Half the league takes the weekend off, Tennessee gets rolled as expected, Southern Miss wins a thriller, Missouri flirts with 70 points again, and LSU continues to improve. What’s it all mean for the Vols the rest of the way?

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Alabama

The Vols lost to Alabama 45-7, barely missing on a historical spread of 37 points, and got outgained 604 yards to 108. The first downs race was 35-7. Tennessee would have barely won with a score of 49-45 if you gave Tennessee seven points for a first down and Alabama seven points for a touchdown. The offense looked inept once again, and although it didn’t feel like the defense was terrible, it still gave up 600 yards and 45 points.

And yet, I don’t know that any of that tells us anything that we didn’t already know. Alabama just magnified the team’s warts and shined a national spotlight on them. It’s embarrassing, but it’s not like it was a well-kept secret or anything.

So, I’m actually not feeling any worse about the Vols themselves after this weekend. There may actually be some raw material to work with the rest of the way . . . but I’m not ready to go anywhere in that direction yet, either. So, status quo this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

10/28/17: Kentucky (5-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Kentucky’s offense crossed midfield only three times. Still, I’m keeping this one at 50/50.

PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

65

65

70

65

55

50

50

50

50

11/4/17: Southern Miss (5-2, 3-1 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
• W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
• W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Southern Miss had to stage a comeback to get the win against LA Tech. They didn’t make it 27-19 until there was 1:23 left, and then they needed to recover an onside kick, score again, and get a two-point conversion to get it to overtime. The craziness didn’t stop there, as both teams threw an interception on their respective possessions in the first overtime. Credit to Southern Miss for all of that and for finally getting over the top in the second overtime to pull off the dramatic win. All of that said, I’m keeping this one at 50/50.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

90

85

80

80

70

55

55

50

50

11/11/17: Missouri (2-5, 0-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
• W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Oh, good. Missouri is finding itself just in time. Or maybe they just played actual potatoes this weekend. I don’t know. Regardless, they can put up points. Sometimes. Other times not. So, I’m giving them 50 for putting up a lot of points sometimes and taking away 50 for sometimes not being very good at all.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

70

65

70

70

70

50

50

50

50

11/18/17: LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC, #24)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
• W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
• W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
• W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Oh, good. LSU is rolling again, too. Fantastic. Derrius Guice ran for 276 yards himself. I moved this to 30% last week, and I’m moving it even further this week, to 25%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

25

25

25

45

45

50

50

30

25

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
• W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: They didn’t play this week, so I’m keeping this a 50/50 game.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

72

72

65

55

55

50

50

50

50

All of that puts me at 5.25 wins. Use this form to get your own calculation:

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (4-2, 3-1 ACC, RV)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
• W6: Bye
• W7: Lost to #11 Miami, 25-24.
• W8: Beat Wake Forest, 38-24.
• W9: At Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: Georgia

The Yellow Jackets are still one play and one point away from being undefeated. That Clemson game this week could be entertaining.

Indiana State (0-7, 0-4 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
• W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
• W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
• W8: Lost to S Illinois, 45-24.
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (3-3, 3-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
• W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: Florida State

UMass (1-6, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At USF (canceled)
• W9: Beat Ga Southern, 55-20.
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Georgia (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #3)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
• W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
• W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

South Carolina (5-2, 3-2 SEC, RV)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
• W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
• W8: Beat Tennessee, 45-7.
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Tuscaloosa today to take on the vaunted #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30. It’s the CBS Game of the Week.

Alabama is reportedly now a 37-point favorite. They have more talent. They have better coaching. Every number that matters is crimson.

But take heart. Be of good courage. Show some effort. Care.

It’s time to show the right kind of pride in Tennessee football.

Go Vols.

• Kickoff: Oct. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Watch online
• Listen online
• Live stats

We all know the line and the lack of touchdowns; anything Tennessee’s offense does well against Alabama’s top-tier defense should be considered a gift. But what about Tennessee’s defense?

It continues to be in the program’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, no matter who the coach is. Getting the offense back on track deserves the headlines, but the idea also applies to a defense returning a wealth of experience. The early conversation on Bob Shoop’s unit centered on sub-par performances against unique rushing offenses and a catastrophic failure on the final play at Florida. Since then, the volume of the larger conversations on Butch Jones and offensive failure has overwhelmed a quieter truth:  Tennessee’s defense has become fairly reliable.

Thirty-six percent of Florida’s 380 yards came on two plays in the final 11 minutes. The Vols held Georgia to 5.25 yards per play; only Notre Dame’s defense has done better against the Bulldogs this year. Then the Vols held South Carolina to 5.05 yards per play, with 52% of their 323 yards coming on two drives in the third and fourth quarter.

Is the worst thing about Tennessee’s defense…Tennessee’s offense? The Vols gave up those two drives to the Gamecocks around three three-and-outs and a five-and-out. Tennessee’s defense still struggles with depth due to injury, especially at linebacker, and can be worn down late in the game.

But the Vol defense is pretty good at preventing big plays.

Tennessee is currently 29th nationally in 10+ yard plays allowed, and 22nd nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed. Last year the Vols finished 115th and 113th in those two categories. In the advanced metrics at Football Study Hall, the Vol defense is second nationally in preventing explosive plays.

Tennessee’s defense still wears the scars of the Georgia Tech game, as well as those late, long drives against South Carolina. The Vols allow 5.11 yards per carry on the year, 114th nationally. But the Vols are 35th nationally in yards per passing attempt allowed, and would be even higher if not for the hail mary at Florida.

Tennessee’s third down conversions also suffer due to late game fatigue: the Vols allow conversions on 43% of third downs, 101st nationally. This may be the statistic most impacted by the performance of the Vol offense. And as good as the defense is at preventing big plays, it is equally as bad if not worse in the red zone: 20 opponent trips have resulted in 19 scores, 124th nationally.

Will any of this trend positive against Alabama? I’m not sure, but the defense’s performance will be the most interesting thing to watch on Saturday. And that may continue beyond this week:  with a more manageable schedule after this weekend, how far might the Vol defense carry this team the rest of the way, and how much might that impact the outlook on this team in 2018?

The Tennessee Volunteers are a 34-point underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend, and for good reason. The Crimson Tide look like they just keep getting better and better. They are more talented. They are Top 10 in six of twelve defensive statistical categories, including first in rushing defense, second in scoring defense, and fourth in total defense.

And Tennessee’s offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in more than two full games.

#BeatBamaAnyway

We’ve delved into the stats and stared into the eyes of the devil. I don’t care what Nick Saban says, these guys are good. Here’s what we found.

Alabama’s schedule (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 38th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 51st.

Stats

Alabama features the best rushing defense, the best scoring defense, and the best scoring offense the Vols have seen all year. Either sit down or hold on to something before reading on.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 134.7 rushing yards per game, and Alabama is giving up only 66.7 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Alabama, is Georgia, which is giving up 82.1 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 62 against them. To date, Tennessee has played no one better against the run than Alabama. I do think that having Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback may be worth another 10-20 yards rushing, so put me down for 80 rushing yards for Tennessee against Alabama.

Alabama rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 242.8 rushing yards per game, while the Alabama run game is averaging 302.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is once again Georgia, which is getting 282.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 294 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 362.0 rushing yards per game and got 535 against Tennessee. A modest reasonable goal for the Vols this weekend would be to hold the Tide to their average on the ground like the Vols did against Georgia, and so I’m going with Alabama getting about 300 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense. It will feel like 500.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 185.3 passing yards per game, and Alabama is allowing 187.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is giving up 211.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 259 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 186.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. Based on all of that, I’m going to go with Tennessee putting up the averages this weekend and getting about 185 passing yards.

Alabama passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 129.2 passing yards per game. Alabama is getting 182.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 181.3 yards per game through the air, and they got 212 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 226.4 passing yards per game and got 129 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 170 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 21.7 points per game, and Alabama is allowing 10.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 12.6 points per game, and they goose-egged Tennessee. Tennessee has not played anyone better than Alabama in this category. The Vols have not scored a touchdown in more than two full games, and they are now playing the stingiest defense they’ve faced all season. Regardless, I think that the rivalry aspect of this game will somehow kick in and result in six or seven points. Officially, I’m going with 7 points for the Vols.

Alabama scoring

Tennessee is allowing 23.8 points per game. Alabama is averaging 42.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.6 points, and they got 41 against Tennessee. In addition to being the stingiest defense the Vols have played this year, Alabama also has the highest-scoring offense they’re seen so far.

This is the most difficult thing in the matchup to predict, I think. The thing is, Tennessee’s defense isn’t terrible this year. It’s just that the offense is struggling so much that the defense ends up looking worse than it is. With two exceptions, the Vols have held all opponents to under 26 points, 20 if you discount that last play against Florida. And one of the exceptions was a double-overtime game. And yet, that still leaves the last exception: Georgia put up 41, and honestly, Alabama looks just like Georgia except even better. The Tide are basically scoring 41 points in every game they play. Texas A&M gave them a good game and held them to 27, but Alabama also averaged over 60 points against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.

Honestly, I think the range here is a vast, gaping chasm with teeth, something like 32-60. I’m going to split the difference and call it 45 points for Bama.

#BeatBamaAnyway

SUMMARY

Tennessee rushing yards: 80

Alabama rushing yards: 300

Tennessee passing yards: 185

Alabama passing yards: 170

Tennessee points: 7

Alabama points: 45

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Alabama 33, Tennessee 7 and covering the spread.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The SPM is more optimistic than Vegas, as the current spread is between 35 and 36.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51.5. That makes it look like Alabama, 43-8 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 2.1% chance of beating the Tide, and S&P+ gives them a 5% chance, setting the game at Alabama, 39.1-10.9. So both S&P+ and the SPM like the Vols to cover this week. Of course, computers don’t know when wheels are about to come off.

What does Alabama do especially well?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Okay, so they’re going to run the ball. No surprise there. If there is a surprise, it’s that the run game is actually not very well balanced out by the passing game. So sell out to stop the run. It may not matter a great deal, but maybe it makes the difference between 300 and 200 rushing yards.

Defensive observations. Sheesh. First in the nation in rushing defense. Second in scoring defense. Fourth in total, fifth in interceptions. Top 10 in two other categories. No worse than 55th in anything. Top 25 in all but two categories. This presents a huge dilemma for the Vols, as their strength is John Kelly and the run game. Alabama is going to take that away and make you want to pass, but is that something that the Vols can actually do? And even if they can, do they really want to do that, make the game longer, and give the Alabama offense more time on the field against a tired defense? If you’re looking for answers, or even ideas, well, I’ll have to get back to you.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Oh, and they don’t turn the ball over, either. Great.

#BeatBamaAnyway

The Gameplan

Honestly, we’re looking at a huge David vs. Goliath matchup here, which means employing some non-traditional thinking. Once upon a time, Lane Kiffin used this strategy to nearly upset Alabama. It doesn’t mean you’re not playing to win; it’s recognizing that your best chance to win is to first make it close, and making it close means reducing the number of plays because they have an advantage in each and every one of them. Do something unexpected. Fake something. Take more risks on fourth down. Hit them with a rock in the forehead.

On defense, I think you absolutely sell out 100% to limiting Alabama’s run game, live with any passes down the field, and also redefine success so that you can keep your mind right all the way to the end of the game. Don’t get discouraged by them still succeeding running the ball against an all-out sell-out. Just make it more difficult than what they’re used to and see if maybe they get frustrated.

On offense, I don’t know. I think I’d still focus on running the ball even against the nation’s best run defense because it’s the only way to shorten the game. Alabama is better than Tennessee, and the longer the game, the more it will get out of hand. Get your defense as much rest as you can and start early. Use the entire play clock in between every play beginning with the very first one. Try to frustrate them by making them impatient, by making it excrutiatingly slow. Even if you end up going 3-and-out, at least you’ve maximized the rest for your defense and shortened the game, thereby maximizing the possibility that something crazy will happen and that it might make a difference.

Alabama is a 34-point favorite in this game, and for good reason.

#BeatBamaAnyway

---

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and South Carolina two weeks ago.

Prediction	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	21	165	215	380
South Carolina	27	150	220	370

 

Actual Results	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	9	120	133	253
South Carolina	15	194	129	323

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Tennessee -3.5, and the SPM picked South Carolina to win outright, so yes, the SPM won in Vegas this week.

After some sideline-watching Thursday and Friday and a noon-slate of appetizers, the Vols travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30 on CBS. The evening then features a couple of big national-interest games.

Here’s the Week 8 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols! Beat Bama Anyway!

Thursday, October 19

 

In case you suddenly find yourself interested in coaches, well, here are a couple.

Friday, October 20

 

Didn’t get your fill Thursday? Try again Friday!

Gameday, October 21

Get yourself your favorite pizza and settle in for a handful of noon appetizers, and then get ready for the big one at 3:30.

 

Noon slot

I don’t know. Something interesting could happen here. And if not, you still have your pizza.

Afternoon slot

Go Vols! Beat Bama Anyway!

Evening slot

You may need to just sit in a chair and stare at the TV Saturday night, so what better way to do it than with a couple of games of national interest?

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 8

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!