The Tennessee Volunteers have to take care of business against the Georgia Bulldogs at 3:30 on Saturday. Assuming they do, there are some other games that will be important to the rest of the season as well, most notably Vanderbilt traveling to Florida.

Here’s the Week 5 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Thursday, September 28

Cows vs. corn? I’m going with the cows.

Friday, September 29

I know we Vols fans have a storehouse of affection for David Cutcliffe and everything, but we want Miami to be strong under Mark Richt so that they and Florida State can take as much of that Sunshine State talent away from the Florida Gators as possible. Go Canes. Also, I’m rooting for Mike Leach over whoever’s at USC now. I obviously care a lot.

Gameday, September 30

And then it’s Gameday.

The Vols are 3-1, but it’s been a pretty rough 3-1, and the team could really use a big win over Georgia Saturday. If they don’t get it, the rest of this stuff won’t matter nearly as much, but if they do, then watch and hope for the following as well:

Noon slot

Yeah, Vanderbilt got handled by Alabama. Who doesn’t? It doesn’t mean they can’t beat Florida. All they have to do is figure out how to keep Florida from getting lucky at the end of the game. Seriously, though, the Gators are running out of chances to lose, and Vandy actually does present a challenge.

Afternoon slot

At 3:30, it’s all guns blazing against the Georgia Bulldogs. If the Vols can get it done, everything is still in play.

Evening slot

Here’s where it really gets interesting.

• After the Vols game, tune in to #13 Auburn vs. #24 Mississippi State. Even if Tennessee beats Georgia, we’re almost certainly going to need Georgia to get another loss somewhere else. Auburn’s on the schedule, so we want them to present a challenge.
• After that, just channel hop through the rest of your evening as future opponents Southern Miss, LSU, and Alabama are all playing. When that gets boring, tune in to #2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech. I’m rooting for the Hokies in that one.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 5

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

Welcome to this week’s Brad-is-sick-as-a-dog-when-Tennessee-plays-the-Dawgs version of Locks & Keys! In other words, this one’s gonna be short and sweet, and let’s hope that since I coughed all over the words, you won’t catch whatever it is I have.

We all know two weeks ago was devastatingly disappointing for the Vols when they went to Gainesville and lost on the last play due to some baffling defense/decisions. We also know that last weekend’s near-miss debacle against UMass wasn’t indicative of what this UT team is.

So, what are we going to see this week?

As Will and I have both written, Tennessee’s game against Georgia could be a defining, decision point for coach Butch Jones’ tenure. It also could be a pivotal spot for Quinten Dormady to run with the quarterback job or for Jarrett Guarantano to get an extended look throughout the remainder of the season.

Don’t you just hate it when there’s so much on the line? That’s the picture Tennessee has painted itself in. There’s still so much to salvage this season. Beat the Bulldogs, and the Vols are right back in the thick of the divisional race. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look like it’s going to be easy at all.

Let’s take a quick look at last week’s locks. It wasn’t pretty. We went 4-4 with Utah, West Virginia, Duke and San Diego State all hooking us up. But Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Oregon and Florida decided not to play nice. Three of those lost outright. So, we’re 14-11-1 this year. That needs to get better. And it will.

Here are the keys, so let’s see if UT did them.

• Get Guarantano extended reps: I’m going to say this one’s even. He got what he needed. Butch put him in for three series, and all were three-and-out. However, he also put him in in perhaps the worst imaginable situation. So, I’m going with a FAIL.
• Can I get a Shamburger please? Nope. After we heard so much about this stud freshman, I can’t remember a single defensive rep all year. FAIL.
• Ty Time: Tennessee’s struggles didn’t exactly dictate the Vols leaning on a backup tailback, so it’s understandable that he wasn’t a huge part of the game. It did look like the Vols wanted to work him in. FAIL.
• Don’t get anybody hurt: Well, turns out this should have extended to the pregame, too. Shy Tuttle got hurt. Jashon Robertson wasn’t himself, and tight ends Ethan Wolf and Jakob Johnson got hurt in the game. FAIL.
• Let the Byrd fly: Tyler Byrd had just two catches for 21 yards, but one of them was a touchdown. EVEN.

KEYS

Make Fromm Look Like a Freshman

So far, the savvy first-year former 5-star Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm has looked poised and awesome. It doesn’t matter whether he played in South Bend or at home in Athens against Mississippi State, he looked like he needs to be the guy no matter if Jacob Eason is ready or not.

He still hasn’t played in an environment like Neyland Stadium can be. Expect the old girl to be loud (at least at the beginning) and that could rattle Fromm, especially if the Vols can disguise some blitzes and generate a pass rush.

Slow the Big Three

Nick Chubb is beginning to look like Nick Chubb again, and that’s good news. But it isn’t great news for the Vols as the senior returns to the scene of his gruesome knee injury that set him back more than a year. Sony Michel and freshman D’Andre Swift are proving to be more than able backups.

UT’s defense hasn’t been bad against traditional offenses this year, but they’ve not faced a set of running backs like Georgia’s. The Vols won’t be able to totally stop them, but they must get some key stops on third downs, inside the 20-yard line and get the Dawgs off the field. They cannot let UGA control the game on the ground. You’ve got to put the game in the hands of the quarterback and hope.

Remember the Rhythm

What happened to Larry Scott’s play-calling? He was very good in the season’s first two games, and beginning with the inexplicable decisions inside the 10-yard line against Florida and culminating with the complete second-half failure against UMass, he looks like he’s in over his head.

Scott needs to remember he has John Kelly, and he needs to ride him. He also needs to put Quinten Dormady in position to complete high-percentage passes and take calculated shots downfield. The Vols cannot afford to be anything like they’ve been on offense the past two weekends, or they’ll get blown off their own field.

Turn ‘Em Over

Tennessee needs some crucial stolen points in this game, whether they’re created off turnovers or special teams. That’s the way the Vols beat Georgia the last time the Dawgs came to Neyland Stadium, and that needs to be the formula this time. Tennessee needs to be hyped up and aggressive. That needs to yield extra possessions.

Band Together and Coach this Team

I’m sick of hearing about Butch Jones. He’s not proved that he can be a high-caliber SEC coach yet, and he has been a gameday liability. All that can change if he begins to coach aggressively, puts the garbage behind him and mans up in this pivotal game. That’s what needs to happen if he wants to be UT’s coach in the future.

This Vols team has been criticized (rightfully so) and dragged through the coals. Everybody in the country is predicting Jones to be canned. This team should use that as motivation if it has any gumption about it. If it doesn’t, Jones could lose the locker room, and, ultimately, his job.

LOCKS

This is a tough week to pick games, but I see eight that I at least kind of like. I really like all of them except for Iowa.

1. Duke +6.5 over Miami: I’m a Duke believer. All the Blue Devils do is win football games and cover spreads for me this year. This is the week where David Cutcliffe’s team gets in the rankings by beating the Hurricanes outright.
2. USC -4 at Washington State: This is going to be a very good year for Mike Leach’s team, but the Cougars aren’t up to the caliber as the Trojans. Plus, the little not-ready-for-the-NFL comment Leach made about Sam Darnold will come back to haunt him.
3. Vanderbilt +9 at Florida: The Commodores talked smack and got put in their place by Alabama like the little brother they are last week. They’ve been quieter this week, and I like VU to go into Gainesville and give Ralph Webb a big win against his hometown team. They’ll at least cover.
4. Central Michigan-Boston College under 51: Neither of these teams can score. That tells you all you need to know.
5. Iowa +3.5 at Michigan State: I still don’t believe in Brian Lewerke and the Spartans, who looked bad against Notre Dame last week. I think the Hawkeyes are better than the Irish, and I can’t believe they’re getting points. They win outright, so play the money line.
6. Southern Miss -8 vs. North Texas: Maybe I’m just looking too much at the olden days of these programs, but the Mustard Buzzards aren’t bad, and they’re playing at home. They’ll cover.
7. MTSU +3 at Florida Atlantic: This is my favorite play of the day. We still don’t know if Brent Stockstill or Richie James will play for the Blue Raiders, but Lane Kiffin’s program isn’t there yet. MTSU will win.
8. Rutgers +30 vs. Ohio State: The Buckeyes will win this easily, but they’ve not blown anybody out really this year. Rutgers is bad but not atrocious. They’ll keep it within four touchdowns.

By the way, want a Vols score? It’s gonna be 31-20 Dawgs.

With the way that Tennessee played against lowly UMass and the way that Georgia absolutely rose to the challenge against a good Mississippi State team, it was probably inevitable that some would conclude that the Georgia Bulldogs would be overwhelming favorites over the Tennessee Volunteers this week. Even I significantly downgraded our chances earlier this week.

So, I was surprised to learn on Monday that Georgia was only a 7.5-point favorite in the game, but I had to take note because, hey, who knows more about hangovers than Vegas, right? And then I checked ESPN’s FPI and found that Georgia had only a 69.5% chance to win. What about S&P+, what did it have to say? Georgia, 63%, with a projected score of 29.7 to 24. That’s a picture of a clear favorite, of course, but it’s certainly not overwhelming.

Let’s take a closer look at Georgia and the relative stats of the two teams to see if any of that actually makes sense.

Georgia’s schedule

Georgia (4-0, 1-0 SEC, #7)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 10th most difficult. For comparison’s sake, Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 107th. Keep that in mind as we look at the stats.

But really, the Bulldogs’ resume only consists of a one-point victory over a barely-ranked team (like the Vols were recently), and one solid thumping of a team we think is probably pretty good, although we don’t know yet for sure because its reputation was built on beating LSU, another team many have have been very wrong about.

Statsy Preview Calculator

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 156.5 rushing yards per game, but Georgia is giving up only 97.5 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as Georgia, is Georgia Tech, which is giving up only 100.3 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 148 against them. Georgia does feature the best run defense the Vols have seen so far this year, but that Yellow Jackets number is pretty close to what the Bulldogs are doing. Based on all of that, I’m going to guess that Tennessee gets only slightly less than its average on the ground and nets 150.

Georgia rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 242.3 rushing yards per game, a number that is perhaps inflated to a degree due to playing Georgia Tech’s flexbone in the first game of the season. The Bulldogs run game is averaging 223.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Indiana State, but it’s not really close enough to tell us much as they’re averaging only 129.7 yards per game on the ground. The Sycamores got 122 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is also not particularly helpful as that team is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 393.7 rushing yards per game and got 535 against Tennessee. I’m going to guess that Georgia will get more than their average against Tennessee, but it won’t be as bad as it was against the Yellow Jackets. I’m going with 300 rushing yards for Georgia against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 224.8 passing yards per game, and Georgia is allowing 172.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UMass, which is giving up 218.4 yards per game through the air. The Vols put up 184 against them in a listless effort. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 164.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. I’m going to say that Tennessee will put up around 200 passing yards this weekend.

Georgia passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 140.5 passing yards per game. As good as the new quarterbacks have looked, Georgia’s only averaging 166 passing yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is once again Georgia Tech, which is getting 93.3 yards per game through the air, and they got more than their average against Tennessee with 120. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 200.7 passing yards per game and got 212 against Tennessee. I’m going with Georgia putting up their average of about 170 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 30.3 points per game, but that number is somewhat inflated by a double overtime game during which they scored an extra 14 points in extra periods. Georgia is allowing only 11.5 points per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 23.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 28 against them in regulation. This will be toughest scoring defense the Vols have faced this season. Taking all of that together, I’m going to say that the Vols score somewhere around 24 points against Georgia.

Georgia scoring

Tennessee is allowing 21.8 points per game, and Georgia is averaging 31. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 23.7 points, and they got 26 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 37.7 points and got 28 in regulation against Tennessee. I’m going with Georgia putting up about 31 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 150
• Georgia rushing yards: 300
• Tennessee passing yards: 200
• Georgia passing yards: 170
• Tennessee points: 24
• Georgia points: 31

Current betting lines

The result that the statsy preview calculator spit out looks a lot like the current spread, which is 7.5 for this game with an over/under of 47.5. So maybe that is about right, and maybe the game figures to be much closer than most think.

What does Georgia do especially well and not especially well?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. From the stats, it would appear that Georgia is a run-first offense that likes to take a chance downfield in the passing game every once in a while. When they complete a pass, it’s generally a long one, but their completion percentage and overall passing offense isn’t really very good. They’re really not very good on first down or at putting points on the board, either. But make no mistake, everything keys off Georgia’s run game, which is so good that it forces you to over-commit to stopping it so that you can no longer defend even a below-average passing attack. And remember, Tennessee’s defense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, so Georgia may not have to be very good on offense to have a good day. But if they can strike the right balance between mitigating the damage in the running game without also giving up an occasional deep pass, they could do well.

Defensive observations. It may come as a bit of a surprise when you think about Nick Chubb and three other guys just like him, but the strength of the Bulldogs’ team actually appears to be its defense. They are good across the board, except that they don’t do an especially good job at generating sacks or tackles for loss. Other than that, they are quite strong — against the run, against the pass, on every down — and they’re especially good at keeping opponents out of the end zone. Tennessee’s offense is in for a challenging day against this group.

Special teams observations. Don’t expect much in the punt return game from either team Saturday. The Vols do appear to have an advantage in the kick return game, but kicker Rodrigo Blankenship has put 19 of 24 kickoffs into the end zone so far this season, so the Vols’ may not even be able to get off the ground there. And Georgia’s pretty good at kick returns, too.

Turnovers and Penalties observations.
Georgia does not appear to be especially well-disciplined from a penalties perspective, so perhaps there are some hidden yards to be had there.

Players to Watch

Offense

Quarterback Jacob Eason was only 1-of-3 before leaving the first game due to injury and being replaced by true freshman Jake Fromm. Fromm, though, has done well, going 43-of-69 with seven touchdowns and one interception.

The leading receiver on the team so far is junior Terry Godwin, who’s caught eight passes for 214 yards and four touchdowns. Senior receiver Javon Wims also has eight catches, and sophomore receiver Mecole Hardman has seven. Running back D’Andre Swift has six receptions, and tight end Isaac Nauta has four.

What makes this team go, though, is the running game. Senior Nick Chubb is leading the way with 59 carries for 371 yards, but three other backs have at least 20 carries as well. Senior Sony Michel has 36 for 192 yards, Swift has 27 for 196, and sophomore Brian Herrien has another 24 for 77 yards.

Defense

Junior defensive lineman Trenton Thompson has three solo tackles for loss and 12 tackles so far this season. The team’s current sack leader is senior linebacker Lorenzo Carter, who has three. And the most active defensive backs are junior Deandre Baker (five passes defended, four pass breakups, and an interception) and senior Dominick Sanders (three passes defended, two pass breakups, and an interception).

Back in July, we posted the Vols entire depth chart by class and included each player’s talent rankings, using their 247 Sports Composite numbers. Some of that has changed already, of course, as injuries and on-field performance so far this season has resulted in different guys starting.

Just for kicks, I wanted to see what the Vols’ current projected depth chart for the Georgia game looks like and how it compares to Georgia’s. Here are those results (click here for full page):

The color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom. Georgia defensive tackle Trenton Thompson is the highest-rated player on either team with a rating of .9991.

Note that the star ratings and 247 Composite numbers are from the players’ recruiting profiles and are not necessarily indicative of how valuable they currently are to their respective teams. Some lower-ranked guys are doing better than their rankings, and some guys with really high rankings have yet to live up to expectations.

With those disclaimers, though, here are a few observations:

• Both teams are starting one player who never even got a ranking. Tennessee linebacker Colton Jumper and Georgia fullback Christian Payne have become key members of their teams despite not having the accolades of team members coming out of high school.
• Team breakdowns: Tennessee’s current starting lineup includes 9 3-stars, 11 4-stars, and 2 5-stars. Georgia’s includes 5 3-stars, 12 4-stars, and 4 5-stars.
• Georgia’s highest-ranked players are junior defensive tackle Trenton Thompson, senior linebacker Lorenzo Carter, senior running back Nick Chubb, and sophomore receiver Mecole Hardman.
• As talented as Tennessee has become, Georgia appears to out-talent the Vols in every unit, with the exception of Vols wide receivers vs. the Bulldogs secondary. And although that’s what the numbers say, it’s probably not actually true.
• Georgia’s front 7 on defense looks scary good.