Gameday on Rocky Top

This Saturday’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the UMass Minutemen should give the Big Orange an opportunity to find out more about their second-tier players. UMass is struggling mightily out of the gate at 0-4, and with the Vols trying to get their minds right after the bitter Florida loss and also prepare for an even more important game next week against the Georgia Bulldogs, the game plan for Tennessee should be to seize control early and get their backups in quickly for an extended look.

Here’s a quick look at UMass’ strengths and weaknesses, along with the Minutemen to watch.

UMass strengths and weaknesses

From this, it would appear that for all of its problems, the UMass offense is pretty good on first down and is not bad at all in the passing game. That said, their numbers scream “ONE DIMENSIONAL.” If that’s the case, the Vols’ defense should be able to contain the run game and then tee off on passing plays. Tennessee’s defensive line should have a good day wreaking havoc behind the line of scrimmage, as the Minutemen are giving up A LOT of sacks and TFLs.

Not that the Vols should pound their chest about it much, but the UMass defense starts off at mediocre and gets worse from there. Tennessee’s run game should be able to control this one out of the gate, and when it is time to pass, they should be just fine.

Again, not much to worry about here for the Vols.

Players to Watch

If the passing game is the thing to watch, then it all starts with junior quarterback Andrew Ford, who is 90-of-140 for 1,204 yards and six touchdowns after four games so far this season. He’s thrown only one interception.

Ford does a good job of spreading the ball around to his three favorite targets: senior tight end Adam Breneman (24 receptions for 369 yards, but no touchdowns), junior running back Andy Isabella (20 receptions for 306 yards and three touchdowns, and sophomore wide receiver Sadiq Palmer (17 receptions for 239 yards).

When they’re not passing the ball, they’re handing off to junior running back Marquis Young, who’s rushed for 225 yards this season on 60 carries. He’s had four touchdowns, and he’s also caught 12 passes for 71 yards.

On the defensive side of the ball, senior lineman Da’Sean Downey has three sacks and three tackles for loss on the season. The team’s leading tackler is senior linebacker Bryton Barr, and the secondary’s best defender so far appears to be sophomore Isaiah Rodgers, who has three pass breakups and an interception.

If the NCAA’s official field goal stats can be trusted, freshman kicker Michael Schreiner is 0-4 so far this season. He’s also only had one touchback on 17 kickoffs, so watch for Ty Chandler or whoever else is back there to maybe have a big day returning kicks.

Below are the results from our survey of the GRT community on how last weekend impacted our collective expected win total for the Vols this season. We opened this week’s Win Probability Calculator for business on Sunday at noon, and the last entry was Tuesday. The room temperature was hottest Saturday night and cooled over the course of the week, so if temperature affects reporting of expectations, keep that in mind.

Here are this week’s results:

Lots of 50/50 games in there in South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Vanderbilt. Folks are considerably less confident in the Georgia game, but still think UMass, Southern Miss, and Missouri are safe. While adding up the percentages only equates to barely over seven wins, being right on each game would mean the Vols would win eight games, about what the fan base collectively expected before the season began.

The third game of the season. A humiliating, embarrassing loss to a hated rival. Folks immediately calling for the coach’s head on a plate.

It was Saturday night, September 15, 2007, and Vols fans were livid. Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Brandon James had just flat-out dominated Tennessee in The Swamp, 59-20. They didn’t just win the game, they ripped the hope for the entire season out of our hands and curb-stomped it.

There was no way Tennessee could recover, no way the Vols would be able to compete for the East.

It was not a happy time on Rocky Top. The Big Orange was now 1-2 after three games, and fans everywhere were busy making jokes about Phillip Fulmer responding to the adversity by “working like heck,” to get it fixed. A win over Arkansas State the next week did little to dull the sharp edges, and a bye week after that only gave it additional time to fester.

And then #12 Georgia came to town the same day an article appeared in the local paper that was extremely critical of coach Fulmer and ostensibly relied on quotes from anonymous former players to drive its points deep. The whole thing was going off the rails.

Georgia

But then, the thing that nobody said could possibly happen, happened. The unranked Vols beat #12 Georgia. They not only beat them, they did to the Bulldogs what Florida had done to them three weeks prior. Tennessee won 35-14 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score made it look.

Meanwhile, Florida had lost the week before to Auburn and then lost to LSU on the same day that Tennessee beat Georgia, and Tennessee was now ahead of Florida in the race for the SEC East. Georgia, which would lose only two games the entire year, was also looking up at Tennessee when the sun set on October 6, 2007.

Alabama

So, flared tempers settled for a couple of weeks. The Vols took care of business against Mississippi State, and then the team traveled to Alabama on October 20. This was Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama, before he was NICK [FULMERIZED] SABAN and Alabama went on a decade-long (so far) rampage for the ages. The Tide would lose six (SIX!) games in 2007.

But they wouldn’t lose to Tennessee. And, in keeping with the theme for the season, they didn’t just beat the Vols, they embarrassed them, 41-17. Forget what you know about Alabama right now; this was a terrible loss to a terrible team, and it dashed the Vols’ hopes for the SEC East. Again. Florida was now 3-2 with the tiebreaker over the Vols.

South Carolina

The next two weeks did little to diminish the fury that had reloaded, rebuilt, and set up headquarters on Kingston Pike. With #16 South Carolina coming to town, the newspaper published a photo of the Grim Reaper at coach Fulmer’s door, and TV guys were saying that the only thing the program had left to look forward to was signing day and the NFL Draft. Fulmer used it to rally his guys, and they beat the Gamecocks in overtime.

Georgia beat Florida that same day, tying everything up in the East, but few cared. The Vols were certain to lose another game along the way, especially with the Arkansas Razorbacks and Heisman-contender Darren McFadden coming to town two in two weeks.

Arkansas

This time, though, those supporting Fulmer were on to the newspaper’s tricks. Nearly 200 former players, including Peyton Manning and Albert Haynesworth, went on record by actually signing their names to a letter of support and paying the newspaper to publish it as a full-page advertisement. The Vols went out and handled McFadden and the Razorbacks easily that day and won, 34-13. A defense that “couldn’t stop anybody,” held the SEC’s best rusher to 117 yards on 22 carries and his team to a mere 13 points.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky

But the drama wasn’t over. Florida won that day, and Georgia beat #18 Auburn, so Tennessee needed to win the rest of its games to keep ahead of the Gators and hold of the tiebreaker against Georgia, and many remained unconvinced that they’d be able to do it. They squeaked out a one-point victory over Vanderbilt on November 17 when the Commodores barely missed what would have been a 49-yard, game-winning field goal with 33-seconds left.

The following week gave us the epic four overtime game with Kentucky, which the Vols finally won 52-50. This game will always be the Fiddler on the Roof game to me, and to this day it remains one of the most entertaining things I’ve ever seen. After everything that had happened, it was an all-or-nothing game the Vols needed for a trip to the SEC Championship. In keeping with the rest of the season, the Vols got behind early, it was close the rest of the way, and they pulled it out in the end.

The SEC Championship Game

After having backed in to the championship game, the Vols certainly had no chance against #7 LSU, right? Wrong. They were one fourth-quarter pick-six away from winning the game and the conference.

The 2007 season was part heartbreak and part thriller, all rolled up into one. I often wonder, though, how many may have missed the thrill because they were filled with dread before every game, certain that more heartbreak lurked around the corner.

I hated 2007. I loved 2007. I’m glad I didn’t let the former spoil the latter.

Where are we now?

Third game of the season. A humiliating, embarrassing loss to a hated rival. Folks immediately calling for the coach’s head on a plate.

The rest of the season may be heartbreaking. It may also be thrilling. Probably, it will be a combination of both.

No one can know for sure until it happens. But if there’s something good at the end of this path, we won’t want to miss it.

P.S.

Chaos didn’t limit itself to Tennessee and the SEC East in 2007. The entire college football landscape was turned upside down. For an animation recapping much of that, see the old 2007 Animated BlogPoll.

Here’s our weekly update of the Vols’ statistical rankings, after the Florida game.

Offensive observations: The offensive line still seems to be doing a good job of protecting the quarterback. First down, third down, and scoring is . . . okay, but then go south in a hurry.

The most striking thing is that Red Zone Offense has gone from first three weeks ago to 100th this week.

Defensive observations: My mother always taught me that if you can’t say anything nice . . . you move on to special teams.

Special Teams observations: Need to tighten up that punt return and kick return defense, but other than that, high fives all around. And, of course, it’s only now that I realize that field goals isn’t on this list for some reason.

Turnovers and Penalties observations: Okay, decent. Could be better, but not terrible.

Player Rankings

The injury bug has turned into more of an epidemic around the Tennessee football program over the past two years.

After two of the Vols’ most important players — middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. and receiver Jauan Jennings — were lost for the year before the season really even started, UT received word over the past few days that they’d be without two more defensive starters — seniors safety Todd Kelly Jr. and outside linebacker Cortez McDowell.

Losing Kirkland and Jennings without question were major blows to the Vols. But the past two significant losses are only really significant due to depth, experience and leadership. Yes, all of those are important factors for a football team, but it’s highly probable that defensive coordinator Bob Shoop is now going to be forced to play even more physically gifted players.

Simply put: There’s at least equivalent if not more talented players ready to go; it’s just a matter of getting them out there and hoping they develop.

Before I get into this point, please don’t misinterpret. These guys’ injuries aren’t a positive. You never want to lose leaders like Kelly — a legacy — and McDowell, who’ve played some vital plays for UT over the past three seasons. It would be doing those kids a disservice to paint it that way, and that’s not the intent.

But Kelly has been forced to play much of the past two seasons with a hurt knee. If he can get surgery to clean it up and come back for a final season healthy next year, it will benefit him and the Vols down the road. The injury has kept Kelly from flying all over the field, and, at times, he’s been a liability in coverage because of it.

The Vols are a faster, more talented secondary when Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy are out there, and freshman Theo Jackson is going to see an increase in his role after coaches raved about him throughout the preseason. He’s the future at the position, along with commitments Brendon Harris and Trey Dean. If it seems that UT is always looking to the “future,” well, join the club. I feel that way, too. But the bottom line is this defense lacks SEC playmakers, and a trio of Warrior/Abernathy/Jackson advances that once those guys get in game reps.

Of course, the flip side of that is receivers getting behind you for 63-yard, game-winning, soul-crushing touchdowns, but then again, the bulk of that blame should go to Shoop, who had no business allowing that to happen.

At linebacker, McDowell and Colton Jumper on the field at the same time gave the Vols a seasoned duo who can get guys lined up and who knows all the calls. But it also is arguably the slowest linebacking corps in the conference. Though Jumper will continue to see significant snaps, McDowell’s injury means more playing time for speedy redshirt sophomore Quart’e Sapp.

I’m not at practice every day, and neither are any of the reporters. So, it would be unfair to comment on how these kids go about their business each day. But Sapp made several plays against the Gators once he got on the field and didn’t look out of place at all. He looked like an SEC linebacker with plenty of speed to boot. Also, there’s a possibility that UT will play freshmen Will Ignont and Shanon Reid with McDowell sidelined for the season. Of course, it probably means more Elliott Berry, but if Shoop knows what’s best for this team, he’ll get the young guys a lot of reps this week against UMass and get them prepared to play some meaningful plays in bigger games. Austin Smith could factor into the rotation, too, if he ever gets healthy.

So, while the Vols may have lost a veteran pair in TKJr. and McDowell, they got faster and more talented. That doesn’t mean they got smarter, and given the frequency of busts in the past two years, you could understand why Shoop can’t rely on them. Now, he may have to. That could lead to some bumps in the road, but it also could lead to the Vols having players that can do exciting things on defense rather than just plodding along.

One thing this coaching staff has struggled with — and it’s something that must be in the water in Knoxville — is playing the most talented players. Instead, they go with veterans, and that isn’t always the best. Remember when Phillip Fulmer insisted on Jarrod Parish at safety? How about Mark Levine when Jamal Lewis stood on the sideline? Who’s lurking over there on the sideline that we don’t know about?

After all, Daniel Bituli wasn’t expected to play that much, and he went out and got 23 tackles against Georgia Tech and has been the Vols’ best defender this year. Yeah, he might have gotten benched for a few series against Florida, but I can’t explain that, either.

When the Vols lost to Florida on Saturday, I wrote that when you have a young but talented team, you need to treat them more like they’re talented instead of young. Head coach Butch Jones would do well to heed that advice. What he’s been throwing out there isn’t always cutting it. Why not give other players a try?

Remember how excited we all were when Tyler Byrd flipped from Miami to Tennessee on national signing day eve? Where is that kid? He needs to play. Jones told the media on Monday that Byrd was going to have an increased role. Even if it’s on the wrong side of the ball, it’s about time. Dynamic athletes like that don’t need to stand on the sideline. As awesome as John Kelly is, this staff needed to have a package to get Ty Chandler more touches. We saw that against the Gators, and the freshman’s role needs only to increase.

There doesn’t just need to be “packages” for your difference-makers. They need to be on the field. If they can’t learn what they need to learn to be there, that’s on the coaches. It has come time for Tennessee to turn the corner as a program. There’s no way the Vols should be putting inferior athletes on the field. If they do, it’s an indictment of the program. None of us believe the Vols are out-classed on the field. Have you seen the past few recruiting classes? They’ve been plenty good enough to win.

If the development is where it needs to be, those kids need to be playing. If it’s not, there needs to be some serious changes. It’s time these coaches put some kids on the field who will make a difference on offense and defense, and, most importantly, in wins and losses.

Given the circumstances of the injuries and the players who will be getting their chances, I guess we’ll see the reason they’ve been on the sideline or see why they should have been playing all along. It’s that “next-man-up” mentality that every team needs. It’s why you recruit. It’s why you build depth. And it’s what killed UT a season ago.

For the Vols’ sake and for Jones’, hopefully that won’t happen again this year.

“We all hurt. We’re angry. We’re pissed. All the above, but now it’s what you make of it. How do you become better because of this. Sometimes there are situations like this that you suffer the adversities of a long football season,  it can also galvanize you. It can bring you closer together as a football team. And again, we have to get back to work. UMass is not going to feel sorry for us. Nobody is going to feel sorry for us. So again, we have to get back and we have to go to work. That’s part of being a mature football team. It’s a long football season. Maybe people don’t want to hear it, but it is what it is. We have to get ready to play the next snap, the next play of the game, the next game. We  have to move forward. Again I’ll tell you, the details will not be ignored. I can promise you that.”

Butch Jones is scheduled to have his weekly press conference at noon. You can watch it here, and we’ll keep notes in the comment section as he goes.

Just when you’re reeling and out of air from the gut-punch of the Florida game, Mississippi State makes things interesting in the SEC East. Here’s our weekly update of expectations for the season based both on how the Vols did and how their past and future opponents did this weekend.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Florida

Here’s the thing: saying anything positive about Tennessee after a loss like the one they just suffered to Florida is perilous for your credibility and mental health. And yet, there is, in fact, some good to be said about the Vols after that game. What’s a guy to do?

There are a lot of negative things to say about various things and people after that game. Some of it is absolutely legitimate, most notably the head-scratching decision to use John Kelly to wear out the defense late in the game and then, just when it begins to really work and the game is on the line, decide not to use the advantage you just created.

Some of it, though, is nothing more than normally smart people blinded by rage falling prey to stupidity. For instance, no matter how many people say it and no matter the volume and confidence with which they say it, that last play was not a Hail Mary. It was not “just like Georgia last year,” but was actually a situation calling for the defense to defend not only against a game-winning touchdown but also against a play to set up a game-winning field goal. That particular outcome still should not have happened, obviously, but you’re just plain wrong if you really think the only possible play there is to put everybody in the end zone. That play was plenty terrible enough without spasming off a ledge.

The real shame of that ending (including the red zone play-calling and execution) is that it will completely overwhelm and obscure another truth, namely that Tennessee may actually be better off the rest of the way than we originally thought. Tennessee had 23 first downs to Florida’s 14. They outgained them 442-380. John Kelly had 141 rushing yards and another 96 receiving yards. The team should have won despite three interceptions and three missed field goals. None of that matters in a game they actually lost despite all of it, but it can be really good news for future games if the debilitating mistakes can be corrected.

Bottom line, do you think more or less of Tennessee after the Florida game? There are some weighty items on both sides of the scale, but to me, the negatives are more likely to be corrected than the positives are to disappear. So, on balance, I actually believe in the team a little more this week than I did last week. Not a lot more, but a little. But the team absolutely has to get stuff fixed.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Pitt
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (1-1, 1-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Terrible.

The Vols’ future opponents

In addition to the Vols doing some good things to offset the bad, there were some interesting developments among the Vols future opponents this weekend. Most notably, Mississippi State made LSU look more beatable and increased the odds that Georgia could get another SEC loss.

Here’s the rest of the Vols’ schedule and how those opponents fared this weekend.

9/23/17: UMass (0-4, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: These guys are not doing well. I had this game at 96% since the beginning of the season, but I’m bumping it up to 99% now.

9/30/17: Georgia (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #11)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: There’s not much to learn about the Bulldogs this week. I changed this game from 45% to 40% last week, and I’m going to keep it there. The interesting thing here is that Mississippi State just manhandled LSU, so while we’ve been thinking so far that Georgia’s schedule would be a breeze, there’s real hope that they lose an additional SEC game to Mississippi State, which would make things extremely interesting in the SEC East. Root hard for the Clangas this weekend.

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: The Gamecocks not only lost to Kentucky this weekend, they also lost Deebo Samuel, probably for the remainder of the season. Prior to this weekend, they looked like they were poised to compete for the East, but without Samuel, they’re likely going to struggle. I moved this game from 69% to 60% last week, but this week I’m moving it to 75%.

10/21/17: Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No new information here. Keeping them at 10%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Okay, so Kentucky looked good against South Carolina. You definitely don’t want to overlook them, but I’m not sure we should overreact to one game in which the opponent lost its primary playmaker, either. I moved this game from 65% to 70% last week, and I’m going to move it back to 65% this week.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Ito Smith ran for 219 yards, and Kwadra Griggs threw for three touchdowns for Southern Miss this week. They might be good, but it’s going to be hard to know for sure with that schedule. The seven-point loss to Kentucky is going to look better if Kentucky continues to look good. I moved this game from 85% to 80% last week, and I’m going to keep it there this week.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri’s offense scored 72 points in the first game and 16 points in the next two. At the rate of the last two games, the Tigers will score as many points in the remaining games of the season as they did in that first game. I moved this game back to 70% last week and am tempted to move it even further to 75%, but I am going to keep it here and keep a wary eye on these guys.

11/18/17: LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Mississippi State made LSU look bad. I’ve had this game at 25% since the beginning of the season, but I’m making a major move with it this week to 45%. I still think they’re talented and deep and probably have a slight advantage late in a season.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I don’t really know what to think about Kansas State, so I don’t really know what to think about Vanderbilt beating them. We’ll have much more data on the Dores after their Alabama-Florida-Georgia run, but for now, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. I’m moving this game from 65% to 55%.

All of that puts me at 7.39 wins, but with 8 if the coin comes up the right way every time.

I’m going to post the community expectations later today or tomorrow. If you haven’t submitted your own information yet, you can do that here.