Gameday on Rocky Top

I know, I’m surprised I haven’t caught the virus too!

But you know, they got me for trespassing at Bridgestone Arena back when all this went down. I drove down because I knew Big John Fulkerson and all them were winnin’ that SEC Tournament, no doubt about it. And when they told me it’d been cancelled, I figured it was some kinda conspiracy from ol’ John Calipari to keep them from losing to us again, so I refused to leave the premises. So that, combined with unpaid gambling debts from last year and being picked up naked outside Neyland Stadium the day we switched to Nike…well, that’s three strikes, boys.

But hey, turns out you don’t really go to jail for that stuff in coronavirus times, so now I got me one of these (motions to ankle monitor with Power T in pantone 151 duct tape). My wife cried when she found out I’d be on house arrest, though I’m still unclear if they were tears of joy.

We don’t leave the house, so I don’t need a mask, but I made one with Jauan Jennings catching that football in Georgia on it just because. Sometimes I just wear it around the house to make myself feel better. My therapist says it’s the last time I was truly happy.

She also says I should just be happy to have football this fall, and maybe she’s right. I mean, all my happiness last fall went away so fast, it was one of the most confusing times of my life, I won’t lie to you boys. When we started 0-2 after the end of that BYU game, I started reading the Mormon literature. I stuck with it until Guarantano fumbled at the goal line at Alabama, which is when I knew I must’ve had it wrong. But then, we started winning! So now I’m a little unsure which church I should attend when all this is over, but surely the time of God’s testing has passed! The Vols are back! Phillip said so himself!

He also sent out a letter asking us to send our ticket money to the university even if we don’t get seats this fall, because they could use our help. I tried to find a place to reply in the comments that I’d gladly send that and an advance on next year’s seats as soon as I have it, but my wife changed all my passwords. She’s a smart one. I figure if I just keep asking her to log in to Volquest every 15 minutes she’ll break eventually.

But you know, the program is hurting financially. Everywhere is. I saw Texas is going to have sponsors for each one of their games, which seems like a great idea to raise funds without having to put a Pilot Flying J on General Neyland’s face or whatever. So I’ve got it all figured out:

• Tennessee vs Missouri, presented by the Town of Blacksburg. Blacksburg: if the alternative is Columbia, Missouri, I promise you’d rather play here every other year.
• Tennessee vs Kentucky, presented by Back to the Future 35^th Anniversary Edition. Celebrate 35 years of protecting the timeline and Kentucky losing in Knoxville!
• Tennessee vs Alabama, presented by the SEC League Office in Birmingham. You already know how this one’s going to go down; that’s why we’ve gotta find the right church, boys, because only the power of prayer can stop those referees. Also brought to you by: Butch Jones. Butch Jones: he’s getting paid either way!
• Tennessee vs Texas A&M, presented by The Estate of David By God Crockett. You’re welcome.
• Tennessee vs Florida, presented by Top Gun: Maverick Iceman. The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room. Ain’t no way we lose to these guys in December.

(Author’s note: The Idiot Optimist tips his hat to this line from Pat Forde’s 2002 story on Casey Clausen: “Many Tennesseans still have more affection for Peyton Manning than for their own children.” Sounds about right.)

I mean look, if they want to have every game sponsored by Weigel’s, that’s okay with me too. Anything to help the program. But I figure we’re going to make all the money we need when we run the table this fall.

They said we couldn’t have played this past Saturday because we had too many kids in quarantine. But really, how many guys do we need to beat South Carolina? If that o-line is healthy, we need those five and Eric Gray. Maybe throw in Austin Pope as an extra blocker. If we have seven offense players, I say let’s kick it off and see what happens.

We get Georgia while they’re still figuring out their quarterback situation, which as long as it’s not Justin Fields should be fine. Though truly, I think Justin Fields would have a better chance at immediate eligibility at Georgia than Cade Mays does at Tennessee. They gave us Auburn and Texas A&M as a bonus, but hey, Jeremy’s got Gus’s number and, knowing Auburn, they’ll probably want to fire him by November anyway. Texas A&M is an overdue chance for revenge, the first moment that happiness was taken away four years ago. It’s all coming back around, boys. I mean, you go through a ten game schedule in this league, plus Atlanta, does it really matter who else is in the College Football Playoff? Maybe they’ll let Memphis in there this year, that’d be adorable. A national champion from the SEC would finish 13-0 this year. Feels like 98!

I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football. I will be grateful for football.

And I will be most grateful for that (Fulmerzied) whipping we’re ‘bout to put on everybody.

What’s the one place where improvement would be most meaningful for Tennessee in 2020? Without question, it’s scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

Last season the Vols made 47 trips inside the 20, but came away with six just 23 times. That’s 48.94%, good for 112th nationally, and of course means the Vols scored a touchdown on less than half of their red zone visits. That’s very bad. Take away Chattanooga and UAB, and the Vols went 17-of-38 (44.7%). That’s even worse.

In 2018, the Vols actually did a pretty good job in the red zone: 34 visits obviously wasn’t ideal, but 22 touchdowns was good for a 64.71% TD percentage, 48th nationally. Larry Scott’s 2017 group went 19-of-35 for 54.29%, painfully flaming out at Florida (0-for-3) after starting the season with eight touchdowns in nine visits, including 5-for-5 must-haves against Georgia Tech. And in 2016, the high-powered Vol offense was one of the best in the nation with 36-of-49 (73.47%), 11th nationally…making it all the more puzzling when they went 2-of-5 against Vanderbilt.

More importantly, here’s what Jim Chaney has done (data from SportSource Analytics):

Jim Chaney in the Red Zone

Year	Team	Red Zone	TD	%	Rank
2010	Tennessee	40	20	50%	105
2011	Tennessee	38	24	63.20%	44
2012	Tennessee	59	36	61.02%	63
2013	Arkansas	38	23	60.53%	72
2014	Arkansas	56	36	64.29%	48
2015	Pittsburgh	48	30	62.50%	53
2016	Georgia	45	25	55.56%	100
2017	Georgia	55	39	70.91%	18
2018	Georgia	60	40	66.67%	35
2019	Tennessee	47	23	48.94%	112

In the good news department: not only is last season at Tennessee his worst performance, all of his teams got better from year one to year two in his system. Before Tyler Bray’s injury in 2011, the Vols scored touchdowns on 16-of-22 appearances (72.7%) in the first four games, including 5-of-6 against Cincinnati.

It’s always the ones you don’t get that stand out, of course. After a spectacular year in the red zone in 2017, the Dawgs were solid in 2018 but went 1-for-3 in the loss to LSU. And for Tennessee last year, as you’ll see, it’s what could’ve been that stands out.

Again, I don’t think beating Georgia State and/or BYU would’ve changed Tennessee’s postseason destiny last year; I think 9-3 Tennessee is still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl the way the conference shook out, so maybe you take the lessons instead. But the Vols, of course, settled for a pair of field goals in the middle portion of the Georgia State game. And against BYU (and Mississippi State, and Indiana), Tennessee failed to jump on a team early, missing a pair of chances for a two-possession lead on the Cougars.

One outlier stat: Tennessee threw four interceptions in the red zone last year, most in the nation. But two of those were from Brian Maurer in the Mississippi State game, when he may or may not have had a concussion. A third was a ball Jauan Jennings caught just about every other time in his career in the Florida game. I’m not overly worried about Guarantano throwing picks in the end zone. But we also know he can’t go to #15 and #1 anymore. Jennings was fifth nationally with 118 yards in the red zone last year, his seven touchdowns tied for tenth, and he had eight other catches for a first down, fourth nationally. So figuring out who that guy is for Guarantano is job number one.

Two years ago Tennessee was one of the worst short yardage rushing teams in the nation. Now the Vols should have the horses, up front and in the backfield, to be a terror there. So perhaps an answer to all this is just line up and go right at them, and leave less up to the passing game inside the 20. The Vols don’t necessarily have to be spectacular here; even an average red zone performance last year likely makes the difference in two outcomes. But finding out who Guarantano can look for inside the 20 – and on third down, where Jennings was also one of the nation’s best – could be the biggest key to Tennessee’s red zone success in 2020.

Every 2019 Red Zone series

(via ESPN play-by-play data)

Georgia State – Four appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q GSU 7-0: Touchdown
• 2Q Tied 14-14: FG as half expires; from 2nd-&-Goal at the 3, Vols went incomplete, interception overturned by pass interference, incomplete, FG
• Early 4Q GSU 21-20: FG to take the lead; pass complete to Austin Pope for no gain on 3rd-and-2 at the 14
• Late 4Q GSU 38-23: Touchdown pass with two seconds left

BYU – Four appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown (Jennings bobbled catch), went for it on 4th-and-3 at the 5
• 2Q Vols 7-3: Turnover on downs, Eric Gray stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 19
• Early 4Q Vols 13-10: FG; 1st-and-Goal at the 9 led to run for zero, Guarantano run for 4, incomplete
• OT1 BYU 23-16: Touchdown, Guarantano to Jennings on 3rd-and-10 at the 13

Chattanooga – Four appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown
• 1Q 14-0: Touchdown
• 2Q 35-0: FG (J.T. Shrout drive)
• 3Q 38-0: Touchdown (Brian Maurer drive)

Florida – Two appearances, zero touchdowns:

• 1Q 7-0 FLA: Interception in the end zone (bobbled by Jennings)
• 3Q 17-0 FLA: FG (Brian Maurer drive)

Georgia – Two appearances, one touchdown:

• 2Q 10-7 UGA: Touchdown (Maurer to Jennings)
• Late 4Q 43-14 UGA: Turnover on downs, Guarantano four straight incompletions from the five yard line

Mississippi State – Four appearances, one touchdown:

• 1Q 0-0: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
• 1Q 0-0: Touchdown, Tim Jordan 15-yard run
• 2Q 7-3 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Maurer)
• 3Q 10-3 Vols: FG, Guarantano drive, three Tim Jordan runs for eight yards from 1st-and-10 at the 13

Alabama – Four appearances, one touchdown:

• 1Q 7-0 Bama: Touchdown (Maurer two yard run)
• 2Q 14-7 Bama: FG (Maurer injured this drive); Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 5 and went false start, no gain, holding, two incomplete passes
• 3Q 21-10 Bama: FG; holding on 1st-and-Goal at the 7
• 4Q 28-13 Bama: COVER YOUR EYES! Fumble returned for TD on Guarantano sneak; Vols had 1st-and-Goal at the 2 but couldn’t get in on three previous runs

South Carolina – Three appearances, one touchdown:

• 2Q 7-3 USC: Turnover on downs, 3rd-and-Goal at the 1 led to no gain, incomplete. 17 play drive, no points, but ensuing punt was returned for a TD
• 3Q 21-17 USC: Touchdown, Jennings back-of-end-zone incredible catch, Guarantano hurt
• Early 4Q 31-21 Vols: FG

UAB – Five appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: FG (UAB intercepted on first play, Vols from the 19 went one yard, no gain, incomplete with Shrout playing QB)
• 1Q 3-0 Vols: Touchdown
• 2Q 16-0 Vols: Touchdown
• 2Q 23-0 Vols: Interception in the end zone (Guarantano)
• 3Q 23-0 Vols: Touchdown

Kentucky – Three appearances, two touchdowns:

• 2Q 13-0 UK: FG (Maurer)
• 3Q 13-3 UK: Touchdown (Guarantano)
• 3Q 13-10 UK: Touchdown (Guarantano)

Missouri – Five appearances, three touchdowns:

• 1Q 3-0 MIZ: Missed FG
• 2Q 3-0 MIZ: Touchdown
• 2Q 10-7 MIZ: Touchdown
• 2Q 14-10 Vols: FG as half expires
• 3Q 17-17: Touchdown

Vanderbilt – Two appearances, two touchdowns:

• 2Q 7-3 Vols: Touchdown
• Mid 4Q 21-10 Vols: Touchdown

Indiana – Five appearances, two touchdowns:

• 1Q 0-0: Turnover on downs, incomplete on 4th-and-Goal from the 2
• 2Q 0-0: FG
• 2Q 3-0 Vols: FG
• Late 4Q 22-9 IU: Touchdown
• Late 4Q 22-16 IU: Touchdown

Week 2 of the Wonky 2020 college football season provides our first look at a few Top 25 teams. Hello, Notre Dame in the ACC! Hello, No. 1 Clemson!

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans, meaning we’ve culled out a bit of the noise. Because Tennessee’s playing a conference-only schedule this fall and because SEC games don’t start for another couple of weeks, “curated for Vols fans” is going to mean something a little different for a bit. Hang on, we’ll get there. (We hope!)

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Hey, look. It’s the Power 5.

Gameday, September 12, 2020

Still kinda slim pickin’s here, but we get our first look at some Top 25 teams.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week: