Injuries are a touchy subject around these parts. Nobody ever wants to use them as an excuse, and yet when the front falls off, you can’t really have an honest conversation without acknowledging them.

Nobody ever wants to see a guy get injured and have to miss time during the season. No player is expendable. And yet it’s a fact of life in football. Guys go down. Teammates step up. Guys rehab and return.

And stuff happens in the interim.

After last season, Vols fans know better than most the dramatic impact players missing time can have on a team’s ability to play well. Just how dramatic that impact is generally depends on how many guys get hurt, which guys get hurt, and how long it takes them to get back onto the field and into playing shape.

It’s doubtful that the Vols will have as many players injured this fall as they did last year. We’re all crossing our fingers that 2016 was an outlier, and to the extent that it wasn’t, we’re hoping that the lessons learned from last season and new strength and conditioning coach Rock Gullickson make a big difference.

But it’s still football, and injuries are still going to happen. And while you never want to see any player get hurt, the team is more vulnerable at certain positions than others.

So, with apologies to the superstitious, we’ve ranked the projected offensive starters in order of which ones the team can least afford to lose. Call it the Injury Uh-Oh Index. If you must find a piece of wood to knock on you’re reading, we’ll totally understand.

7. Brett Kendrick, Drew Richmond, Trey Smith, or Coleman Thomas

The offensive line is the deepest unit on the team, offense or defense, even considering that it requires the most bodies. Coleman Thomas may not even start, and behind Kendrick, Richmond, and Smith there are a ton of strong, versatile, talented, and experienced players like junior Jack Jones, sophomores Venzell Boulware and Marcus Tatum, and a handful of freshmen the team hopes they won’t need. The status of junior Chance Hall is a bit up in the air, as he was expected to be sidelined for some time but is reportedly back on campus after getting a second opinion about his knee. If he’s available, this unit is indeed in great shape and should be strong enough to withstand some normal injury attrition.

6. Josh Smith/Tyler Byrd

We have Smith and Byrd penciled in as starters in the receiving corps along with Jajuan Jennings. The unit does have some options behind these two in senior Jeff George, sophomores Marquez Callaway and Brandon Johnson, and five or six freshmen, so if one of Smith or Byrd is injured, the team has options. Those guys are largely unproven, mind you, but they are at least options.

5. Jashon Robertson

Although the offensive line is deep, they likely depend on senior leader Jashon Robertson. He’s started 35 games in three years, all 13 as a freshman, 10 of 10 as a sophomore, and 12 of 13 last year as a junior. If he misses any time, the team has bodies to plug in to his spot, but his leadership will be difficult to replace. With a new quarterback and mostly-new running backs and receivers, the entire offense would be scrambling for leaders if Robertson were to go down.

4. Quinten Dormady/Jarrett Guarantano

The Tennessee coaches have been saying all offseason that it’s nice to have two qualified guys pushing each other to replace Josh Dobbs at the quarterback position. They’re probably also thinking but not saying that it’s nice to have two just in case one of them gets injured. But while it’s somewhat comforting to know that there’s a qualified guy ready to go if the other guy gets hurt, it would also mean that there is no additional room for error. Behind Dormady and Guaranto is Will McBride and the mysterious Seth Washington, but let’s face it, if both Dormady and Guarantano are unavailable, there are going to be a lot of mopey folks on Rocky Top.

3. Jajuan Jennings

As I said earlier, there are a lot of bodies in the wide receiving corps, and Smith and Byrd are going to be fine complements to Jennings. But just as the offensive line looks to Robertson for leadership, there is little doubt that the entire receiving corps feeds off of Jennings. He’s not just a great receiver, he’s fearless and always primed for battle. Toughness like that is contagious, and the team will miss it if it’s not on the field with them.

2. Ethan Wolf

Wolf has been a fixture at the tight end position for three seasons at Tennessee, having started 35 games in his three years on campus. His primary contributions are probably under the radar in the blocking game, but he has also figured prominently into the passing game at several key moments in his career. The problem here is that the position isn’t especially deep. Senior Jakob Johnson could sub in for Wolf if needed, as could Ethan’s brother Eli, who is a sophomore. There are also four freshmen on the roster who could play in a pinch, but any way you look at it, losing Wolf to injury would likely mean a fairly significant drop off at the tight end position. And because we generally only notice tight ends when they’re catching passes and not when they’re blocking, we may not even realize what’s happening.

1. John Kelly

There are zero senior running backs on the roster this season. The team is in good hands with junior Kelly, though, who proved his mettle last season by outrushing all other running backs with 630 yards despite being third on the depth chart. But behind him, there’s nothing but question marks. Although there are two 4-star talents behind him in sophomore Carlin Fils-aime and freshman Ty Chandler, neither one of them is proven. The same can be said about sophomore Taeler Dowdy and freshmen Trey Coleman, Tim Jordan, and Chip Omer. Basically, the running back stable is John Kelly and then a bunch of young and inexperienced guys we know almost nothing about. Team 121 is going to lean heavily on John Kelly this fall. What they’re going to need the most from him is to stay healthy.

This is a work in progress, but I wanted to go ahead and share even at this stage to provide a look at Tennessee’s roster by depth and class. I’ve included star ratings and 247Sports Composite numbers as well.

As you can see, there is a lot of raw talent in the middle of the class, especially along the defensive line. Also plenty of talent at linebacker and in the secondary. Talent along the offensive line is a bit more diverse, but what some of them lack in stars, they make up for in experience.

Link to full size.

Yesterday, I pushed back against the SEC Media Days talking point that the Vols losing “all of that talent” to the NFL meant that they had missed their opportunity. My counterargument was that much of the talent that the Vols lost to the NFL was already gone in 2016 due to injury. Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Cam Sutton, and Alvin Kamara were all missing for key games last season.

It is true, though, that some NFL talent that was available the entire season last year won’t be there this fall. Derek Barnett, Josh Malone, and Josh Dobbs all played every game last year. They weren’t missing in action. They need to be replaced.

But that brings us to another problem with blindly buying into the idea that Tennessee has missed its opportunity because of the talent has departed: It relies on a questionable assumption, namely that the Vols won’t be able to replace the departing players with guys of equal caliber.

This assumption is an easy one to accept. If we haven’t seen six guys go in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft in 15 years, then it makes sense to believe that it will be a long time before we see it again. It just feels wrong to believe that the guys who will take up the reigns for Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs could be as good as they were.

But here’s the thing: It’s could be true.

Derek Barnett and defensive end

Of course, we can’t know for sure at this point, but we can analyze it a bit more to see if the assumptions we are making are reasonable.

Derek Barnett was the 10th-best player in the Vols’ 2014 class, according to the 247Sports Composite. His rating was .9164. A 4-star recruit, he was the 5th-best player in Tennessee, the 13th-best strongside defensive end nationally, and the 208th-best player overall nationally. He over-performed that ranking, setting a new Tennessee record for career sacks.

But Barnett is likely to be replaced by Jonathan Kongbo, who holds a great deal of promise. Kongbo was the third-best guy in the Vols’ class of 2016 with a rating of .9584. He was also a 4-star recruit, but on top of that, he was ranked as the nation’s No. 1 JUCO player in his class. He doesn’t have Barnett’s on-the-field resume, but he hasn’t had much opportunity, either. All Kongbo proved last year was that he was not a defensive tackle. What he does have, though, is a recruiting profile that is even better than Barnett’s. It’s a fact.

Even if Konbgo doesn’t live up to expectations, there’s always Kyle Phillips, another guy with a strong recruiting profile. Phillips was the second-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 with a rating of .9832. Yet another 4-star guy, Phillips was the best player in his class in the state of Tennessee, the fourth-best strongside defensive end, and the 37th-best player nationally.

Josh Malone and wide receiver

Malone was the highest-rated guy in the Vols’ 2014 class with a rating of .9818. Still only a 4-star recruit, Malone was the best player overall in Tennessee in 2014, the fifth-best wide receiver nationally, and the 36th-best player overall nationally. He took a while to get going, but he had a stellar season last year and was drafted by the Bengals in the fourth round.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Jajuan Jennings will take over as the feature receiver this fall. You’ll recall that Jennings was recruited as a quarterback and only moved to receiver after he arrived on campus. Still, his recruiting profile sheds some light on his talent. Jennings was the ninth-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 and had a rating of .9257. He was the seventh-best player in Tennessee, the sixth-best dual-threat quarterback nationally, and the 167th-best player in the nation.

The thing is, with Jennings, his recruiting profile is practically already irrelevant. He’s playing a different position, and all he’s done at Tennessee so far is this:

and this:

And more. If you don’t believe that Jajuan Jennings is every bit as good as NFL Draft Pick Josh Malone, I don’t know what to tell you.

Josh Dobbs and quarterback

Looking back at Dobbs’ recruiting profile, he was much higher-rated than I remember. He was the second-best player in the Vols’ class in 2013 and had a rating of .9276. Also a 4-star, Dobbs was the 14th-best player in the state of Georgia, the 10th-best pro-style QB (heh) nationally, and the 164th-best player nationally. The guy is a record-setting quarterback despite playing through a very difficult period in the school’s history.

How much should we expect of his replacements? Quinten Dormady was the 14th-best player in the Vols’ 2015 class with a rating of .9029. Guarantano was the second-best guy in the Vols’ 2016 class with a rating of .9612. Both are 4-star quarterbacks. Dormady was also the 38th-best player in the talent-rich state of Texas, the 11th-best pro-style quarterback in the class, and the 262nd-best player nationally, while Guarantano was the second-best player in the state of New Jersey, the nation’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback, and the 81st-best player in the class nationally.

Dormady, who is probably the favorite to start this fall, seems to be outperforming his ranking, and Guarantano hasn’t had much of a chance to prove anything yet, but both are talented. Just going on recruiting profiles, Guarantano’s is better than Dobbs’.

Here’s all of that data in table form:

We can’t know, but there’s reason to believe we won’t miss the NFL guys as much as we fear

Hear me loud and clear: I am not saying we are not going to miss Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs, and I’m not saying that Kongbo, Jennings, Dormady, and Guarantano are going to be every bit as good.

I’m just saying that if we are going to guess, we should guess based on actual information, and I am not convinced that the window of opportunity has closed to the Vols because they lost key players to the NFL. Those guys are not going to be replaced by something resembling a 2008-2012 roster; they’re freeing up opportunities for some really promising and talented guys on the 2017 roster.

The guys who are gone to the NFL were great talents for the Vols, but don’t overlook the potential of the guys likely to replace them.

I was watching the Tennessee Takeover replay of the 2016 Tennessee-Georgia game last night when my middle daughter came downstairs to put her cello away and asked me why I was watching a game I’d already seen. I was especially tired and so I just smiled and said, “We tend to forget stuff.”

As time goes by, we consolidate our memories into efficient shortcuts that are easier to remember, and as a result, the memory of the actual particulars fades. The abbreviated version of the 2016 Vols-Bulldogs game is that the Vols won that game on a miraculous Hail Mary when Josh Dobbs flung the ball to the end zone with four seconds left and Jajuan Jennings leaped over everybody to go get the ball and the victory.

If we sit down and give it more time, we might reminisce about some other details, such as how Georgia had nearly won the game just before that with their own miracle. We might even remember the sack-fumble-touchdown just before that that gave the Vols the lead.

What I’d forgotten, though, until I watched it again last night, is that Tennessee would have had seven more points had Jalen Hurd not decided it would be cool to score a touchdown while walking across the goal line and that Tennessee played that entire game with backup linebackers against a hammer of an offense. I’d forgotten that at least two key guys didn’t even got on the field against Georgia due to injury.

“The window of opportunity has closed”

One of the main talking points at SEC Media Days last week by regional and national pundits was that the Vols had missed their opportunity, that if they couldn’t do it with “all of that talent” last year, there’s no way they can do it this year with “all of that talent” gone.

It’s an easy argument to make, and it’s just as easy to swallow. Tennessee had six players taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft this spring – defensive end Derek Barnett, running back Alvin Kamara, defensive back Cam Sutton, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, wide receiver Josh Malone, and quarterback Josh Dobbs. That’s the best draft class for the Vols in 15 years.

So, if X + those guys = “disappointment,” then X – those guys = “even more disappointment.” If the Vols couldn’t get it done with them, they surely can’t do it without them. Sounds reasonable.

But there are a couple of problems with that argument, one of them being that it assumes that X is constant when it is not, which is a topic for a later post. Another problem with it is that last year wasn’t always “X + those guys.” “Those guys” weren’t all available at all the right times last season.

Who’s gone now and who was already gone last year

Only half of the guys who were drafted this spring played the entire season. Derek Barnett, Josh Dobbs, and Josh Malone all survived the 2016 gauntlet injury-free. They were important to whatever degree of success you assign to the 2016 season, and they’ll no doubt be missed.

But the other three – Reeves-Maybin, Sutton, and Kamara – all missed significant time or key games. Maybin suffered his injury against Ohio in the third game of the season. He then tried to play against Florida but just wasn’t himself at all and then missed the rest of the season. He was effectively not a part of the wins against Florida and Georgia or the losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt.

Cam Sutton also suffered his injury against Ohio early in the season and missed almost all of the key games of the season. He was unavailable for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina. He did not return until the Kentucky game.

Even Alvin Kamara was absent due to injury for a couple of key games. He was injured against Alabama and then missed the South Carolina game (as well as the Tennessee Tech game) after that.

All of those NFL guys are gone, so it is true that they’ll be unavailable against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU this year. But Reeves-Maybin and Sutton – two of the three most important players on defense last season – were not available for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama last season, either. And Kamara was missing for Alabama and South Carolina, and it’s not much of a stretch to say that his absence (and Jalen Hurd’s reported refusal to enter the game) was the difference against the Gamecocks as it resulted in an unprepared backup running back causing a key fumble.

Yes, Barnett, Dobbs, and Malone leaving presents Tennessee with a challenge of replacing NFL-caliber talent. But it’s not telling the whole story to say simply that “all of that talent is gone now.” The rest of the story is that, at the times it mattered most, much of that talent was already gone last year.