Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

The statistical comps for this Saturday’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers are all over the place. Part of the noise is likely due to Tennessee’s accelerated improvement curve under Jeremy Pruitt.

Another factor contributing to the noise, though, appears to be solely on Missouri’s side. The Tigers seem to be as likely to pile up numbers by rolling over opponents when they find something that works as they are to simply get beat by teams as good or better than they are. They scored 65 points against Memphis but only 14 against Kentucky. Even against similarly good teams, there’s a huge variance: Against No. 1 Alabama, they scored only 10 points, but against No. 2 Georgia, they put up 29.

So, the SPM thinks that Missouri is going to easily cover the Vegas spread this week, but I’m highly suspicious of its nearly 23-point spread. I’m still thinking Missouri wins, but in a much closer game. And yet, if the Tigers find something they can exploit against the Vols, they’ll convert that into a bunch of points.

Predictions

SPM: Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8 (Missouri, -22.7)

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Missouri 31, Tennessee 27 (Missouri, -4)

Tennessee rushing yards: 180

Missouri rushing yards: 110

Tennessee passing yards: 240

Missouri passing yards: 280

Tennessee points: 27

Missouri points: 31

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 136.4 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 134.1 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Kentucky, which is giving up 141.4 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 215 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Georgia, which is allowing 131.0. Tennessee got 66 on the ground against Georgia.

I believe the Vols’ run game has improved since Georgia, so I’m angling for something closer to last week. My guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 180.

Missouri rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 195.9 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is getting 187.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 77 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 203.1 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee.

So, early in the season, Florida got its average. Last week, the Vols held Kentuck and Benny Snell to less than half their average.

On the other hand, Missouri generally gets more than their opponents are giving. Against Memphis (giving up an average of 169.1), they got 273. Against Purdue (giving up 144.8), they got 233. This will become a theme as we continue to look at the numbers: When the Missouri Tigers find something that works, they milk that sucker dry. But when they struggle and they have no other options, they’ll just get beat.

So, it seems to me that Missouri’s numbers seem to be a little inflated due simply getting beat some of the time but also putting success on repeat when they can. Is Tennessee a team that can disrupt their playlist? That’s the main question this weekend, I think.

My guess on that all-important question Saturday is that this Tennessee team at this point in the season can play with these guys, so I’m going with Missouri having to work and being limited to about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 204.5 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 276.5, the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 233.7 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 172 against them. That almost seems like a different season at this point.

So, I think Tennessee may get well above its average in the passing game this week. Let’s call it 240 passing yards this weekend for the good guys.

Missouri passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 205.1 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 277.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 250.7 yards per game through the air, and they got 152 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 323.7 passing yards per game and got 327 against Tennessee.

The Gamecocks managed not far above their average against Tennessee, and even high-powered Alabama only got its average against Pruitt’s guys.

I’m going with Missouri getting somewhere around its average of 280 passing yards against Tennessee this weekend.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 27.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is allowing 28.7 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte. They’re allowing 25.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them.

I’m thinking that Charlotte game was an outlier — a Tennessee team not yet good enough to sleepwalk through any game still falling prey to the temptation.

However, while the Vols offense has shown some flashes this season, they’re still really only good for a few touchdowns and a field goal or two per game, so my prediction is that Tennessee will get about what Missouri is giving, namely 24-27 points. Let’s call it 27 because I just drank my coffee.

Missouri scoring

Tennessee is allowing 24.7 points per game. Missouri is averaging 35.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 31.0 points, and they got 47 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.0 points and got 38 against Tennessee.

Does all of that mean that good teams put up more points than usual against Tennessee? The Florida game featured six turnovers. Georgia, well, Missouri’s not Georgia, right? Let’s hope. But against good defenses — Florida notwithstanding — they’re generally scoring between 28 and 35 points.

I’m going with Missouri putting up about 31 points in Neyland against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Missouri by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 55.5-56.5, which converts to somewhere around 31-25, Missouri.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 32.2% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 34.8, Tennessee 26.8, a spread of -8.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 31.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8, a spread of -22.7.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Missouri 31, Tennessee 27, a spread of -4.

There’s not a lot going on prior to Saturday, so if you need to get some stuff done, use your Thursday and Friday well.

Gameday

 

The noon slate features a couple of past Vols’ opponents in Florida and Kentucky, but both should roll against lesser opponents. If you’re looking for something that might be a bit more enjoyable, check out No. 12 Syracuse and No. 3 Notre Dame at 2:30 on NBC. I know, it’s dumb for it to be on at 2:30, but hey.

Tennessee hosts Missouri at 3:30 on CBS, so that’s your main appointment for the day, but keep an eye on the score in the game between No. 9 West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Could be some fireworks there.

In the evening, evenly matched No. 16 Iowa State and No. 15 Texas meet for what should be a good game, and No. 24 Cincinnati has what may be the best chance to knock off an undefeated No. 11 UCF.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

My new expected win total:

• This week: 6.1
• Last week: 5.3
• After Week 9: 5.55
• After Week 8: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

With the Vols looking good this week against Kentucky, and with Missouri and Vanderbilt coming down to the wire, I’m changing the Missouri game back to 50% (from 40% last week) and Vanderbilt back to 60% (from 50% last week.) They are basically both tossups, but the Vols have shown that they can get things done. Whether they can do it consistently yet is the question.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Beat Charlotte, 14-3
• Beat No. 11 Kentucky, 24-7
• Missouri
• Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in Big 12, #7

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
• Beat TCU, 47-10
• Oklahoma St.
• Oklahoma

These guys are legit. We’ll know just how legit over the next couple of weeks.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Beat Mercer, 21-18
• Bye
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-9 (1-5), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Beat Rice, 34-26
• Lost to MTSU, 48-32
• W Kentucky
• Southern Miss

Um, not legit.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #15

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Lost to Missouri, 38-17
• Beat South Carolina, 35-31
• Idaho
• Florida State

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
• Beat Auburn, 27-10
• UMass
• Georgia Tech

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
• Lost to Georgia, 27-10
• Liberty
• Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 10-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
• Beat # 16 Mississippi State, 24-0
• The Citadel
• Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 5-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
• Lost to Florida, 35-31
• Chattanooga
• Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-6 (3-3), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
• Lost to Marshall, 30-13
• FIU
• FAU

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #20

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Lost to Georgia, 34-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-7
• MTSU
• Louisville

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (2-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
• Beat Vanderbilt, 33-28
• Tennessee
• Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-6 (1-5), 7th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Bye
• Lost to Missouri, 33-28
• Ole Miss
• Tennessee

The SPM was the bearer of bad news last week in advance of the Tennessee-Charlotte game, and although you can’t really say it nailed the thing, it was saner than most of us Tennessee fans.

This week, the SPM bucks the trend again, giving the Vols a better chance to win and calling for a closer game than any of Vegas, S&P+, or FPI. It still likes Kentucky to pull out the victory but thinks it will be a slightly closer contest than many think.

Predictions

SPM: Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 70

Tennessee passing yards: 200

Kentucky rushing yards: 200

Kentucky passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 17

Kentucky points: 20

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 127.7 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 133.2 per game. That’s nearly identical to Auburn, which is giving up 133.9 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 68 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Alabama, which is allowing 102.1. Tennessee got 31 on the ground against Alabama. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 70.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 161.1 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 199.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 184.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 201 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 224.0 rushing yards per game and got 218 against Tennessee. Assuming Benny Snell plays (he’s “probable”), I’m guessing Kentucky will get about 200 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 205.3 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 178.6. That’s almost identical to Florida, which is giving up 179.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 208 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 172.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will basically get its average of around 200 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 207.3 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 156.8, which makes it the least productive passing offense the Vols have played all season (117th in the nation). The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 170.4 passing yards per game and got 39 against Tennessee. Based on all of that, I’m going with Tennessee limiting Kentucky to about 90 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Kentucky is allowing 15.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 16.4 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 14.1 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Kentucky.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.7 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is averaging 20.6 points, and they got 3 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.3 points and got 24 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Kentucky by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 42.5-43, which converts to somewhere around 24-18, Kentucky.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 33.7% chance of winning and puts the score at Kentucky 28.8, Tennessee 21.5, a spread of -7.3.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 33.5% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15, a spread of only -4.3.

After looking even closer at the numbers, I’m going with Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17, a spread of -3.