Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

The Tennessee Volunteers were still into the game well into the fourth quarter this afternoon but ultimately gave way to the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, 38-12.

The game got off to a typically ominous start for Tennessee when Darrell Taylor sacked Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm on third-and-9 and caused him to fumble. The two most likely outcomes of a play like that are a Tennessee guy falling on the ball or a Georgia guy falling on the ball and the Bulldogs settling for a field goal attempt. Instead, the ball bounced right into the hands of Georgia tight end Isaac Nauta, who ran 31 yards for a touchdown. Of course.

Tennessee’s offense wasn’t exactly stymied in the first half, but they certainly stalled out without anything to show for it and were scoreless in the first half. Similarly, the defense was doing some good things but wasn’t exactly keeping Georgia from gaining yards. They forced a couple of punts and held the Bulldogs to a field goal before finally giving up the game’s first earned touchdown late in the first half. The teams went to the locker room with Georgia leading 17-0.

Georgia opened the second half with a touchdown, making the score 24-0 and threatening to runaway with it like we’d all feared, but Tennessee put together a 10-play, 75-yard drive on its first possession of the second half, capped by a 37-yard touchdown pass from Jarrett Guarantano to Josh Palmer.

In the most interesting part of the game, the Tennessee defense then held, the offense punted, and the defense held again, and then the Vols added another touchdown when Guarantano hooked up with Ty Chandler for a 35-yard touchdown.

At that point, it was a 12-point game (Georgia 24, Tennessee 12) with 11:10 to go in the fourth quarter. The Vols had the last two scores and its defense had forced two short drives that ended in punts for Georgia. But the Bulldogs sealed the game on their next possession with a 13-play, 75-yard drive that drained 7:39 off the clock, and that was the end of that.

A fumble by running back Jeremy Banks on Tennessee’s next play signaled the beginning of garbage time, as it gave Georgia a short field, another touchdown, and a final score of 38-12.

The bad

Even though the outcome of the game was in doubt for a longer period of time than anticipated, it was clear to both the eye and the box score that Georgia was the much better team and it was still another 26-point loss for the Vols. Georgia had 25 first downs to Tennessee’s 11, and they had 410 total yards to the Vols’ 209.

The Vols still started slow, still found themselves victim to The Weirdness, and still made several crucial mistakes. Marquez Callaway going out with an apparent concussion is very bad news for him and for the team as well. Also, there’s at least one guy in the secondary who appears to be actively avoiding contact.

The good

On the other hand, this is what the team looks like when they’re not turning the ball over an unnatural six times in a single game, and although it’s not yet up to standards, it’s not embarrassing. The guys appeared to be tougher. There was more falling forward, gaining a couple of yards at the end of a play rather than losing a couple. The offense scored some points against a terrific defense, and the defense held Georgia to a respectable 31 points until garbage time.

There’s still a lot of work to do, and there are still several challenging weeks ahead, but you can see the glimmers of something good beginning to take shape.

That video of Vols defensive coordinator Chris Rumph (starting at 13:59) talking about why he does what he does is one of my all-time favorite things. I’ve tried (and usually failed) many times to explain to friends and family that one of the reasons I love college football is that it’s simultaneously just a game and not just a game. Rumph gets at the same notion when he says that football is about life. It’s not just about tackling and sacks and the obvious football stuff, it’s also about who you are becoming while you’re doing what you’re doing.

To Rumph, his primary purpose isn’t to teach football but to disciple and mentor kids, and football is merely the context through which he does it.

That there is something underneath the surface of football that makes it even more special resonates with me as a fan. As much as I enjoy the games and everything that comes with them, I also beam with pride when I see evidence of the guys growing up before the cameras and the crowds. Call me a sap, I don’t care. The game and the media and the crowd can at times deliver some particularly cruel blows to these college kids, and I cheer every time they get back up, weather the storm, and get back to work chasing their dreams, stronger in life for the lessons they’ve learned on the field.

College football is great and fun on the surface, but it’s the below-the-surface stuff that keeps me coming back even when things aren’t going well on the field. It’s a bitter pill, but the truth is that sometimes – for players, fans, people in general – you grow more as a person when the results you’ve been striving and hoping for leave you disappointed. And the perseverance and determination make the success, when it comes, that much sweeter.

So, yeah. It’s not just about tackling and sacks and all the football stuff; it’s also about who you are becoming while you’re doing what you’re doing.

The fan experience

That truth applies to a multitude of contexts other than playing football, too, including merely watching people play football. I love the gamedays and the gameweeks and the moments and the winning when it comes, but often, when the appeal of those things wanes, I look underneath the surface for something to learn.

Suffice it to say, over the next month or so we Vols fans are going to have a lot of opportunities to learn some non-football stuff.

You can’t preempt pain

One of the things I’ve already learned over the course of 13 years of service as a long-suffering Vols fan blogging about the team is that you simply cannot dull pain just by bracing for it.

It’s not like we haven’t tried. As I said just a little over a month ago when anticipating this season’s mistakes, we often tell ourselves in advance of what we know will be challenging seasons that X number of wins is a reasonable expectation. We stoically brace for a loss before the game but then become enraged when we actually witness in real time the maddening details that contribute to that loss.

You can’t avoid the pain just by imagining it beforehand. You just can’t. You have to experience it.

Rumph would be quick to point out that this is as true in life as it is on the football field and in the stands. And one can help prepare you for the other. Pardon a brief digression into the personal while I explain.

Non-football stuff

Have you ever had to put a pet down? I have. It was a difficult but rational decision to conclude that we no longer had a choice but to relieve our beloved dog Oreo of her misery a couple of years ago. And yet I was totally unraveled by the details when the day came to actually do it. I hadn’t imagined standing over her whispering “You’re a good dog, you’re a good dog” over and over into her ear as her body relaxed on the table. I was prepared, but not for that.

Have you ever had a loved one on hospice? I knew my mom was going to lose her battle with cancer last year, but knowing it afforded no protection from the torment of the process. I was still completely undone sitting beside her, attempting to sing her favorite songs with a broken voice, wondering which of those difficult breaths would be her last. Knowing that day would come didn’t make it easier.

I dwelled on all of this last Sunday afternoon as I sat alone in an unsold tailgating chair in my Kingsport store after turning out the lights. I’d already known this past summer that the day would almost certainly come this fall that we’d have to close it down for good. I was at peace with knowing the time was approaching. But it didn’t actually happen until last weekend, and it sucked.

Life is going to throw you a bunch of crap in a variety of contexts, whether it’s something as serious as the loss of a loved one or something more trivial like watching your favorite sports team lose in spectacular new ways.

And even if you take the time to anticipate and prepare for the pain – in life, on the football field, in the stands –you can’t fully comprehend it until it comes time to experience it.

That’s the bad news, but there’s also good news: Anticipating and preparing for bad news and bad days can help you survive it, and when it’s over, you’ll be better for it.

Back to football

As I said earlier, football is just a game, and yet it’s also more than just a game. It’s about practicing and playing and cheering, and it’s about wins and losses and all of that other surface football stuff, yes. But it’s also about the underneath stuff, who we’re becoming while we’re doing what we’re doing. What we’re doing here is rooting for the Vols. It’s a relatively unimportant activity. But what important things might we learn while doing it?

By all accounts, the rebuilding Tennessee football team is headed for some potentially very bad days over the next month or so. No amount of knowing it, expecting it, or planning for it will shield us from the misery. It’s going to hurt. Absent some miracle (or just checking out as a fan), there’s no way around that.

What can we do about it? Hold on. Steel your resolve. Assume the crash position. Put a phonebook in your pants. Do whatever you need to do to get ready for a rough ride.

It’s not going to be fun, but better days await on the other side.

And when it’s finally over, we might just be stronger, wiser, and better for it.

For when it’s really important.

Ready?

Steady.

Go.

We’re now to the point of the season where we can rely primarily on 2018 data, although the sample set is still small enough to view it with a healthy dose of skepticism. So, while we say goodbye to 2017 data, our stewpot still includes eyes and guts to go along with the 2018 data.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

SPM: Georgia 37, Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Georgia 45, Tennessee 13

Tennessee rushing yards: 60

Georgia rushing yards: 200

Tennessee passing yards: 150

Georgia passing yards: 220

Tennessee points: 13

Georgia points: 45

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 205.0 rushing yards per game, while Georgia is giving up 118.8 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Georgia, is Florida (although it’s not very close at all), which is giving up 187.8 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them.

Surprisingly, West Virginia is actually better than Georgia at defending the run so far this season, allowing only 118.7 rushing yards per game. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against the Mountaineers.

Looking at things from Georgia’s perspective, they held South Carolina — which is averaging 196.7 yards per game on the ground — to only 54. Oof.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Georgia is 60.

Georgia rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 134.8 rushing yards per game, while the Georgia run game is averaging 250.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, but again, it’s not a very good comparison, as the Gators are getting only 189.0 yards per game on the ground. They ran for 201 against Tennessee.

Georgia will be the best rushing offense the Vols have played so far this season. Oof.

Looking through Georgia’s eyes, they ran for 271 against South Carolina and 185 against Missouri. Both of these results were far above (not far from double) what those teams usually give up on the ground (163 for South Carolina and 102.3 for Missouri).

All of that said, I’m guessing Georgia puts up 200 yards rushing against the Vols on Saturday.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 192.8 passing yards per game, and Georgia is allowing 173.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 185.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP. They’re allowing 163.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 167 against them.

Viewing things from Georgia’s perspective doesn’t shed much light on the subject.

My guess is that Tennessee will net somewhere around 150 passing yards this weekend.

Georgia passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 180.8 passing yards per game. Georgia is getting 227.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 194.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 373.7 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee.

When playing South Carolina, Georgia put up 30 more yards than the average that South Carolina is giving up (they got 202).

I’m going with Georgia putting up about 220 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 29.5 points per game, and Georgia is allowing 13.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 16.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 12.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. So, the Vols appear to be doing a little better than its opponents’ averages.

On the other hand, South Carolina is averaging 34.3 points per game but got only 17 against Georgia.

My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 13 points against the Bulldogs.

Georgia scoring

Tennessee is allowing 22.5 points per game. Georgia is averaging 44.5, making them the best scoring offense the Vols have seen this season. Oof.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 42.3 points, and they got 40 against Tennessee.

South Carolina’s defense is giving up an average of 23.3 points per game, and Georgia got 41 against them. Oof.

I’m going with Georgia basically hitting their average of 45 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says Georgia 37, Tennessee 15, a spread of 22.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Georgia 45, Tennessee 13, a spread of 32.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Georgia has a 93.5% chance of winning and puts the score at Georgia 44.9, Tennessee 18.6, a spread of 26.3.

The Vegas spread favors Georgia by between 31 and 32, with an over/under of 51.5-52, which converts to something like Georgia 42, Tennessee 10.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 2.6% chance of winning.

Oof.

 

 

 

Thursday

 

Gameday

 

At noon this Gameday, West Virginia has what is probably its first real test of the season when the Mountaineers meet No. 25 Texas Tech. West Virginia looking good may make us feel a little better. You can also tune into future opponent Alabama’s game against Louisiana if you like horror movies and don’t want to feel better.

Then it’s Vols-Bulldogs at 3:30 on CBS, with Tennessee a huge underdog on the road against the first of three Top 10 teams in a row. Woo. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s next opponent, Auburn, is also in action at 3:30, so if you want to both watch the Vols live and do a little scouting for next week, fire up the DVR to catch the Tigers. Spoiler alert: They’re going to look good against Southern Miss.

Also relevant to Tennessee at 3:30 is Florida traveling to No. 23 Mississippi State. Opinions will differ on this, but I’m hoping that the Bulldogs beat the scales off the Gators. Sure, the Gators winning or doing well might make Vols fans feel better about last week, but I don’t want to finish last in the SEC East, and I want no good things for Gators while we’re both trying to climb out of our respective craters. Hail State.

The evening slate is full to the brim with Top 25 matchups, the headliner being either No. 4 Ohio State at No. 9 Penn State or No. 7 Stanford at No. 8 Notre Dame, depending on your wiring. South Carolina also travels to No. 17 Kentucky, so that’s a good one to both channel hop live and DVR for future reference.

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