Sigh.

The Tennessee Volunteers fell to 4-6 overall and winless in the conference with a numbing 50-17 loss to the Missouri Tigers tonight in Columbia, Missouri. A more highly-touted roster kept it close in the first half, tying the game at 17 with just over a minute to play before halftime, but was utterly overwhelmed on both sides of the ball after that.

For a while, it seemed like maybe, just maybe, the Vols were going to be able to scrape together some magic. True freshman quarterback Will McBride, in his first start, surprisingly provided a bit of a missing element for the offense, scrambling several times for a much-needed first down, and he finished the game with 63 rushing yards despite multiple sacks that count against that total. And the defense seemed content to give up some rushing yards as a trade off for selling out to stop the vaunted Missouri passing attack. And it worked to keep the game tied. For a while.

But then everything fell apart again. Missouri started hitting long passes to complement their long rushing plays, and the Vols offense just shut down. John Kelly got the equivalent of a technical foul in basketball for saying something presumably unfriendly to an official. On a team with Kelly and Ty Chandler, McBride and his 63 yards led the team in rushing. He was sacked five times. He threw two interceptions. He fumbled once. Or twice. I’ve forgotten.

And he was the best player on the team.

Sigh.

The game got so out of hand that the TV commentators were obviously reaching for things to talk about to fill the fourth quarter of air time. And of course, they devoted a lot of that time to discussing Butch Jones’ job security and openly suggesting that the administration not delay due to the early signing period this year. When that got them only halfway through the fourth, they moved on to talking about the teams competing for the four spots in the College Football Playoff.

Good times for Vols fans.

Who knows when we’ll hear something definitive about the future of the coaching staff. There’s a new rumor on Twitter every five minutes or so if you enjoy being led around by your nose. I figure we’ll know when we know.

In the meantime, the team has two more games, and they need both of them for bowl eligibility and at least one of them to avoid the program’s first-ever eight-loss season. If you believe the odds, the margin will only get thinner next week after a loss to LSU, and the final game of the season against Vandy will be the last chance to avoid a historical low.

Sigh.

The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers tonight at 7:30 p.m. on the SEC Network. From earlier this week, we know that Missouri is really good at passing the ball and at generating sacks and tackles for loss but not so good against the pass themselves, that the main guys to watch are quarterback Drew Lock, receiver J’Mon Moore, and defensive lineman Terry Beckner, Jr., that Tennessee’s roster features a lot more guys who were highly-recruited coming out of high school, and that it probably won’t matter because that 10.5-point spread in favor of Missouri looks about right to both eyeballs and machines. But, if the Vols can do these five things, they can certainly still pull out a win.

We’ll see you tonight at 7:30 right here. Until then, here’s today’s college football TV schedule and rotting guide for Vols fans (I’m leaving that typo because it made me laugh out loud). Also, don’t forget to submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game.

Go Vols.

• Kickoff: Nov. 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Watch online
• Listen online
• Live stats

Here’s the Week 11 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what might be of interest to a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Tuesday-Friday, November 7-10

There’s really not much of interest here all week, but it is football, so you know.

Gameday, November 11

This week will mark three night games in a row for the Vols, and I don’t know about you, but early Sunday mornings have been sleepy times for me this month. But there’s lots of good stuff with football noises on the television this Saturday, so man up.

Noon slot

Maybe it won’t matter much after the Tennessee-Missouri game this evening, but the LSU Tigahs are next, and so if you want to get a jump on what to expect for next week, here’s your chance.

Also in this time slot are the Florida Gators, and while I’m not a huge fan of schadenfreude, I do like anything that’s going to give the Vols an edge in the SEC East, so if they struggle and turn off recruits, too, well, our own problems may just keep us from feeling too bad about that.

And then there are a couple of big games, but one of them is in the Big 10, and . . . whatever, right? But if you love the process in Ames, the process will love you back.

Bonus: DVR that UCF game. You never know when it may come in handy.

Afternoon slot

All that stuff I said about Florida up there, same sentiment goes for Georgia. If Auburn winning means even one less blue chip commit for the Bulldogs, I’ll take it.

Vanderbilt plays at 4:00, and maybe we’ll want to know more about them, so keep them on the DVR, too, just in case. It could also turn into a Peek In game if Georgia-Auburn gets boring.

Evening slot

This time slot is going to test your fandom. Go Vols at 7:30 on the SEC Network against the Missouri Tigers, and all, but man, there are some good games and man that grass looks green. Root for Mississippi State to upset Alabama, and root for nice guy Mark Richt against the program everyone loves to hate. And that TCU at Oklahoma game just screams fireworks, so keep your eyes on it.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 11

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

Man, it sure is a good thing the Locks & Keys were out of town last weekend. Because while the Vols may have (finally) won, we sure didn’t when it came to predicting games. Better to keep that debauchery out of the public eye.

All we need to know is it was bad. Real bad.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is on a one-game winning streak! Let’s hope that doesn’t end this weekend, but it likely will against a Missouri team that has found its stride and annihilated Florida 45-16 last weekend. It isn’t like the Tigers are that good, but I’m not sure if you’ve been watching or not, but the Vols aren’t, either.

There’s no reason to visit the pre-Kentucky L&K from two weeks ago. I mean, the Vols lost, so you know they didn’t do very well with the keys. Things aren’t pretty on Rocky Top, so the Vols will travel all the way to Columbia, Missouri, this weekend and hope their misfortunate doesn’t follow them there.

Wake me up when there’s a new coach, amirite? Let’s take a look at the keys to beating Mizzou.

KEYS

Rekindle Rush Magic

The strength and conditioning woes helped ruin Jones’ career, and in no place have those shortcomings been more evident than on the offensive line.

With Brett Kendrick and Drew Richmond out again this week, it’s going to be slim pickings on the line again for the Vols. The good news for UT is Mizzou hasn’t been good against the run, allowing 181 yards on the ground per game. The Tigers also are giving up 33.8 points per game, though the Vols won’t approach that number.

If Will McBride is the quarterback, UT is going to have to run the ball successfully to win. That means a healthy dosage of John Kelly and Ty Chandler, both of which are capable of taking over games with just a little bit of blocking up front. It’s vital Tennessee has the run-first, run-often game plan and utilizes it to perfection if it’s going to win.

SLOW DOWN!

In building off the theme above, Tennessee must run the ball, control the clock, convert third downs and stay on the field.

The less Lock has the ball, the better for the Vols. UT’s secondary has been stout against the pass this year, leading the SEC allowing just 150 yards per game. But that number is deceptive. After all, why would any team ever pass the ball on Tennessee when you can straight-up run down its throat?

Mizzou will pass the ball, and it will have success doing so. That’s why the Vols need to play a 60-minute game of keep-away. Sustain drives, get first downs, score touchdowns. That’s the only way to win.

Ride McBride

After Butch Jones called Jarrett Guarantano “probable” earlier this week, he later said the redshirt freshman is a game-time decision. That means it could be true freshman McBride’s game.

That’s scary news, yeah. Though McBride entered the Southern Miss game and didn’t bat an eye, he wasn’t exactly effective. Now, he could be leading a putrid offense in a game where the Vols absolutely must score points to hang with the high-flying passing attack of the Tigers. Can McBride throw the ball downfield? If he can, do the Vols have anybody who can catch it?

Mizzou has the league’s 13th-rated pass defense. They’re awful. UT must find a way to display some sort of vertical game.

Opportunity is now here

Say what you want about Bob Shoop’s tenure at Tennessee, but the defense has done its part in the past two games. It looks like things are finally beginning to click on that side. Not only are the Vols playing well, they’re getting the football back for their offense, too.

Though they lost 29-26 to Kentucky, they forced four Wildcats turnovers (which makes it even more inexplicable that they found a way to lose). Against Southern Miss, UT got two more turnovers, turning both into touchdowns. In those two games, the Vols didn’t have a single turnover.

Tennessee must turn Mizzou over to win this game. The Tigers have youth running the ball and will try to advance the ball downfield through the air. That’s where UT will have to bait Lock and get some big plays. If they do, they can win.

Remember who you freaking are

Saw a crazy tweet today that underlines just how deep-rooted Tennessee’s player development issues are. In the past four recruiting classes, UT has seven 5-star players and Mizzou has zero. The Vols have 48 4-stars, and the Tigers have 11. Mizzou has 20 2-star players, and the Vols have just 3.

Yet Mizzou is favored by 11 points.

Ouch.

Forget that Jones is the coach; this UT team is more talented than Mizzou. And Vanderbilt later this year. The Vols were more talented than Kentucky, but that didn’t matter. It needs to start mattering.

Play like you’re Tenne-freaking-ssee.

LOCKS

I guess we can’t really call them “locks” anymore after the past two weeks. Even though you can’t see last week’s results, trust me, they were awful. I need to get off the schneid. They were just as bad two weeks ago, when we did log them. I went 2-6 to spiral my record to 32-33-1 on the season.

I desperately need a good week again. Right now, we’re down (fictitious) money. Let’s revisit the carnage.

First of all, I thought two terrible offenses in Tennessee and Kentucky wouldn’t approach 46, but UK wound up winning 29-26 as the Vols somehow found a way to cross the goal line multiple times when they hadn’t for 14 quarters. Who knew?

I wish we could just forget about two of the games I picked, but, alas, we couldn’t I actually picked Louisville to win by a lot over Wake Forest though it was just 2.5 point favorites. The Cardinals were embarrassed. So was Arizona State, who lost 48-17 against USC. I guess after the wins over Arizona and Arizona State the past two weeks, the Trojans finally have woken up. How in the world did Appalachian State not beat UMass by more than three??? The Minutemen actually won 30-27. Kansas didn’t beat Kansas State, but the Jayhawks only lost 30-20, easily covering a 24.5-point spread. And I picked Texas A&M over Mississippi State at home. The Aggies didn’t.

The wins are a lot easier to cover because there were only two of them. Arizona was a three-point underdog to Washington State, but the Cougars had no answer for Khalil Tate in a 58-37 Wildcats win. Also, the fighting Lane Kiffins were 6.5-point favorites over Western Kentucky and won 42-28.

Let’s try to win some pride back this week.

1. UConn +40 against Central Florida: I know that Connecticut isn’t a very good football team. But the Huskies are a FORTY-point underdog against UCF. Maybe that’s going to happen, and yes, I know UConn’s defense is bad. But Rhett Lashlee’s offense averages 25 points a game. I don’t see this being 65-25. It’ll be ugly, but not 40 points ugly.
2. Florida-South Carolina under 45.5: Florida can’t score a lick. Last week, the Gators managed just 16 points against an awful Missouri defense. Now, they play against a South Carolina team that is quietly pretty good. This game will wind up 27-14 or something like that.
3. Michigan State +16.5 over Ohio State: Michigan State gets zero respect. A week after beating Penn State, the Spartans must play Ohio State. The Buckeyes will win and represent the division in the Big Ten Championship Game, but it’ll be close.
4. Texas Tech-Baylor over 72.5: This has 85 points written all over it. Just bet the over, sit back and enjoy all the scoring.
5. Florida Atlantic -6.5 over Louisiana Tech: Lane Kiffin is a volatile personality, and he shoved it to bettors last week by having his punter run out of the back of the end zone for a safety that cost the Owls the cover. But FAU also scores points, and La Tech hasn’t been good at it this year. The Owls will win and cover.
6. Notre Dame -3 over Miami: I don’t know why I don’t believe in the Hurricanes. I know by now I should. But I believe Notre Dame wins this game in South Bend and keeps churning forward.
7. Tennessee-Missouri under 61.5: Well, the last time I picked an under, UT and UK reached it easily. But there’s no way the Vols are contributing to getting that combined score to 62. No way.
8. West Virginia +1.5 over Kansas State: Early this season, I rode West Virginia. I know this is a road game in Manhattan where wacky things happen, but I’m rolling with Will Grier again.

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine and I disagreed last week, and the DNA won out over the bits and bytes. We agree on the outcome this week, but not on the spread, as the SPM is taking Tennessee and the points while I think Missouri covers despite Tennessee ostensibly having more talent on the field.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Missouri’s resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
• W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
• W9: Beat UConn, 52-12.
• W10: Beat Florida, 45-16.
• W11: Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 50th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is now 18th, so keep that disparity in mind as you look at the stats.

Stats

This weekend, the Vols will face the best passing offense they’ve seen all season but also the worst scoring defense they’ve seen all season. How does Missouri look otherwise? Read on.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 181.3 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Massachusetts, which is giving up 200.7 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 135 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Florida, which is allowing 172.8. Tennessee got 183 on the ground against Florida. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 160.

Missouri rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 237.3 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 169.2 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is getting 168.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is not very close at all. They’re averaging 278.4 rushing yards per game, and they got 272 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Missouri will get a little less than its average of 169 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense. Let’s call it 150.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 168.1 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 260.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is giving up 279.4 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 242 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 239.4 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 133 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 200 passing yards this weekend.

Missouri passing

Missouri is the best passing offense the Vols have faced all season. The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 150.0 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 314.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is getting 288.1 yards per game through the air, but got only 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with Missouri putting up about 240 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

This will be the worst scoring defense the Vols have played all season. Tennessee is averaging 20.8 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 33.6. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is allowing 30.9 points per game. However, Tennessee only got 17 against them. The most points Tennessee has scored this season in a non-overtime game against an FBS opponent is 26 (against Kentucky). They scored 28 against Georgia Tech in regulation. Their ceiling appears to be 42, but that came against FCS Indiana State. I’m thinking the Vols would normally score somewhere between those numbers (28 and 42), but that this offensive line is going to have trouble with Missouri’s defensive line, so I’m going with the low end and saying 31.

Missouri scoring

Tennessee is allowing 25.2 points per game. Missouri is averaging 36.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 31.8 points, and they got 28 against Tennessee in regulation. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 40.9 points and got 45 against Tennessee. I’m going with Missouri putting up about 43 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 160
• Missouri rushing yards: 150
• Tennessee passing yards: 200
• Missouri passing yards: 240
• Tennessee points: 31
• Missouri points: 43

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Missouri 33.3, Tennessee 24, a spread of Missouri -9.3.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The spread is Missouri -10.5, with an over/under of 61.5. That makes it look like Missouri, 36-26 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 35.4% chance of beating Missouri, and the S&P+ puts it at 28%, setting the game at Missouri, 33.7-23.7.

So the humans and machines are in general agreement on the 10.5-point spread, but the SPM is going with Tennessee and the points. Me, I’m taking Missouri to cover.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Southern Miss last week.

• Tennessee rushing yards: 135 (actually 95)
• Southern Mississippi rushing yards: 175 (actually 118)
• Tennessee passing yards: 200 (actually 115)
• Southern Mississippi passing yards: 130 (actually 161)
• Tennessee points: 23 (actually 24)
• Southern Mississippi points: 14 (actually 10)

Once again, those were my eyeball-adjusted predictions. The SPM projection on the score was Southern Miss 18.5, Tennessee 14.8.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Tennessee -6.5, and the SPM thought Southern Miss would win outright, so it lost when Tennessee covered. With human intervention, we went with Tennessee covering, so hooray for DNA, at least on this game. Overall, the SPM went 33-26 against the spread for the week, posting 55.93%. Over the four weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, 54.55%, and 55.93% for an overall rate of 57.87%.

So far this week, we’ve looked at what Missouri does well (and not so well) and which of their players are most important to their team. Now let’s take a look Tennessee’s and Missouri’s projected starters with each players’ class and published recruiting rankings. If you can’t see the entire chart embedded below, click here for full page:

As before, the color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom. The highest-rated player on either team is Tennessee’s Trey Smith, with a rating of .992.

Here’s the list of starters, sorted by recruiting ranking (full page here):

Observations

• The stars breakdown:
  • 5-stars: Tennessee 1, Missouri 1
  • 4-stars: Tennessee 10, Missouri 2
  • 3-stars: Tennessee 11, Missouri 18
  • 2-stars: Tennessee 0, Missouri 0
  • No rating: Tennessee 1, Missouri 0
• Tennessee has 16 of the 20 highest-rated players.
• Missouri’s highest-rated players are junior defensive tackle Terry Beckner, Jr., junior quarterback Drew Lock, and redshirt junior linebacker Brandon Lee.
• Missouri’s highest-rated unit is its offensive backfield with Lock and senior running back Ish Witter.
• Missouri’s lowest-rated unit is its offensive line.
• Surprisingly, Tennessee’s highest-rated unit is its offensive line, although that is largely due to Drew Richmond being included, and he is questionable for the game Saturday. Also, even if Richmond is in the lineup, there’s still a wide gap between he and Trey Smith on one hand and the other guys along the rest of the line.