Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

If you’ve been following along the last couple of weeks, you know that we’ve been looking closely at the line of scrimmage, particularly from a size perspective. Two weeks ago, we spent most of our time trying to determine if Tennessee had the right size guys along the defensive front, and Wednesday we looked at offensive line continuity. Today, we’ll look at the size of Tennessee’s offensive line.

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2017

Because of the aforementioned continuity problems, identifying Tennessee’s “starting lineup for the 2017 season” is problematic. As noted in that post, there were 11 different starters at the five positions that year, and four of the five positions were manned by three different starters during the course of the season. The last one wasn’t better, but worse, with six different guys showing up in the start chart at left guard that fall.

With all of that in mind, here’s what we came up with as the 2017 offensive line starters and their weights:

That looks like a pretty hefty offensive line, especially when Kendrick was in at right tackle. How did it compare to last fall?

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2018

There was better continuity last fall, but the heft took a hit, primarily at the guard positions:

With Jahmir Johnson and Nathan Niehaus both well under 300 pounds, it looks like size could have been a fairly significant factor in the lack of improvement along the line in Pruitt’s first season.

The projected cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2019

The good news is that the line is almost certain to get bigger again this fall and, if things play out the right way, it could get A LOT bigger.

Here’s our best guess at the starting lineup for 2019:

First things first: Everybody there is over 300 pounds, so woo for that.

That lineup is based on several assumptions, though. The first is that Brandon Kennedy will re-win the starting position at center and that Johnson — who started 11 games at the position last year — will slide over to guard. That displaces Jahmir Johnson, who started 11 games at left guard in 2018, but I’m moving him out because he’s currently listed at only 270 pounds on the official roster. He may be good, and he may be experienced, but if he’s only 270, I don’t think he makes the cut on a line with more options this year. 247Sports says that Johnson is now up to 297 pounds, but all of the official information is showing that he’s actually lost weight from last season, not gained it. If he is approaching 300, though, then I think he stays in the mix with several other guys.

Other assumptions are (1) that Wanya Morris does indeed win the job at left tackle, for which he was obviously being groomed this spring, (2) that Trey Smith’s health issues will keep him off the field, which is a real shame, and (3) that Darnell Wright not enrolling early means he won’t be able to displace some of the guys who not only got experience last year but also gained weight this offseason.

But now let’s see what happens if we make some different assumptions:

If Smith is able to play, he’ll likely start, and if Wright lives up to his billing and can get out of the gate quickly, he may be able to relegate several of last year’s starters to the two-deep. If both of those things happen, Tennessee has a 1,579-pound offensive line staffed by big dudes from end to end.

Is that good?

But how does a 1,535-pound (or a 1,579-pound) line compare to Tennessee’s main rivals? We’ll look at that next.

Last week, we spent some time looking closely at the importance of size at certain defensive positions. We found that bigger is better along the defensive front and that Tennessee was not only getting bigger, the Vols’ defensive front is likely going to be just as big as Alabama’s and Georgia’s this fall.

All of that made me want to take a closer look at the other side of the line of scrimmage as well. After all, you would think that if bigger is better in the defensive trenches then size would also be important for the guys going up against them.

As I started to gather the information, though, I got sidetracked by noticing something else that may be of equal importance, namely continuity at the offensive line positions. And man, have the Vols had trouble with that.

Offensive line continuity in 2017

The 2017 season was particularly terrible from a continuity perspective. Only two offensive linemen started double-digit games. Trey Smith started all 12, and Jashon Robertson started 10. Drew Richmond — who started 7 games — was the only other player to start more than half the time.

The rest was basically a non-profit board committee. Coleman Thomas started 5, and Brett Kendrick, Ryan Johnson, and Devante Brooks all started 4. Jack Jones and Marcus Tatum each started 3, Riley Locklear started 2, and Venzell Boulware started in one game. That’s 11 different starters at only five offensive line positions.

It’s also ugly when you look at it from a positional perspective. The most stable position was right guard, at which Smith started 8 games. But even that spot was occupied by two other guys for the other four games. Ryan Johnson and Locklear each got the nod twice.

The story is essentially the same at left tackle. Richmond started there for 7 games, but the other five games had Smith there three times and Kendrick there twice.

It just gets worse from there. Here are the starters at center: Robertson (6), Thomas (5), Ryan Johnson (1). At right tackle: Kendrick (5), Brooks (4), Tatum (3).

If you’re keeping count, that’s three different starters at each of the right tackle, right guard, center, and left tackle positions.

But left guard outdid them all. It was a revolving door on Red Bull with six different guys showing up there as starters during the season.

Offensive line continuity in 2018

Things did get better from a continuity perspective in 2018. Three players started double-digit games: Drew Richmond (12), Jahmir Johnson (11), and Ryan Johnson (11). Three more — Trey Smith (7), Jerome Carvin (6), and Nathan Niehaus (6) — started more than half of the games, and Marcus Tatum started five times. Brandon Kennedy started the first game before being lost for the season. Where the Vols rotated in 11 different starters in 2017, they used only eight in 2018.

There was a lot less moving around from position to position last fall as well. Richmond started all 12 games at right tackle, and Johnson & Johnson both started at their respective positions of left guard and center for 11 of 12 games.

Even the other two positions were relatively stable despite having to be manned by more than one guy. Smith started 7 games at left tackle, but when he went out, Tatum took over for the other five. And at right guard, 11 games were handled by only two guys — Niehaus and Carvin. That was the only position occupied by more than two starters over the course of the season, and the third guy filled in for only one game.

Lost in Translation

Admittedly, the improved continuity in 2018 over 2017 didn’t really do much to improve the offense overall last fall. The team was last in the SEC and near the bottom nationally in total offense both seasons. The only real improvement was in Sacks Allowed, which went from 12th in the SEC and 113th nationally in 2017 to 8th in the SEC and 47th nationally. Passing Offense also improved a bit. But most everything else was still a certifiable mess.

This is likely due to the fact that offensive line continuity is only one of many factors impacting offensive line play and that line play is only one of many factors in overall offensive performance. We’ll take a look at some of those other factors in subsequent posts.

Gameday on Rocky Top 2019 hits the newsstands all over the state of Tennessee (and select locations in neighboring states) sometime late next week, but as a reader of this website, you can get it right now at a discount and with free shipping to boot. Use code GRT2019 for $2 off.

The vast majority of these are going to end up on the newsstands, but we’ve reserved a few hundred copies for direct sales, and they arrived here yesterday. You can get them directly from us earlier and at a discount, and you don’t even have to leave your house.

As always, our Gameday magazine is More of Your Favorite Team and No Ads. Go ahead and count the pages and compare it to the others on the newsstands. Most preseason publications try to cover every team, which is cool and all, but it means you’re paying for content you’re probably not even reading. We narrow our focus and go deeper on the teams you care most about and carefully select the articles so we’re not printing stuff you’re probably going to ignore. In Gameday on Rocky Top, we have 48 pages of content devoted exclusively to the 2019 Tennessee Volunteers, and the other 64 pages focus on the Vols’ 2019 opponents, along with their competition in the SEC and the national Top 25. This narrower focus means you’re not paying for pages you’re not reading. Our publication is still currently ad-free as well, meaning you’re also not paying for content you’re trying to ignore. 🙂

The newsstand price is $12.99, but while supplies last you can get $2 off and free shipping if you get it directly from us. To get the discount, use the following coupon code at checkout:

COUPON CODE: GRT2019

As always, we had an awesome time putting this together for you this year. The conversation we have about the cover every year is one of my favorite discussions each and every time. As you can see, we settled on an image of Guarantano because it’s an awesome picture from our photographer Bryan Lynn and LC Action Photos and because Guarantano’s the point man in the Search for the Tipping Point, a phrase that we consider the theme of the season. If you’re not already familiar with Malcolm Gladwell’s book The Tipping Point, go Google it for the context. The short explanation as it applies to Rocky Top this year is this: Pruitt has made a lot positive changes this offseason. He’s hired Chaney, Ansley, and Martin. He’s infused the offensive line with some incredible talent (albeit young). He’s avoided a potential catastrophe along the defensive line of scrimmage, and he’s now poised to reap the benefits of moving immediately to the 3-4 and throwing some young guys into the fire early last year. The potential has been there, but it’s been trapped in a bottleneck, impeded by problems that limited the effectiveness of everything else. And with just a few more positive changes in those areas this offseason, we’re hoping to see a Tipping Point, the point at which everything finally clicks.

Go Vols.

Last week, we showed why your intuition that bigger was better along the defensive front was indeed true, and then gave you some good news, namely that Tennessee’s defensive front was getting bigger under Jeremy Pruitt.

We also know, though, that making progress isn’t the same as achieving your goals. After all, you can improve dramatically and still finish in last place. You could double the size of my eight-year-old daughter, but she’s still not going to be very effective at trying to slow down D’Andre Swift.

So, where do the Vols stand relative to the competition when it comes to the cumulative size of its defensive front? Is it the size it actually needs to be, or does it still have a ways to go?

More good news: Tennessee’s projected starting defensive front seven is now the size it needs to be.

2019 defensive front weights for Tennessee and its SEC opponents

Below is a list of the cumulative weight of Tennessee’s projected starting defensive front seven for 2019, along with those of its 2019 SEC opponents. Beware, these are based on projected starting lineups, and there’s necessarily a lot of guesswork involved in making such projections. But I’ve found that swapping one or two guys out for each other generally doesn’t produce a dramatic difference in the cumulative weight of the entire front seven. Unless you’re Kentucky and you have a whale in the middle, in which case it matters a lot. And in any event, informed guessing is all we have at this point.

Here’s the list:

Tennessee in the top tier

The cumulative weight of Tennessee’s projected starting front seven on defense for 2019 is essentially identical to that of both Alabama and Georgia. There’s a signifcant gap between those three teams and the rest of the teams on the list, as the Big Three are all around 1,890 pounds, and the next tier — Kentucky and Missouri — are between 1,840 and 1,854. As alluded to above, Kentucky’s is impacted greatly by monstrous 361-pound Quinton Bohanna. If you substitute a normally-large nose tackle for him, the team’s cumulative weight drops all the way down to around 1,800 pounds. That is one big dude.

The next tier includes Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, which range from 1,810 to 1,815 pounds. The Gators are in their own category, down at 1,785 pounds, apparently preferring speed over heft at this point.

The Vols’ projected lineup

As we said last week, we’re basing Tennessee’s number here on a projected starting lineup that looks like this:

In my mind, that’s the most reasonable projection, but it does include some assumptions, including that Aubrey Solomon’s request for immediate eligibility is approved and that both he and No. 1 JUCO DT Williams earn the starting spots with Gooden. If that’s all true, then Tennessee has three 300-pounders starting on the defensive line of scrimmage. Not even Alabama has that. Georgia is the only other team on this list with three projected starters over the 300-pound threshold.

Mission accomplished in short order

In 2017, before Pruitt arrived, the front seven weighed in at 1,817 pounds, which would put them in the third tier on the above list with Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. In Pruitt’s Year 1, they were 1,866 pounds, which would put them at the top of the second tier with Kentucky and Missouri but still far from the top.

But now, in Pruitt’s Year 2, the cumulative weight of his projected starting defensive front seven looks no different than that of Alabama and Georgia.

To be sure, there’s a lot more to effective play along the defensive front than size, and the guys still need to develop all of the requisite techniques and skills needed to become an elite defensive front.

But if there are boxes to be checked on the way to that goal, consider this one checked. Tennessee’s defensive front now has the right size guys.

Yesterday, we showed how and why bigger is better along the defensive front. It’s true. Size matters, at least for defensive tackles, ends, and linebackers. It means the offense can’t push you around; they have to go around you to the locations of your choosing. It means the defensive backs can do their jobs first instead of making themselves vulnerable by overhelping in run support. It gets offenses off schedule, forcing them into difficult down-and-distance situations.

It’s not absolutely necessary, and it’s absolutely not sufficient, but heft is a significant factor in the competence of a team’s defensive front. As a general rule, you want the cumulative weight of the seven guys closest to the line of scrimmage to be 1,800 pounds or more.

How do the Tennessee Volunteers look by this metric? Pretty good, actually, and it’s getting even better.

The 2017 season: Prior to Pruitt

In 2017, the year before Jeremy Pruitt arrived, Tennessee’s starting defensive front weighed in at 1,817 pounds. At 295, Kendal Vickers wasn’t the biggest guy on the roster, but the fact that he started every game at one of the tackle spots meant he was the best option there. Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle took turns next to Vickers at the other tackle spot, McKenzie starting eight games and Tuttle starting four. Both of these guys were huge, McKenzie at 320 and Tuttle at 308.

Still operating as a base 4-3 defense, there were two defensive end spots in 2017, and the season’s starters were some combination of Kyle Phillips, Jonathan Kongbo, and Darrell Taylor. Those guys were 263, 264, and 254, respectively. After Cortez McDowell was lost for the season, the starting linebackers were almost exclusively some combination of Quart’e Sapp (222), Daniel Bituli (235), and Colton Jumper (229).

Averaging the weights where necessary for positions occupied at different times by different players, that puts the cumulative defensive front seven weight at 1,817 pounds, just over the 1,800-pound threshold. It’s also squarely in the middle of yesterday’s table listing the Top 20 defenses of 2009 and their cumulative defensive front weights.

As proof that just being big doesn’t make you good, the 2017 team finished only 10th in the SEC and 81st in the nation in total defense. But they were big enough to be good. Put another way, weight wasn’t the problem in 2017, something you probably already suspected.

The 2018 season: Pruitt’s Year 1

Things were already better in Jeremy Pruitt’s very first season, as his first defensive front weighed in at 1,866 pounds. Shy Tuttle had lost a little weight from 2017, but he was still 300 pounds, and he started every game at nose tackle in Pruitt’s 3-4 base defense. Kyle Phillips started every game at one of the defensive end positions, and he’d added ten pounds to his frame to weigh in at 273. The other defensive end position was manned by the massive Alexis Johnson, who was listed at 314 pounds. He started every game as well.

The four linebacker spots were primarily Darrell Taylor and Jonathan Kongbo on the outside and Daniel Bituli and Darrin Kirkland, Jr. on the inside. Taylor and Kongbo had both moved from defensive end to outside linebacker and had both lost some weight for the move, but they were the right size for their new positions. Taylor was 247 and Kongbo was 254. Bituli had gained almost 10 pounds and was at 244, and Kirkland, coming off a medical redshirt, was 234.

That made the front seven 1,866 pounds. If you put them on the 2009 list, they would have been the fourth-heaviest front seven that season, behind only Alabama, Florida, and LSU.

The defense was better that year, too, although still far from where they wanted to be. The finished the season 9th in the SEC and 49th in the nation in total defense. After allowing an average of 412.9 yards per game in 2017, they allowed only 377.4 in 2018. Rushing defense, in particular, improved dramatically. In 2017, the team allowed 251.3 rushing yards per game, putting them dead last in the SEC and 125th in the nation. But last year, they were 9th in the SEC and 52nd in the nation, allowing only 154.5 rushing yards per game.

The upcoming season: Pruitt’s Year 2

It looks like Tennessee’s defensive front seven is growing yet again this year. Due to the graduation of all of last year’s starters on the line and the uncertain status of Kirkland, we can’t know this fall’s starting lineup for sure yet, but making some reasonable assumptions and looking at the roster suggests that the cumulative weight of the starting front seven could creep up to a full 1,889 pounds this season.

Emmitt Gooden is almost certain to start along the defensive line, as he’s the only returning lineman with any starts to his name. He’s currently listed at 302 pounds, which is a good start.

Predicting what the NCAA is going to decide about transfers’ immediate eligibility requests is riskier than picking games against the spread, but if you were betting, you’d put your money on Michigan transfer Aubrey Solomon being eligible to play this fall for the Vols. The former 5-star recruit with experience playing for the Wolverines is walking into a wide-open opportunity on Rocky Top, so if he’s eligible, he’s almost certain to start as well. He’s 306 pounds.

The third lineman is anybody’s guess at this point. The candidates include Kingston Harris (312), Greg Emerson (310), Kurott Garland (303), Matthew Butler (285), and John Mincey (280), but my money is on Savion Williams, who’s a monster at 315 pounds and the nation’s top JUCO recruit at the position this cycle. If the defensive line starters are Gooden, Solomon, and Williams, Tennessee suddenly has three 300-pounders on the line of scrimmage.

Darrell Taylor will man one of the OLB positions, and he’s currently listed at 255 pounds, up eight from last year. Daniel Bituli will be one of the other guys, and he’s listed at 243, essentially the same weight as he was last year.

If Kirkland decides to play this fall instead of using the time to rehab and ready himself for the NFL Draft, he’ll play as well. He’s listed at 225, down even from last season.

If Kirkland does not play, there will be two starting spots at linebacker up for grabs. Here are the guys vying for them (in order of weight): Kivon Bennett (251), Jordan Allen (249), Quavaris Crouch (242), Deandre Johnson (241), Shanon Reid (230), Henry To’oto’o (230), Will Ignont (229), J.J. Peterson (228), and Solon Page III (220). If I had to guess, I’d say Ignont and Johnson would earn those spots first just based on them having more experience than the others, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s someone else. Newcomer Crouch is especially intriguing, as he arrives on campus in a ready-made body.

But if it’s Ignont and Johnson, that would make the cumulative weight of the defensive front seven 1,891 pounds (1,889 if it’s Kirkland instead of Ignont). On that old 2009 list of the Top 20 defenses with their respective weights, Tennessee’s 2019 edition would be the second-heaviest, behind only Alabama.

Does the 2009 benchmark still apply in 2019?

Yes, things may have changed since 2009. Lines may have gotten even bigger. We’ll take a look at that starting next week.

But for now, just know two things: Bigger is better along the defensive front, and Tennessee’s defensive front is getting bigger.

You can’t really say that Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt lacks candor, although he’s not especially forthcoming, either. Mostly, the guy just seems like he’d rather be coaching football than talking to you, so while the media may be able to extract information from him under the glare of the lights at required media sessions, you’re otherwise left to read between the lines.

To the degree that he hasn’t expressly said so, it’s become readily apparent over the short time that Pruitt’s been on campus that one of his lead goals is increasing the size and strength of his roster. For example, we know that even though his running back stable currently consists of guys who are on the smaller/faster end of the continuum, he prefers bigger bodies at that position. When he goes shopping for running backs, he’s generally in the 200- to 230-pound aisle, and he stops and stares longingly at the window display of the sculpted 230-pounder. We know that because he’s said it. Not in that way, of course, because metaphors are for people with time for such nonsense. Pruitt just says he likes big backs and puts the whistle back between his lips.

It’s not too much of a stretch to conclude that his preference for heft applies to certain other positions as well and that he’s working toward that goal by not only remodeling the guys he has, but also by adding guys who already fit the blueprint or who can get there quickly.

We’ll be able to tell the degree to which he’s improving the size and strength of his roster by comparing the before and after pictures, but before we do that, I wanted to establish first, by something other than mere intuition, that size is in fact of great importance to some positions.

The 2011 edition of our annual magazine included an article on this very subject. Written by Bud Elliott, who is now SB Nation’s National Recruiting Analyst, the article not only proves that size matters along the defensive front seven but also explains why.

Here are the evergreen bits from that piece, scrubbed of references to a certain former coach of which you don’t care to be reminded. You’re welcome for that.

The following is from Volunteers Kickoff 2011, the 2011 edition of our annual preseason publication covering Tennessee Football.

Does size matter?

Below is a list of the top twenty defenses of 2009 and the respective cumulative weights of the teams’ defensive front sevens.

As you can see, 90% of the best 20 defenses of 2009 were 1,780 pounds or more in the front seven. More than half eclipsed the 1,800-pound mark. Is that a coincidence? Probably not. Yes, it may be possible to be both small and good, just as it may be possible to be both large and bad, but although size may be neither necessary nor sufficient, the figures above suggest that it is indeed a significant factor for success at the major college level.

Why does size matter?

So what is it about size that makes a difference? For one thing, bigger teams are able to better hold the point of attack and reduce guesswork. Another is that the teams with better defenses are typically stocked with more upperclassmen, which tend to be bigger because they’ve spent more time in the strength and conditioning program. That seems to be the case with a few of the teams on the list above, most notably Oklahoma State, which had ten senior starters on defense at one point in the 2009 season.

A big front seven also allows a team to better control gaps along the line. In particular, large defensive ends like those Saban used at LSU allow a defense to control the C gap (between the playside tackle and the tight end). Likewise, having a large outside linebacker with excellent instincts who can help control the C gap can allow a team to be more flexible with the defensive end. The central tenet here is that the player must hold his ground. A 240-pound defensive end or a 215-pound linebacker generally won’t be able to control the C gap in the SEC.

A smaller defensive line must rely more on speed and quickness, attempting to get around the blocker in front of him rather than stonewalling him, controlling him, and then shedding the block to make the tackle. Penetration certainly has its place in defensive football, but an entire defense should not be based on the concept. It leads to maddening inconsistency and players being out of position. For instance, if a defender attempts to go around a blocker to the left as opposed to taking him on and defeating him, the running back can simply go right, using the blocker to shield himself from the defender. This is where we get the term “overpursuit.”

Linebackers that are 215 pounds simply aren’t populating elite defenses. Those that are 220 pounds are also becoming increasingly rare as teams are able to find the size needed to stand up to blockers. They are fine as long as the team has monster defensive linemen capable of absorbing multiple blockers. But generally, a team of small LBs grouped with small defensive linemen, even if fast, is not a recipe for elite defensive football.

The consequences of being too small

A bigger front seven allows a team to be substantially better against the run than a smaller team. To compensate for that, a smaller defense must rely on numbers. They take seven and make it eight by bringing the safety closer to the line of scrimmage. That’s fine in theory, as the defense has an extra defender for which the offense cannot account. But the flip side of the strategy is that it leaves the defense vulnerable to the play-action pass. If a safety is focused on the run and very involved in run defense, he’s likely to be more aggressive in pursuing run plays—and falling for run fakes. And when the quarterback pulls the ball back on the run fake and hits the tight end streaking down the field in the area vacated by the safety, the plan doesn’t look so great.

The overuse of safeties in the run game also presents the problem of predictable coverages. If a safety lines up close to the line of scrimmage, an offensive coordinator can be confident he is not going to see cover two or cover four. Offenses are just too good in this day and age to be telegraphing coverages.

Size increases defensive flexibility

Instead of doing any of that, what . . . big defenses do is simply defend the run game using a large and talented front seven. Yes, the safeties are still involved, but not to the extent they are in very small defenses. This allows the safeties to play pass first and run second, a major advantage for the defensive back.

One might worry that this approach would leave the defense devoid of speed and vulnerable to the outside run. But from the list above, that doesn’t appear to be the case. The best twenty defenses aren’t necessarily the fastest in the country, but they are probably the strongest, and that strength produces gap integrity. And with that gap integrity comes the ability to keep leverage on the ball. Put simply, a big defense refuses to be run on between the tackles and forces the opposition to bounce the play to the outside. You’d think that with a bigger and presumably slower player the big defense would find trouble here, but that just isn’t the case.  Why? Because the running back is forced to go laterally for a long distance as the defense is not allowing him to cut the ball up the field, which buys the defense time to read and adjust to the play.

What about passing downs? These bigger defenses have a variety of responses to passing downs, but the most common theme here is that they force long down and distance through excellent run defense on first and second down. Better to defend with decent pass rushers against 3^rd and 7 than with great pass rushers against 3^rd and 4.

Conclusion

That article went on to look at the weight of Tennessee’s defensive front seven heading in to the 2011 season and found that it was trending in the right direction yet still had a distance to travel. The group weighed in at 1808 pounds — about middle-of-the-pack on the above list — and the team finished seventh in the SEC and 27th in the nation in total defense, giving up 340.5 yards per game and 5.43 yards per play.

So, yes, having a big and strong defensive front is important to a team’s success. As Bud points out, it’s neither necessary nor sufficient, but there is little doubt that it helps.

We added a few new things to our annual Gameday on Rocky Top magazine this year, which, by the way, is now safely in the hands of the printer as of Tuesday. We’ll have the pre-order information available for you next week sometime.

Anyway, one of the new things we added this time around is an analysis of the various schedules of the SEC teams. We only set aside one page for that, so it’s limited to which teams have (1) the toughest and weakest overall schedules, (2) the toughest and weakest cross-divisional schedules, (3) the toughest and weakest non-conference schedules, and (4) the toughest three-game stretch. The executive summary is this: South Carolina has the toughest non-conference and toughest overall schedules, Florida and Auburn tie for toughest cross-divisional schedules, and Texas A&M has the toughest three-game stretch, thanks in part to consecutive road games against Georgia and LSU to close out a long season. That page of the magazine includes tables ranking each team in each category with explanations, so if you want to see where Tennessee ranks, well, watch your newsstands. 🙂

The double-bye schedule

But while I was putting all of that together, several other interesting things didn’t make the cut for a single page. For instance, the schedules are different this year in that every team has two bye weeks instead of one. (Florida actually has three because they kick the party off on August 24, a week earlier than almost everyone else, with a special game against Miami.) Part of this is a function of a periodic calendar quirk that provides more Saturdays during the season, but there is also discussion of planning for it to happen every year in part because it would allow teams more flexibility to reschedule games impacted by inclement weather.

Regardless of whether the double-bye schedule becomes permanent, it’s happening this fall, and one side effect is the variance it introduces into the difficulty of teams’ respective schedules.

All of this is, of course, based on an assumption rooted in intuition that a bye week is worth something to the team that has it. There’s not a lot of data on this, but in 2016, Football Study Hall looked at 2015 data and concluded that a bye week “might have been worth a couple of points . . . .” So, take it for what it’s worth, but the data seems to support the intuition that a bye week is probably worth at least a little something.

The potential impact on Tennessee

What does that mean for Tennessee this year? First, on the positive side of the ledger, the Vols’ bye weeks this year come before the Georgia and Missouri games. Georgia also has a bye prior to the Tennessee-Georgia game, so that’s a wash. But while Tennessee has an extra week to prepare for Missouri, the Tigers will be coming off of consecutive games against Georgia and Florida, and that, my fellow Vols fans, could matter.

On the other hand, a vengeful-minded Kentucky team has a bye week before it plays Tennessee, while the Vols will be coming into that game at the tail end of this stretch of games: Georgia, Mississippi State, at Alabama, South Carolina, never-to-be-taken-lightly UAB, and at Kentucky. That’s a lot of games in a row for a 12-game schedule that includes two byes for everybody. That could matter as well.

It’s stuff like this that leads to perceived inconsistencies between power rankings and projections despite the fact that those are two different exercises done for two different purposes. I said in a couple of different places in the magazine that Tennessee could be worse than Missouri and beat them and better than Kentucky and lose to them. At this point, that’s actually what I’m thinking will happen.

How might the doubling of the byes impact Tennessee’s SEC schedule this year?

As already mentioned, Georgia has a bye before playing Tennessee, but so do the Vols. Consider that a wash. Kentucky has one as well, while the Vols are dealing with UAB at the end of a tough stretch. But in addition to those two, there is another: Mississippi State also has the prior week off while the Vols are dealing with Georgia, and they’ll be the second fresh opponent in two weeks for the Vols.

The byes also provide Tennessee some advantages, though. South Carolina hosts Florida the week before coming to Knoxville (and is at Georgia the week before that). Missouri is in basically the same position in that it hosts Florida the week before playing Tennessee in Knoxville and also travels to Georgia the week before that.

So, it could be worse. As a matter of fact, it is worse for Georgia. Byes for Tennessee and Florida prior to playing Georgia are negated by byes at the same time for the Bulldogs, but three additional dangerous teams also rest up right before entering the ring with the Bulldogs: Missouri, South Carolina, and Auburn all have an extra week to prepare for Georgia, while Georgia is having to contend with Florida, Tennessee, and Missouri, respectively, in the weeks prior to those games.

The bottom line of all of this is that we should all probably expect some quirkiness this fall with seemingly better teams sometimes losing to seemingly inferior teams at a more favorable point in their schedule. And with the double byes this fall, there are twice as many opportunities for such chaos-creating quirks.