably better in 2020. Be great again at taking away explosive plays, create turnovers in similar fashion, and improve on third down? That’s the makings of a great defense.

We don’t often outright credit the defense for individual wins at the end of last year, not beyond a goal line stop at Kentucky that probably doesn’t get enough praise. And maybe enough upperclassman star power was lost to not make us think of it as a unit that can go out there and win games by itself. But if we’re looking for realistic versions of how the Vols make significant progress in 2020? A defense that leads the way might be more of a factor than we’re giving it credit for.