Could Injuries Force Tennessee into Its Most Talented Lineup?

The injury bug has turned into more of an epidemic around the Tennessee football program over the past two years.

After two of the Vols’ most important players — middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. and receiver Jauan Jennings — were lost for the year before the season really even started, UT received word over the past few days that they’d be without two more defensive starters — seniors safety Todd Kelly Jr. and outside linebacker Cortez McDowell.

Losing Kirkland and Jennings without question were major blows to the Vols. But the past two significant losses are only really significant due to depth, experience and leadership. Yes, all of those are important factors for a football team, but it’s highly probable that defensive coordinator Bob Shoop is now going to be forced to play even more physically gifted players.

Simply put: There’s at least equivalent if not more talented players ready to go; it’s just a matter of getting them out there and hoping they develop.

Before I get into this point, please don’t misinterpret. These guys’ injuries aren’t a positive. You never want to lose leaders like Kelly — a legacy — and McDowell, who’ve played some vital plays for UT over the past three seasons. It would be doing those kids a disservice to paint it that way, and that’s not the intent.

But Kelly has been forced to play much of the past two seasons with a hurt knee. If he can get surgery to clean it up and come back for a final season healthy next year, it will benefit him and the Vols down the road. The injury has kept Kelly from flying all over the field, and, at times, he’s been a liability in coverage because of it.

The Vols are a faster, more talented secondary when Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy are out there, and freshman Theo Jackson is going to see an increase in his role after coaches raved about him throughout the preseason. He’s the future at the position, along with commitments Brendon Harris and Trey Dean. If it seems that UT is always looking to the “future,” well, join the club. I feel that way, too. But the bottom line is this defense lacks SEC playmakers, and a trio of Warrior/Abernathy/Jackson advances that once those guys get in game reps.

Of course, the flip side of that is receivers getting behind you for 63-yard, game-winning, soul-crushing touchdowns, but then again, the bulk of that blame should go to Shoop, who had no business allowing that to happen.

At linebacker, McDowell and Colton Jumper on the field at the same time gave the Vols a seasoned duo who can get guys lined up and who knows all the calls. But it also is arguably the slowest linebacking corps in the conference. Though Jumper will continue to see significant snaps, McDowell’s injury means more playing time for speedy redshirt sophomore Quart’e Sapp.

I’m not at practice every day, and neither are any of the reporters. So, it would be unfair to comment on how these kids go about their business each day. But Sapp made several plays against the Gators once he got on the field and didn’t look out of place at all. He looked like an SEC linebacker with plenty of speed to boot. Also, there’s a possibility that UT will play freshmen Will Ignont and Shanon Reid with McDowell sidelined for the season. Of course, it probably means more Elliott Berry, but if Shoop knows what’s best for this team, he’ll get the young guys a lot of reps this week against UMass and get them prepared to play some meaningful plays in bigger games. Austin Smith could factor into the rotation, too, if he ever gets healthy.

So, while the Vols may have lost a veteran pair in TKJr. and McDowell, they got faster and more talented. That doesn’t mean they got smarter, and given the frequency of busts in the past two years, you could understand why Shoop can’t rely on them. Now, he may have to. That could lead to some bumps in the road, but it also could lead to the Vols having players that can do exciting things on defense rather than just plodding along.

One thing this coaching staff has struggled with — and it’s something that must be in the water in Knoxville — is playing the most talented players. Instead, they go with veterans, and that isn’t always the best. Remember when Phillip Fulmer insisted on Jarrod Parish at safety? How about Mark Levine when Jamal Lewis stood on the sideline? Who’s lurking over there on the sideline that we don’t know about?

After all, Daniel Bituli wasn’t expected to play that much, and he went out and got 23 tackles against Georgia Tech and has been the Vols’ best defender this year. Yeah, he might have gotten benched for a few series against Florida, but I can’t explain that, either.

When the Vols lost to Florida on Saturday, I wrote that when you have a young but talented team, you need to treat them more like they’re talented instead of young. Head coach Butch Jones would do well to heed that advice. What he’s been throwing out there isn’t always cutting it. Why not give other players a try?

Remember how excited we all were when Tyler Byrd flipped from Miami to Tennessee on national signing day eve? Where is that kid? He needs to play. Jones told the media on Monday that Byrd was going to have an increased role. Even if it’s on the wrong side of the ball, it’s about time. Dynamic athletes like that don’t need to stand on the sideline. As awesome as John Kelly is, this staff needed to have a package to get Ty Chandler more touches. We saw that against the Gators, and the freshman’s role needs only to increase.

There doesn’t just need to be “packages” for your difference-makers. They need to be on the field. If they can’t learn what they need to learn to be there, that’s on the coaches. It has come time for Tennessee to turn the corner as a program. There’s no way the Vols should be putting inferior athletes on the field. If they do, it’s an indictment of the program. None of us believe the Vols are out-classed on the field. Have you seen the past few recruiting classes? They’ve been plenty good enough to win.

If the development is where it needs to be, those kids need to be playing. If it’s not, there needs to be some serious changes. It’s time these coaches put some kids on the field who will make a difference on offense and defense, and, most importantly, in wins and losses.

Given the circumstances of the injuries and the players who will be getting their chances, I guess we’ll see the reason they’ve been on the sideline or see why they should have been playing all along. It’s that “next-man-up” mentality that every team needs. It’s why you recruit. It’s why you build depth. And it’s what killed UT a season ago.

For the Vols’ sake and for Jones’, hopefully that won’t happen again this year.

 

Butch Jones: “We’re pissed, but now it’s what you make of it.”

Butch Jones spoke to the media at his weekly press conference earlier this afternoon. After reiterating that he was disappointed in the loss and commenting that the team’s will to win was derailed by details, he laid out the plan for moving past it:
“We all hurt. We’re angry. We’re pissed. All the above, but now it’s what you make of it. How do you become better because of this. Sometimes there are situations like this that you suffer the adversities of a long football season,  it can also galvanize you. It can bring you closer together as a football team. And again, we have to get back to work. UMass is not going to feel sorry for us. Nobody is going to feel sorry for us. So again, we have to get back and we have to go to work. That’s part of being a mature football team. It’s a long football season. Maybe people don’t want to hear it, but it is what it is. We have to get ready to play the next snap, the next play of the game, the next game. We  have to move forward. Again I’ll tell you, the details will not be ignored. I can promise you that.”
The way that game ended has to rank right up there as one of the most disappointing conclusions to a game in the history of the program. The emotions are still running extremely high on Rocky Top this Monday afternoon, but the only thing Jones can do about it right now is to make sure that his and his players’ minds are right and to get back to work.
Part of that work has to be figuring out how to prevent the things that went wrong from going wrong again, of course, but that can’t be done until you get your attitude right, and it’s good to hear that Jones is not going to let the team linger in a negative mental state that would make things worse.

Updated win probabilities for the Vols after Week 3

 

Just when you’re reeling and out of air from the gut-punch of the Florida game, Mississippi State makes things interesting in the SEC East. Here’s our weekly update of expectations for the season based both on how the Vols did and how their past and future opponents did this weekend.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Florida

Here’s the thing: saying anything positive about Tennessee after a loss like the one they just suffered to Florida is perilous for your credibility and mental health. And yet, there is, in fact, some good to be said about the Vols after that game. What’s a guy to do?

There are a lot of negative things to say about various things and people after that game. Some of it is absolutely legitimate, most notably the head-scratching decision to use John Kelly to wear out the defense late in the game and then, just when it begins to really work and the game is on the line, decide not to use the advantage you just created.

Some of it, though, is nothing more than normally smart people blinded by rage falling prey to stupidity. For instance, no matter how many people say it and no matter the volume and confidence with which they say it, that last play was not a Hail Mary. It was not “just like Georgia last year,” but was actually a situation calling for the defense to defend not only against a game-winning touchdown but also against a play to set up a game-winning field goal. That particular outcome still should not have happened, obviously, but you’re just plain wrong if you really think the only possible play there is to put everybody in the end zone. That play was plenty terrible enough without spasming off a ledge.

The real shame of that ending (including the red zone play-calling and execution) is that it will completely overwhelm and obscure another truth, namely that Tennessee may actually be better off the rest of the way than we originally thought. Tennessee had 23 first downs to Florida’s 14. They outgained them 442-380. John Kelly had 141 rushing yards and another 96 receiving yards. The team should have won despite three interceptions and three missed field goals. None of that matters in a game they actually lost despite all of it, but it can be really good news for future games if the debilitating mistakes can be corrected.

Bottom line, do you think more or less of Tennessee after the Florida game? There are some weighty items on both sides of the scale, but to me, the negatives are more likely to be corrected than the positives are to disappear. So, on balance, I actually believe in the team a little more this week than I did last week. Not a lot more, but a little. But the team absolutely has to get stuff fixed.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
  • W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
  • W3: At UCF (canceled)
  • W4: Pitt
  • W5: North Carolina
  • W6: Bye
  • W7: At #17 Miami
  • W8: Wake Forest
  • W9: At #3 Clemson
  • W10: At Virginia
  • W11: #16 Virginia Tech
  • W12: At Duke
  • W13: #13 Georgia

Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

  • W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
  • W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
  • W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: At Illinois State
  • W6: North Dakota State
  • W7: At South Dakota
  • W8: S Illinois
  • W9: At Missouri State
  • W10: Youngstown State
  • W11: W Illinois
  • W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (1-1, 1-0 SEC, #24)

  • W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
  • W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
  • W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
  • W4: At Kentucky
  • W5: Vanderbilt
  • W6: #12 LSU
  • W7: Texas A&M
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: vs #15 Georgia
  • W10: At Missouri
  • W11: At South Carolina
  • W12: UAB
  • W13: #10 Florida State

Terrible.

The Vols’ future opponents

In addition to the Vols doing some good things to offset the bad, there were some interesting developments among the Vols future opponents this weekend. Most notably, Mississippi State made LSU look more beatable and increased the odds that Georgia could get another SEC loss.

Here’s the rest of the Vols’ schedule and how those opponents fared this weekend.

9/23/17: UMass (0-4, 0-0 IND, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
  • W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
  • W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
  • W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
  • W5: At #25 Tennessee
  • W6: Ohio
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: At #21 USF
  • W9: Ga Southern
  • W10: Appalachian State
  • W11: At Mississippi State
  • W12: Maine
  • W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: These guys are not doing well. I had this game at 96% since the beginning of the season, but I’m bumping it up to 99% now.

PREDICTIONS – UMASS
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
96 96 96 99

9/30/17: Georgia (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #11)

  • W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
  • W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
  • W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
  • W4: Mississippi State
  • W5: At #25 Tennessee
  • W6: At Vanderbilt
  • W7: Missouri
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: vs. #22 Florida
  • W10: South Carolina
  • W11: At #13 Auburn
  • W12: Kentucky
  • W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: There’s not much to learn about the Bulldogs this week. I changed this game from 45% to 40% last week, and I’m going to keep it there. The interesting thing here is that Mississippi State just manhandled LSU, so while we’ve been thinking so far that Georgia’s schedule would be a breeze, there’s real hope that they lose an additional SEC game to Mississippi State, which would make things extremely interesting in the SEC East. Root hard for the Clangas this weekend.

PREDICTIONS – GEORGIA
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
45 45 40 40

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
  • W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
  • W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
  • W4: LA Tech
  • W5: At Texas A&M
  • W6: Arkansas
  • W7: At #25 Tennessee
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Vanderbilt
  • W10: At #15 Georgia
  • W11: #22 Florida
  • W12: Wofford
  • W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: The Gamecocks not only lost to Kentucky this weekend, they also lost Deebo Samuel, probably for the remainder of the season. Prior to this weekend, they looked like they were poised to compete for the East, but without Samuel, they’re likely going to struggle. I moved this game from 69% to 60% last week, but this week I’m moving it to 75%.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTH CAROLINA
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
69 69 60 75

10/21/17: Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

  • W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
  • W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
  • W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
  • W4: At Vanderbilt
  • W5: Ole Miss
  • W6: At Texas A&M
  • W7: Arkansas
  • W8: #25 Tennessee
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: #12 LSU
  • W11: At Mississippi State
  • W12: Mercer
  • W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No new information here. Keeping them at 10%.

PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
10 10 10 10

10/28/17: Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
  • W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
  • W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
  • W4: #22 Florida
  • W5: E Michigan
  • W6: Missouri
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: At Mississippi State
  • W9: #25 Tennessee
  • W10: Ole Miss
  • W11: At Vanderbilt
  • W12: At #15 Georgia
  • W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Okay, so Kentucky looked good against South Carolina. You definitely don’t want to overlook them, but I’m not sure we should overreact to one game in which the opponent lost its primary playmaker, either. I moved this game from 65% to 70% last week, and I’m going to move it back to 65% this week.

PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
65 65 70 65

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
  • W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
  • W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: North Texas
  • W6: UTSA
  • W7: UTEP
  • W8: At LA Tech
  • W9: UAB
  • W10: At #25 Tennessee
  • W11: At Rice
  • W12: Charlotte
  • W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Ito Smith ran for 219 yards, and Kwadra Griggs threw for three touchdowns for Southern Miss this week. They might be good, but it’s going to be hard to know for sure with that schedule. The seven-point loss to Kentucky is going to look better if Kentucky continues to look good. I moved this game from 85% to 80% last week, and I’m going to keep it there this week.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
90 85 80 80

11/11/17: Missouri (1-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
  • W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
  • W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
  • W4: #13 Auburn
  • W5: Bye
  • W6: At Kentucky
  • W7: At #15 Georgia
  • W8: Idaho
  • W9: At UConn
  • W10: #22 Florida
  • W11: #25 Tennessee
  • W12: At Vanderbilt
  • W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri’s offense scored 72 points in the first game and 16 points in the next two. At the rate of the last two games, the Tigers will score as many points in the remaining games of the season as they did in that first game. I moved this game back to 70% last week and am tempted to move it even further to 75%, but I am going to keep it here and keep a wary eye on these guys.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
70 65 70 70

11/18/17: LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)

  • W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
  • W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
  • W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
  • W4: Syracuse
  • W5: Troy
  • W6: At #22 Florida
  • W7: #13 Auburn
  • W8: At Ole Miss
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: At #1 Alabama
  • W11: Arkansas
  • W12: At #25 Tennessee
  • W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Mississippi State made LSU look bad. I’ve had this game at 25% since the beginning of the season, but I’m making a major move with it this week to 45%. I still think they’re talented and deep and probably have a slight advantage late in a season.

PREDICTIONS – LSU
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
25 25 25 45

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
  • W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
  • W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
  • W4: #1 Alabama
  • W5: At #22 Florida
  • W6: #15 Georgia
  • W7: At Ole Miss
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: At South Carolina
  • W10: W Kentucky
  • W11: Kentucky
  • W12: Missouri
  • W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I don’t really know what to think about Kansas State, so I don’t really know what to think about Vanderbilt beating them. We’ll have much more data on the Dores after their Alabama-Florida-Georgia run, but for now, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. I’m moving this game from 65% to 55%.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
72 72 65 55

All of that puts me at 7.39 wins, but with 8 if the coin comes up the right way every time.

I’m going to post the community expectations later today or tomorrow. If you haven’t submitted your own information yet, you can do that here.

UNDirish60 wins Week 3 of the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Contest

Congratulations to UNDirish60, who finished first in this week’s Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Pool. UNDirish60 went 15-5 with 185 confidence points and wins a free Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom tee store, Web Community Tees:

Gameday on Rocky Top Logo Tee

UNDirish60, watch for a message from me on how to get your tee.

BlountVols remains first in the overall standings, but only barely.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Participant W-L Points Tie Breaker
1 UNDirish60 15-5 185 0-0
2 C_hawkfan 16-4 184 23-31
3 edgarmsmith 15-5 179 17-10
4 utkjmitch 14-6 178 31-28
5 tpi 14-6 175 0-0
6 Volfan2002 14-6 174 24-31
7 Raven17 17-3 173 31-20**
7 Rossboro 14-6 173 24-0
9 Jahiegel 13-7 172 22-26**
9 VandyVol 15-5 172 17-21
9 OriginalVol1814 14-6 172 21-20
9 waitwhereami 14-6 172 28-24
13 birdjam 13-7 171 20-23**
13 RichVols 13-7 171 24-31
15 Displaced_Vol_Fan 13-7 170 19-17**
15 kmchugh 13-7 170 0-0
17 joeb_1 13-7 169 23-27**
17 waltsspac 14-6 169 24-17
17 Knottfair 14-6 169 28-24
17 Anaconda 13-7 169 21-14
17 Techboy 13-7 169 0-0
22 GeorgeMonkey 13-7 168 24-28**
22 biologydropout 13-7 168 0-0
24 LuckyGuess 13-7 167 24-31**
24 Volboy 13-7 167 24-21
24 mmmjtx 15-5 167 23-21
24 Sam 14-6 167 22-10
28 Phonies 13-7 166 24-30**
28 PAVolFan 8-Dec 166 27-21
28 ChuckieTVol 8-Dec 166 24-13
31 rockhopper78 9-Nov 165 20-24**
31 KeepsCornInAJar 13-7 165 14-17
31 BlountVols 13-7 165 21-17
31 chuckiepoo 13-7 165 31-27
35 boro wvvol 13-7 164 28-21**
35 jfarrar90 14-6 164 0-0
37 HUTCH 14-6 163 31-34**
37 ga26engr 13-7 163 32-27
37 BritishVol 8-Dec 163 18-15
40 jeremy.waldroop 14-6 162 17-26**
40 patmd 15-5 162 20-31
40 ThePowerT 14-6 162 24-20
43 Dylan pickle 13-7 161 24-35**
43 DinnerJacket 13-7 161 24-21
45 mmb61 13-7 160 14-31**
45 VillaVol 13-7 160 13-28
45 vols95 13-7 160 28-21
45 dgibbs 8-Dec 160 21-17
45 EVOL 13-7 160 13-6
50 ed75 14-6 159 31-28
51 jstorie1 15-5 158 28-31**
51 spartans100 8-Dec 158 24-21
51 TNann 13-7 158 25-24
54 tdrb42 15-5 157 17-20
55 1hoss2 13-7 155 0-0
56 CajunVol 8-Dec 154 24-10
57 mariettavol 8-Dec 153 27-13
58 ddayvolsfan 13-7 152 24-27**
58 PrideofTheSouthlandFan 13-7 152 24-20
58 Jaywine 13-7 152 21-17
58 RandyH112 13-7 152 24-13
62 Drew 13-7 151 21-23**
62 aquasox 14-6 151 24-20
62 MeytonPanning 9-Nov 151 20-17
65 ltvol99 8-Dec 150 27-24**
65 Joel @ GRT 13-7 150 24-17
65 Jrstep 13-7 150 24-15
68 crafdog 14-6 149 27-30**
68 Will Shelton 8-Dec 149 27-20
68 rsbrooks25 13-7 149 24-18
68 BZACHARY 14-6 149 0-0
72 ctull 8-Dec 148 28-14**
72 Gman15 13-7 148 35-23
72 CNMcCreary 10-Oct 148 0-0
75 Bulldog 85 13-7 146 20-17
76 bking 8-Dec 145 27-18**
76 rudydog 8-Dec 145 35-21
76 alanmar 8-Dec 145 38-31
79 Harley 8-Dec 143 31-17**
79 wreckvol 9-Nov 143 24-16
81 SouthernDCist 14-6 142 24-13
82 TennVol95 in 3D! 8-Dec 136 31-17
83 mobilevol 10-Oct 132 30-17
84 PensacolaVolFan 8-Dec 129 31-24
85 rollervol 8-Dec 127 24-17**
85 Timbuktu126 9-Nov 127 0-0
87 IBleedVolOrange 8-Dec 120 23-21
88 sncdaisy 10-Oct 97 24-21
89 rockytopinky 18-Feb 37 0-0
90 901Vol 0-20 36 -
90 The Alyas Greys 0-20 36 -
90 PaVol 0-20 36 -
90 T dog 0-20 36 -
90 daetilus 0-20 36 -
90 over754ut 0-20 36 -
90 wedflatrock 0-20 36 -
90 DCVFL 0-20 36 -
90 jobliner 0-20 36 -
90 memphispete 0-20 36 -

 

And here are the current overall standings after Week 3:

Rank Participant W-L Points
1 BlountVols 48-11 542
2 Knottfair 46-13 541
3 OriginalVol1814 46-13 535
4 Displaced_Vol_Fan 46-13 533
5 biologydropout 47-12 530
6 LuckyGuess 46-13 529
6 jfarrar90 46-13 529
8 C_hawkfan 47-12 528
9 Raven17 48-11 526
9 dgibbs 45-14 526
9 UNDirish60 46-13 526
12 rockhopper78 43-16 525
12 birdjam 46-13 525
14 spartans100 47-12 524
15 joeb_1 45-14 523
15 Volfan2002 46-13 523
17 waltsspac 47-12 522
17 ChuckieTVol 45-14 522
19 jeremy.waldroop 47-12 521
19 CajunVol 46-13 521
21 Phonies 45-14 520
21 boro wvvol 44-15 520
21 waitwhereami 46-13 520
24 RichVols 44-15 518
25 GeorgeMonkey 42-17 517
25 utkjmitch 47-12 517
27 VillaVol 44-15 515
27 mariettavol 46-13 515
27 chuckiepoo 44-15 515
30 tdrb42 46-13 513
31 Volboy 44-15 512
31 PAVolFan 43-16 512
31 PrideofTheSouthlandFan 45-14 512
34 wreckvol 43-16 511
35 EVOL 42-17 510
36 alanmar 45-14 509
37 Drew 45-14 508
37 Sam 45-14 508
39 ThePowerT 44-15 507
40 vols95 43-16 506
41 mmmjtx 44-15 505
41 TennVol95 in 3D! 44-15 505
41 TNann 44-15 505
41 rsbrooks25 45-14 505
45 edgarmsmith 44-15 502
46 KeepsCornInAJar 43-16 501
46 ltvol99 43-16 501
48 mmb61 42-17 500
48 tpi 44-15 500
50 patmd 43-16 497
51 Jahiegel 43-16 495
52 Joel @ GRT 44-15 494
53 Will Shelton 40-19 488
53 MeytonPanning 42-17 488
55 1hoss2 44-15 483
56 bking 43-16 481
56 aquasox 45-14 481
56 rollervol 44-15 481
59 jstorie1 43-16 479
59 ctull 42-17 479
61 DinnerJacket 41-18 478
62 rudydog 43-16 475
62 BZACHARY 41-18 475
64 ddayvolsfan 42-17 473
64 crafdog 44-15 473
66 Jrstep 42-17 472
67 Gman15 42-17 469
68 ed75 41-18 465
69 mobilevol 41-18 454
70 kmchugh 31-28 447
71 BritishVol 39-20 446
72 Anaconda 26-33 444
73 ga26engr 40-19 439
74 Rossboro 30-29 437
75 Techboy 35-24 433
76 CNMcCreary 39-20 431
77 IBleedVolOrange 39-20 429
78 PensacolaVolFan 39-20 415
79 SouthernDCist 30-29 407
80 Timbuktu126 36-23 400
81 sncdaisy 40-19 398
82 daetilus 31-28 385
83 over754ut 29-30 376
84 rockytopinky 33-26 371
85 DCVFL 21-38 321
86 VandyVol 28-31 313
87 memphispete 18-41 312
88 901Vol 18-41 309
89 HUTCH 28-31 304
90 jobliner 12-47 274
91 Harley 24-35 268
92 Dylan pickle 22-37 259
93 wedflatrock 0-59 243
93 T dog 0-59 243
95 The Alyas Greys 15-44 190
96 Jaywine 13-46 152
96 RandyH112 13-46 152
98 Bulldog 85 13-46 146
99 PaVol 5-54 121

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game Results: Florida Gators

In this week’s Guessing Game, nothing happens in the first round thanks to a fumbled thunderbolt, and Sam takes sole possession of the lead by a nose.

The full play-by-play is below. This week’s questions will go up sometime Friday.

Top 10 as of the end of last week

Fatso 12
Dave Strunk 11
Sam 10
Harley 10
Will Shelton 10
Marietta Vol 10
Daetilus 9
Jayyyy 8
Joel Hollingsworth 8
RockyTopinKY 8

 

Round 1

Q: Which team gets the ball first? (5 points)

A: Florida (5 points)

Alyas Grey drew a thunderbolt in Round 3 last week, which means that everyone else in the field was debilitated and the first question this week was only for him. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t play this week, so he didn’t get any points, either. I hate thunderbolts.

Mushrooms: cscott95 and NJ Vol

Bananas: PaVol and nelsona350

Blue shells and bolts: None

Top 10 after Round 1:

Fatso 12
Dave Strunk 11
Sam 10
Marietta Vol 10
Will Shelton 10
Harley 10
Daetilus 9
Jayyyy 8
Joel Hollingsworth 8
charles matthews 7

 

Round 2

Q: Which team’s quarterback throws the first interception? (5-20 points)

A: Tennessee’s QB (5 points)

A total of 13 players get this right and get five points for it.

Mushrooms: Fatso and BibleVol

Bananas: Will Shelton and nelsona350 (sorry, dude)

Blue shells and bolts: None!

Top 10 after Round 2:

Sam 15
Marietta Vol 15
Daetilus 14
Fatso 13
Jayyyy 13
Dave Strunk 11
Josh Farrar 11
Harley 10
Will Shelton 9
Joel Hollingsworth 8

 

Round 3

Q: Which is greater, yards gained by UT’s offense or yards given up by UT’s defense? (8-20 points)

A: Yards gained by UT’s offense (8 points)

A total of 16 players get this right and get eight points for it.

Mushrooms: NJ Vol and RandyH

Bananas: Josh Farrar and Joel Hollingsworth (See? I’m not cheating.)

Blue shells and bolts: None. Again. This has to be a record for length of time gone by with no blue shells.

Top 10 after Round 3:

Sam 23
Daetilus 22
Fatso 21
Jayyyy 21
Dave Strunk 19
Harley 18
Will Shelton 17
Marietta Vol 15
Joel Hollingsworth 15
TennVol95 13
Packtar 13
MitchellK 13

 

Full table

Player W2T W2S R1 R1 Sub R1 Specials R1 Total R2 R2 Sub R2 Specials R2 Total R3 R3 Sub R3 Specials R3 Total
Sam 10 10 10 5 15 15 8 23 23
Daetilus 9 9 9 5 14 14 8 22 22
Fatso 12 12 12 12 1 13 8 21 21
Jayyyy 8 8 8 5 13 13 8 21 21
Dave Strunk 11 11 11 11 11 8 19 19
Harley 10 10 10 10 10 8 18 18
Will Shelton 10 10 10 10 -1 9 8 17 17
Marietta Vol 10 10 10 5 15 15 15 15
Joel Hollingsworth 8 8 8 8 8 8 16 -1 15
TennVol95 5 5 5 5 5 8 13 13
Packtar 0 0 5 5 5 8 13 13
MitchellK 0 0 5 5 5 8 13 13
Evan 4 4 4 4 4 8 12 12
PaVol 5 5 -1 4 4 4 8 12 12
LTVol99 3 3 3 3 3 8 11 11
Josh Farrar 6 6 6 5 11 11 11 -1 10
Raven17 1 1 1 1 1 8 9 9
NJ Vol 1 1 1 2 5 7 7 7 1 8
RockyTopinKY 8 8
charles matthews 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
cscott95 1 1 1 2 5 7 7 7 7
RandyH 0 0 5 5 5 5 1 6
nelsona350 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 8 6 6
GoVols365 6 6
driskigm 0 0 5 5 5 5 5
Jason 0 0 5 5 5 5 5
Bulldog 85 0 0 5 5 5 5 5
Alyas Grey 5 THUNDERBOLT 5
Gr82baTNVol 5 5
Rockytop01 5 5
vfl_mks 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
wreckvol 4 4
btpenley 4 4
Drew 3 3
Displaced_Vol_Fan 2 2
Oleg Zeltser 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BibleVol 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Craig 1 1
Larry Hildebrand 1 1
GTZW 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volfaninsc 0 0

Why is Tennessee’s offense so much better in the fourth quarter?

There are plenty of numbers to support the growing narrative of Tennessee’s offense:  the Vols again fell behind by two possessions, again rallied, and again should have won. Had they pulled it off in Gainesville it would have been the eighth time in the last 34 games Tennessee came back to win from down two possessions. That’s exciting, but the argument here is, “Is it necessary?”

In 2016 and the first three games of 2017, the Vols have been incredibly productive when they had the ball in the fourth quarter. And there are a plethora of statistics to back it up (the data comes from Sports Source Analytics):

Rushing Offense

  • In 2016, Tennessee averaged 6.69 yards per carry in the fourth quarter with 11 touchdowns and 29 runs of 10+ yards. All three of those numbers were the best for any quarter of the game last fall. Through three games this year the Vols average 6.22 yards per carry in the fourth quarter, bested only by a 7.35 average in the second quarter.
  • John Kelly in the fourth quarter this fall:  11 carries for 104 yards (9.45 ypc) with two touchdowns. He is one of only 16 players in college football to have run for 100+ yards in the fourth quarter this year, and is tied with nine other running backs atop the national leaderboard with four 10+ yard runs in the fourth quarter.
  • Last year Josh Dobbs ran the ball 32 times for 324 yards (10.13 ypc) in the fourth quarter, seventh nationally in yards per carry.

These kind of numbers suggest an offense that wears down the defense all day and/or a team playing from behind against softer coverage. But most of Tennessee’s two-possession holes had already been erased by the fourth quarter last season (and Tennessee’s defense wasn’t good enough to make you feel safe about any lead). And the fourth quarter passing numbers are just as stout:

Passing Offense

  • Last year Josh Dobbs was 49-of-73 (67.1%) for 739 yards (10.12 ypa) with nine touchdowns and three interceptions in the fourth quarter. His fourth quarter QB rating was fourth nationally.
  • This year Quinten Dormady is 11-of-20 (55%) for 248 yards (12.4 ypa) with two touchdowns and an interception in the fourth quarter. His fourth quarter QB rating is currently 19th nationally.
  • Dormady’s 248 fourth quarter passing yards are eighth nationally.
  • John Kelly and Marquez Callaway in the fourth quarter:  six catches for 187 yards and a touchdown.
  • Josh Malone last year in the fourth quarter:  12 catches for 308 yards and four touchdowns. He was one of only nine players to finish the season with 300+ receiving yards in the fourth quarter.

Look at the yards per attempt per quarter over the last two years:

Dobbs 2016 Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA
1Q 58 96 60.4% 704 7.33
2Q 65 105 61.9% 785 7.48
3Q 51 80 63.8% 703 8.79
4Q 49 73 67.1% 739 10.12
Dormady 2017 Cmp Att Pct Yds YPA
1Q 11 20 55.0% 115 5.75
2Q 17 30 56.7% 143 4.77
3Q 14 23 60.9% 153 6.65
4Q 11 20 55.0% 248 12.40

Dormady doesn’t have the uptick in completion percentage Dobbs enjoyed in the fourth quarter, but the jump in yards per attempt is incredible.

All these numbers show the offense the Vols are running in the fourth quarter is incredibly potent. So what of the offense Tennessee runs in the other three quarters? What’s the difference?

I don’t have all the answers or the reasons why. As we noted yesterday, this has been an issue for Tennessee through three offensive coordinators and three starting quarterbacks under Butch Jones. The simplest explanation may be that playing from behind and in so many tight games has created have-to-have-it moments in the fourth quarter almost every week. And in those situations, Tennessee’s offense has largely excelled.

But the best way to win close games continues to be not to play them. If the team that shows up in the fourth quarter somehow manifests itself earlier and/or throughout the game – in some combination of philosophy, play-calling, and execution – the Vols would not find themselves in position to get beat by a miraculous play.

We saw Butch Jones make an adjustment in philosophy to get to this point:  in 2015 the Vols were racing to early leads, then letting off the gas. That kind of loss hasn’t happened since the Arkansas game that year. But now the Vols are saving too much gas for the home stretch. A better chance of success, for the Vols and their head coach, is to treat every play like it’s the fourth quarter.

Use the Vols Win Probability Calculator to update your expectations for the season

I’ll still be posting the recap of what happened with Tennessee and its past and future opponents tomorrow as usual along with my own updated win probabilities, but I wanted to provide y’all an early opportunity to use the Vols Win Probability Calculator to see where you’re at after this weekend’s games so that I could include them in tomorrow’s post.

So, here’s the form. Go ahead and post your result in the comments section as well for discussion purposes.

No Fields Found.

 

How to survive a soul-crushing loss to a hated rival

Two years ago, I was in my basement watching the Vols take on the Gators in The Swamp. They were ahead by 13 late in the fourth quarter, and I turned to my wife and kids and explained to them that it would take an extraordinary lapse of unimaginable proportions for Tennessee to lose the game. Hey, I was excited, because I’d been waiting for that moment from the time my oldest daughter was nine to the time she was 19.

You know how that ended. Multiple fourth down conversions and an extraordinary lapse of unimaginable proportions in the form of a miraculous (for Florida) touchdown on fourth-and-14 to give the Gators a one point lead and the win. It was crushing.

This evening, as I was watching the team finally wear out the Gators with John Kelly in the fourth quarter, I turned to my middle daughter and explained to her that all we had to do was run Kelly until he was in the end zone, and we’d win the game. I had a serious case of deja vu the entire time, though, because I was standing in the same position looking in the same direction feeling the same way about the Vols-Gators game that I had two years prior. We were in a commercial break, so I sat down and thought about it: What in the world would I do if the unimaginable and miraculous happened again? I only got as far as planning a long, hot shower before we were back from commercial and I was consoling myself with a game-tying field goal, figuring that we would be favored to win in overtime.

You know how that ended. A long pass into the end zone with time expired and watching the Gators celebrate a win over the Vols again.

So, what do you do after a soul-crushing loss to a hated rival? A few suggestions:

What to do after a soul-crushing loss to a hated rival

Eat some ice cream. I just finished a bowl of Blue Bell Rocky Mountain Road. Chocolate ice cream with chocolate-covered peanuts, pecans, almonds, and walnuts with a marshmallow swirl. It is delicious, even if it is named after those other mountains way out in Colorado. If you eat enough of it, it also has the added benefit of inducing a sugar coma, and it’s hard to remember traumatic events in that state. Really, all you want is more ice cream, so it’s a self-perpetuating cure.

Eat some jalapeno Fritos. I first found these on a recent trip up to Iowa, and I think I ate them all the way from Indianapolis to Waterloo. They’re Fritoey but not so much that it tastes like you’re licking your dog’s paws. They’re also spicy enough to keep you eating long past the point you really would like to stop, so it keeps your mind occupied with important questions like, “Why can’t I stop eating these?”

Go sit on the porch swing with your six-year-old. This took some effort, to be honest, but it was aided by my littlest one asking me, “Are you mad?” right after the game like she was afraid I was mad at her. I don’t know, honey, are you a Gators fan? No? Okay, then.

Just kidding. I didn’t give her that litmus test. Besides, she’s small enough that we still choose her clothes, so she wears orange, darnit.

Anyway, we got some fresh air and a change of scenery out on the deck, and we were visited by the neighborhood stray cat. Omi loves that stupid cat. And she doesn’t really care about soul-crushing defeats to rival teams, so if I hadn’t already been in a sugar and Frito coma, I would have probably recognized this as a perspective or something. As it went, we stayed out there for five minutes until my cravings compelled me back into the kitchen.

Listen to the players. No joke, I am constantly amazed at the maturity college football players display in the wake of heart-wrenching losses. You can tell they’re disappointed, but they already have their minds right, pointed toward the next day, the next practice, the next opponent. Don’t let one opponent beat you twice. Unless it’s jalapeno Fritos, then it’s fine.

Watch some other games. This will make you realize that (1) you’re not the only one who’s had a rough day, and (2) there’s still a lot of season left. As I write this, Kentucky is leading South Carolina 20-13 late in the fourth quarter. LSU (#12) just got mauled by Mississippi State. Can you imagine how you’d have felt to lose by 30 to the Gators? UCLA got beat by unranked Memphis. Kansas State got beat by unranked Vanderbilt. Missouri looked terrible against Purdue.

These things remind you that we’re one game into the SEC season. Missouri doesn’t look good. South Carolina’s impressive start is in jeopardy. Maybe Kentucky and Vandy are okay. Florida won today, but their non-score and non-turnover numbers aren’t going to be better than Tennessee’s.  When we recalibrate win probabilities Monday, that LSU game is going to take a hit and might even look winnable. Yes, Georgia still looks good, but that’s nothing that more ice cream and jalapeno Fritos can’t fix.

Florida Stuns Tennessee 26-20 in Another New Way To Lose

Tennessee did a noble thing on Saturday after Hurricane Irma by putting “Florida Strong” on the back of their helmets.

Unfortunately for the Vols, they were Tennessee Soft in key moments against the Florida Gators, failing to be the aggressor until too late and losing on a 63-yard missile of a Hail Mary from Feleipe Franks to Tyrie Cleveland on the final play of the game.

It was a very familiar way to lose.

After all, this is the Vols. And those were the Gators.

Even when Florida isn’t the FLORIDA of old, Tennessee can’t take advantage and move beyond them in the SEC East.

Inexplicable mistakes cost the Vols in this one, and, for that reason, the “fire Butch Jones” crowd will only grow. This Tennessee team was better than that Florida team, plain and simple. Yet, none of that mattered. Tennessee found a way to mess it up when it mattered most.

Just look at the costly mistakes that marred UT’s chances, even before the eye-covering, cringe-worthy finale.

Losing 6-3 and facing a 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line, UT refused to give the football to savage running back John Kelly a single time. The Vols didn’t even get to attempt a game-tying field goal because Quinten Dormady threw one of his three interceptions on third down for a momentum-crushing play.

When the Vols finally scored a touchdown on a brilliant Kelly run, he gave the crowd the Gator chomp, drawing an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that led to a great return, a short field and a UF touchdown. For a great player, that was a costly, stupid mistake.

But, even then, Tennessee refused to quit. Kelly and Co. took the ball right down the field, and Dormady found Ethan Wolf for a touchdown to trim the lead to three again.

After a fantastic interception late in the game where Nigel Warrior got his hand on the football, tipping it up to allow Rashaan Gaulden to pick off the football, the Vols once again marched down to the 10-yard line. Rather than run Kelly, who’d gassed the Gators defense, the Vols threw it three more times. The worst thing about that for UT is the play was there on a second-down pass to Kelly, who dropped the would-be, game-winning touchdown. He’d have walked in. Then, Marquez Callaway couldn’t haul in a perfect fade on the next play.

After an errant throw went wide to Kelly, the Vols tied the game 20-20 with under a minute to go, thinking surely it would go into overtime, where they’d have a marked advantage with Kelly.

But that’s not what happened.

Somehow, a Bob Shoop defense that had been very good for much of the day, let Tyrie Cleveland behind the safeties. Franks showed his cannon arm with a pass that traveled 60-65 yards in the air into the outstretched arms of his receiver, and all Micah Abernathy and Warrior could do was put their heads in their hands as Florida celebrated.

It was an embarrassing finish to an embarrassing loss that saw the players bring their team all the way back with a frantic fourth quarter and then lose. It was hard to watch, and it’s going to be hard to relive over the course of the next year or more. Think about how much UT fans have let Georgia have it following the Dobbs-nail boot Hail Mary last year. This is that, except it’s Florida.

Yeah, it’s Florida.

For some reason, the Gators play with that same ol’ swagger against Tennessee every year. They aren’t good, but the Vols make them good. They make coaching blunders, wait too long to turn up the heat and then bank on everything going perfectly down the stretch to win.

They got burned on Saturday. The team that leads the nation with five comeback wins from 10-point deficits in the past two years got ready to shoot the moon again, only to find a broken arrow in the quiver.

That’s not even mentioning Dormady’s three interceptions and three missed field goals that could have swung the game in Tennessee’s favor time after time. There were just too many blunders, but there were also plenty of players who weren’t relied on to make plays until it was almost too late.

If you’re a defensive coordinator, how do you not play your safeties way back, guarding against the prayer of a pass? If you’re the offensive coordinator, how do you continue to line up in the shotgun formation in short-yardage situations and fail to give the football to Kelly when points are on the line? If you’re the head coach, how do you allow this to happen?

There was criticism right before the season from an NFL scout who anonymously told a reporter who covers the Vols that several Vols were soft. I don’t believe that’s the case. They maybe made some dumb plays on Saturday like letting Cleveland by them or drawing unneccessary unsportsmanlike penalties that wound up with devastating consequences, but they didn’t play soft.

This team coached soft. Jones coached soft. Offensive coordinator Larry Scott coached soft. And on the biggest play of the game, somehow UT’s hard-nosed defense softened just enough to do the only thing it couldn’t afford to do.

When you have a young but talented team, the coaching staff needs to treat you like you’re talented a lot more than treat you like you’re young. That didn’t happen on Saturday, and the wrong team was celebrating because of it if you’re a Vols fan.

Two years after Tennessee found an impossible way to lose on a 63-yard pass to Antonio Callaway on a 4th-and-14 play when it looked like it had the game won, the Vols found another way to get beat on a 63-yard pass that rained down from the heavens into the arms of Cleveland on Ben Hill Griffin Stadium’s end zone turf.

Get ready for the criticism to rain down on Jones and Co. for finding another way to lose an important game; one where the Vols made enough plays to win but also enough mistakes to lose. When that happens, it comes down to the things that happened throughout the course of the game you look back on and shake your head.