Tennessee opened as a 14.5-point underdog to Georgia this week, and the line is currently at 12.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think Georgia beats the Vols Saturday? Here’s what the stupid numbers say and why my gut is shaking its head.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Both Tennessee and Georgia have played two games this year, so the SPM will only be using 2020 data.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 33
Georgia’s Scoring Offense this year: 32

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 19.5
Georgia’s Scoring Defense this year: 8

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• South Carolina 34.5
• Missouri 36.5

Tennessee scored 35 points against Missouri and 31 points against South Carolina. That’s 93% of what those teams average giving up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia: 7.4

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• South Carolina 25.5
• Missouri 15.5

Tennessee allowed 12 points against Missouri and 27 points against South Carolina, 95% of what those teams are averaging.

Estimated points for Georgia against Tennessee: 30.4

Estimated score: Tennessee 7.4, Georgia 30.4

From the perspective of Georgia

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• Auburn 20
• Arkansas 25.5

Georgia scored 37 points against Arkansas and 27 points against Auburn. That’s 141% of what those teams average giving up.

Estimated points for Georgia against Tennessee: 27.5

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2020 data:

• Auburn 17.5
• Arkansas 15.5

Georgia allowed 10 points to Arkansas and 6 points to Auburn, 48% of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia: 15.8

Estimated score: Georgia 27.5, Tennessee 15.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw all that in the pot, turn up the heat, and here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 11.6, Georgia 29

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -17.4

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 2.9

That makes this a Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion that Georgia will cover because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

I don’t find anything wrong with the numbers on this one, but for some reason, I just think the spread is too high. The SPM is basically showing that both defenses are going to be a drag on the respective offenses, but that Georgia’s defense is going to have more of an impact on Tennessee’s offense than the Vols’ defense is going to have on the Bulldogs’ offense. That makes sense, and it may be the case, because Georgia’s offense is national-championship-caliber elite. The thing my gut is yelling at the numbers, though, is that Tennessee’s offense is currently better-equipped to handle a frustrating defense than is Georgia’s. I don’t think either team is scoring 30 points in this game. More like 20-24, and I think either or both could do it.

So, my eyeball-adjustments this week are more like gut-adjustments, and I’m predicting a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. The Statsy Preview Machine likes the Bulldogs to cover, but I don’t.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas: As I said before, the Bulldogs opened as 14.5-point favorites and are currently 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 44.5, that translates to something like Georgia 29, Tennessee 15.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 28-15 (Bulldogs -13), and gives the Vols a 23% chance of winning. He’s using a 12-point spread, and he likes Georgia to cover that.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine thinks Georgia is going to cover, regardless of whether you use a 14.5-point or 12-point spread. My gut says no either way. Nobody’s feeling especially confident about any of it.

• Vegas: Georgia, -14.5 (~Georgia 29, Tennessee 15)
• SP+: Georgia 28, Tennessee 15 (doesn’t cover the opening spread)
• GRT’s SPM: Georgia 29, Tennessee 12 (covers)
• Me: Georgia 24, Tennessee 20 (doesn’t cover)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
• Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.

What do y’all think?

A huge opportunity awaits the Vols this week when they travel to Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the Best-Game-From-The-Best-Conference time slot at 3:30 on CBS. Nothing matters more, although there are a handful of other games of some interest to Tennessee fans as well.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Thursday, October 8, 2020

Tulane and Houston may not get your motor running, but this is a big week for Vols fans, so let’s go ahead and prime the pump early.

Friday, October 9, 2020

This could be a fun one. Louisville is only a 6.5-point favorite over the maybe-still-retooling Yellow Jackets.

Gameday, October 10, 2020

Gameday kicks off with two future Vols opponents matching up against each other when No. 4 Florida takes on No. 21 Texas A&M. There’s also a Top 25 matchup in the ACC, but in a year where pretty much everybody is just playing within their own conference, it doesn’t matter nearly as much as what our conference foes are doing. Same goes for the Red River Rivalry, which would usually merit at least a check-in every once in a while. But in 2020, we’re focused on the Gators and the Aggies in this time slot. Gig ‘Em.

And then it’s the main attraction for the day when No. 14 Tennessee takes on No. 3 Georgia on CBS at 3:30. The Bulldogs are two-touchdown favorites, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes them by 17, but my gut isn’t buying it just yet. Also, don’t forget to set your DVR for the Arkansas-Auburn game on at the same time so you can watch that one later.

In the evening slot, we’ll get a look at two future Vols opponents as Nick Saban and Alabama take on Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin at the odd kickoff time of 6:00 on ESPN and Mississippi State takes on Kentucky at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

UPDATE: 10.9.20, 5:29 p.m. Coding error was pulling 2019 comps on some games when it should have been pulling 2020 comps, so I’ve re-run the numbers. What’s in the table below now is correct.

First of all, apologies for the sudden silence from me. A family emergency pressed pause on my world for five days. We are out of the woods now, so I’m spending much of the day jumping back on the moving train and filling in as many gaps as I’m able, starting with the TV schedule and the standings in the weekend games.

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 15-12 (55.56%) overall against the opening lines last week. It went 4-5 (44.44%) in Category 2 and 2-2 (50%) in Category 3. For the season, it is now 46-42 (52.27%) in Category 1, 22-17 (56.41%) in Category 2, and 10-8 (55.56%) in Category 3.

Using the same spreads as SP+, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall last week while SP+ went 17-10 (62.96%). SP+’s official results for the week: 17-11 (61%).

Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 6 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 6 Picks

We are beginning to settle in as most teams now have at least two games on their resumes. That will change, of course, when the Big 10 and Pac-12 start playing, but for now, we’re beginning to get our legs. Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:

There are five six Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Let’s see if it can get its groove back on those.

What are you favorite games this week?

Tennessee opened as an 11-point favorite over Missouri this week, and depending on the source, the line is currently between 12.5 and 13. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against the Tigers Saturday? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Both Tennessee and Missouri have played one game this year, so the SPM will be combining data from this year and last both for (1) scoring offense and defense (with an adjustment for returning production), and (2) comps.

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 31
Tennessee scoring offense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 27.6
Missouri’s Scoring Offense last year: 25.3
Missouri’s Scoring Offense this year: 19
Missouri scoring offense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 22.2

Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 27
Tennessee scoring defense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 24.3
Missouri’s Scoring Defense last year: 19.4
Missouri’s Scoring Defense this year: 38
Missouri scoring defense to be used (combination of this season and last season): 28.7

Tennessee’s offense

The Missouri scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:

• Mississippi State 28.8
• South Carolina 26.1

Tennessee scored 20 points against Mississippi State and 41 points against South Carolina last year. Combined, that’s 111% of what those teams usually give up. So that makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri 31.9.

Tennessee having only played South Carolina so far in 2020, the Vols have obviously scored 100% of what their opponents gave up. That makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri 28.7.

Combining both 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri is 30.3.

Tennessee’s defense

The Missouri scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:

• South Carolina 22.4
• UAB 23.1

Tennessee gave up 7 points to UAB and 21 points to South Carolina last year.
So, against the best comps, Tennessee allowed 61% of what those teams usually score, making the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee 13.5.

For 2020, the Vols have allowed 100% of what its opponent have given up, making the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee 22.2.

Combining both 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee is 17.9.

Therefore, the estimated score from Tennessee’s perspective is Tennessee 30.3, Missouri 17.9.

From the perspective of Missouri

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:

• South Carolina 26.1
• Mississippi 26.5

Missouri scored 38 points against Ole Miss and 34 points against South Carolina. That’s 137% of what those teams usually give up, which puts the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee at 33.3.

As it does from Tennessee’s perspective, the SPM for 2020 defaults to its opponent’s scoring defense because there is only one comp to look at, so the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee for 2020 is 24.3.

Combining both the 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Missouri against Tennessee is 28.8.

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Missouri opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:

• Kentucky 27.2
• Mississippi 26.6

Missouri allowed 29 points to Kentucky and 27 points to Mississippi last year. That’s 104% of what those teams usually score, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri 28.7.

For 2020, the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri is 27.6.

Combining both the 2019 and 2020 comps, the estimated points for Tennessee against Missouri from Missouri’s perspective is 28.2.

Therefore, the estimated score from Missouri’s perspective is Missouri 28.8, Tennessee 28.2.

SPM Final Estimates

Throw all that in the pot, turn up the heat, and here’s what’s for dinner:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Missouri 23.3

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -5.9

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 5.1

That makes this a Category 1 game for the Statsy Preview Machine, meaning it’s not overly confident about its conclusion because it is not far off from the Vegas spread.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m feeling pretty good about the results from Tennessee’s perspective, as my current belief is that Tennessee and South Carolina are fairly evenly matched. The 41 points that the Vols scored against the Gamecocks last year is probably inflated, but that inflation is mostly accounted for by combining with another comp of the same year and then combining that result with this year’s results.

I am suspicious, however, of the results from Missouri’s perspective, as playing Alabama in the first game of the 2020 season is almost certainly not an even matchup, meaning the 2020 comps are probably lower than they should be. Removing the 2020 comps from Missouri’s perspective gives more points to Missouri than it does to Tennessee. (It would be Tigers 33.3, Vols 28.7.) Remember, the Vols may have dominated Missouri on the field last year, but they did not dominate them on the scoreboard, winning only 24-20. However, one would think that this year’s Missouri team is not yet up to speed with a new coaching staff and system and plenty of new players. All of that leads me to the conclusion that although I am suspicious of the 2020 comps from Missouri’s perspective, I’m leaning toward believing the results.

So this week, I am making no eyeball-adjustments and sticking with the SPM to predict a score of Tennessee 29, Missouri 23. Neither I nor the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one. I’m bracing for a somewhat disappointingly- close contest, but also hoping I am wrong.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas: As I said before, the Vols opened as 11-point favorites and are currently 12.5- to 13-point favorites. With an over/under of 48.5-49.5, that translates to something like Tennessee 30, Missouri 19.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee better at 27-17 (Vols -10), and gives the Vols a 71% chance of winning, but like us, still does not like the Vols to cover.

Bottom line

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine and my own eyeballs like the Vols to win but not cover this week, although neither of us is beating our chest about it.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -11 (~Tennessee 30, Missouri 19)
• SP+: Tennessee 27, Missouri 17 (doesn’t cover)
• SPM: Tennessee 29, Missouri 23 (doesn’t cover)
• Me: Tennessee 29, Missouri 23 (doesn’t cover)

Season results on Tennessee games

• Week 1: The SPM was right (albeit overconfident) against South Carolina.

What do y’all think?

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine inched out of the garage after a service call last week and basically just took a cruise around the block getting a feel for its new wheels. It went 14-13 (51.85%) overall last week, and hit only .500 in both Category 2 (7-7) and Category 3 (3-3). For the season, it is now 31-30 (50.82%) in Category 1, 18-12 (60%) in Category 2, and 8-6 (57.14%) in Category 3. Incidentally, if you compare its projections to the same spreads that SP+ uses, it went 17-10 (62.96%) overall last week, about the same as SP+ itself. I trust Bill on the spreads he’s using; I just don’t know the source. I use Oddsshark’s “Opening” spreads. Whether that’s a casino, sportsbook, Oddsshark itself, or just whoever is first, I don’t know. If anyone can enlighten, I’d love to hear it.

But for now, here are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 5 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 5 Picks

The Unknowable is losing a bit of chaotic power but is still a threat to rear its head and wreak havoc. With that caveat, here’s what we have for this week:

There are only four Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off Gameday this week at noon on the SEC Network, and there are six (six!) games involving eight (eight!) future opponents (plus one former opponent) that will probably impact the Vols’ 2020 season.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Friday, October 2, 2020

If you owe your family or someone else some time, you’re good both Thursday night (no games) and Friday night. If you’re looking to kill some time with football, though, this one will do the job.

Gameday, October 3, 2020

The Vols kick the day off in the noon slot on the SEC Network when they host the Missouri Tigers. But set your DVRs for the South Carolina-Florida game, too, as we’ll get some more information about how frightened we should be of the Gators.

In the afternoon slot, we get looks at three future Vols’ opponents. Alabama and Texas A&M square off on CBS. Assuming the Vols beat Missouri at noon, root for the Tide here, as it increases the chances that the Tennessee-Georgia game the following week gets the prime CBS 3:30 slot. Kentucky also plays in the afternoon slot, so keep your eye on both games.

The feature game in the evening slot is Georgia-Auburn on ESPN at 7:30. Root for Georgia here, as the Bulldogs also need to win for the Vols to be playing at 3:30 on CBS instead of noon next Saturday. Future Vols opponents Arkansas and Vanderbilt are also in action, so watch live what’s most interesting and DVR the rest unless you’d prefer to just channel hop among all three all night long.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week: