Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Jones talks QB separation, freshmen running backs, Georgia Tech, and more

Butch Jones talked to reporters after practice last night and started with saying that the challenge right now is balancing practice and summer school. The message to his team was to make sure they are not just spending their time at practice, but investing it, and he said that having fall camp while summer school was going on was going to help develop mental toughness.

Jones also addressed several other issues:

  • He dodged a question about whether either Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano had separated themselves from the other in the ongoing quarterback battle saying instead that both are improving every day and gaining confidence.
  • When asked specifically about Dormady, Jones said he is consistent and getting more comfortable and vocal. He then said the same about Guarantano. Specifically, he’s watching several things, including their body language after a play to see whether it changes depending on how the play went.
  • Jones said that all three freshmen running backs are looking good and are going to play. They’re being taught the difference between being a rusher and being a running back, that they need to be able to run, take care of the football, pass protect, and carry through well on run fakes. He says they’ve handled it extremely well and that much of the reason for that is that John Kelly is doing a good job of mentoring them and helping them get ready. And don’t forget that Carlin Fils-aime is also still in the mix. So it looks like it’s not just Kelly and Fils-aime but that they’re getting the freshmen ready to contribute as well.
  • The team is starting to sprinkle Georgia Tech preparation into their practices. At this point, they are not especially concerned about who the Yellow Jackets quarterback is going to be. They’re more concerned just about their offense, which Jones characterized as a very, very explosive one that causes mismatches and match up problems. They are going to run their offense regardless of who’s manning the QB position. Jones hasn’t tabbed anyone in particular to be the scout team quarterback, saying the main challenge is being able to simulate the speed of the game with that type of offense.
  • After a brief hesitation, Jones acknowledged that the senior cornerbacks do have a leg up on the others just due to experience. He again mentioned how much he’s liking Justin Martin, that he’s growing up and maturing. Emmanuel Moseley getting cleared for all drill work is also a good thing. But the young guys are pushing the older guys.
  • When asked what they’re doing, if anything, about opposing teams kicking away from kick returner Evan Berry, Jones said simply that they need to be solid in their schemes and that the goal of the kick return unit is to get good starting field position for the offense. When teams “sky-kicked” against the Vols, their starting position was between the 34- and 37-yard lines, which they’ll gladly take.
  • At weakside linebacker, Quart’e Sapp is apparently still “very limited,” but Cortez McDowell has had a good camp. Jones likes that they have some versatility at the linebacker spot and specifically mentioned Elliott Berry and Dillon Bates. They’re happy to have Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Colton Jumper back, and they’re all being pushed by the young guys.

 

Phil Steele’s injury bounce-back data suggests Vols in good shape for 2017

A few days ago, Phil Steele posted a ranking of all 128 college football teams by how many starts they lost to injury last season. It will come as no surprise to Vols fans that Tennessee is near the top (or bottom, depending on how you look at it) of the list.

Because Steele’s list is sorted by the fewest starts lost to most, I have taken the liberty of re-ordering it by most to least. The entire re-sorted list can be found here. After re-sorting, here are the top 17:

2016 Starters Lost to Injury Total Starts Lost Starts Lost % Starts Lost Rank Poised to Improve Rank
Syracuse 50 18.90% 128 1
Tennessee 52 18.20% 127 2
SMU 42 15.90% 126 3
Oklahoma 44 15.40% 125 4
E Michigan 43 15.00% 124 5
Arizona 39 14.80% 123 6
New Mexico St 38 14.40% 122 7
BYU 41 14.30% 121 8
Utah 40 14.00% 120 9
Wisconsin 41 13.30% 119 10
Miami (Ohio) 38 13.30% 117 11
Florida 38 13.30% 117 12
Mississippi 35 13.30% 116 13
South Alabama 37 12.90% 115 14
Texas St 34 12.90% 112 15
Oregon 34 12.90% 112 16
Missouri 34 12.90% 112 17

So what?

The purpose of posting this isn’t to prove that the 2016 season was as bad as it seemed in terms of injuries, although it does do an especially nice job of that. No, the point is to figure out what all of it might mean for the upcoming season. There, Steele comes through again.

According to Steele, the most important conclusion he’s drawn from analyzing this data is this: Over the past decade, there have been 145 teams that both (1) lost 34 starts or more, and (2) had nine or fewer wins. Of those 145 teams, 69% of them did as well or better (measured by win/loss record) the following year, and 57.9% of them did better.

And now you know why I limited the above table to the Top 17. All of them meet the criteria this year that suggests they will do as well or better this fall.

What about NOT having injuries last year?

The other side of the continuum is also what you’d expect, according to Steele. Of 61 teams that lost only five or fewer starts the prior season, 77% had the same or worse record the following year, and 65.6% had worse records.

Not that it matters much to Vols fans, but the teams on the other end of the spectrum are Western Michigan, Louisiana Tech, and . . . Ohio State. The Buckeyes, much like Alabama, may have so much talent on their roster that they are essentially vaccinated against the peril of injuries, but we’ll see.

What does it mean for the Vols in 2017?

So, whether it’s luck or something else, teams that suffer a lot of injuries in one season generally do better the next year, and teams that don’t, generally do worse.

“Generally” is the key word here, of course. If the trend holds, five (31%) of the 17 teams in table up top will still have worse records this season than last, and the Vols could well be one of them.

Plus, college football is a game of relativity. Being who you are matters, but so does playing who you play. So where do the Vols’ 2017 opponents fall on this list heading into the season?

2016 Starters Lost to Injury Total Starts Lost Starts Lost % Starts Lost Rank Poised to Improve Rank
Florida 38 13.30% 117 12
Missouri 34 12.90% 112 17
LSU 32 12.10% 104 24
UMass 31 11.70% 101 26
Alabama 23 7.00% 60 69
South Carolina 16 5.60% 39 90
Georgia Tech 15 5.20% 33 93
Kentucky 12 4.20% 22 106
Vanderbilt 11 3.80% 19 109
Georgia 10 3.50% 10 117
Southern Miss 7 2.40% 5 123

Florida, Missouri, and LSU are positioned to bounce back from the injury bug, much the same as the Vols. Assuming we’re not fretting too much over UMass, everyone else seems somewhat vulnerable on this front, though.

Steele’s data seems to suggest that there’s something more to injuries than just sheer luck, which makes sense. Running full speed into adversity has a way of getting your attention and forcing you to address it, and this data is pretty good evidence that when you have a lot of injuries, you respond by emphasizing injury prevention the following season, and by doing so you improve the situation.

We’ll have to wait and see, of course, but if the 2017 Tennessee Volunteers follow the trend, they could be in for an exciting season.

Does having more time to prepare for Georgia Tech actually matter?

We’re now inside of a month until the Tennessee Volunteers open their 2017 season against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. According to Vegas, the Vols are a slight favorite in the game, but some are rightly concerned about having to play against Paul Johnson’s unusual offense. The conventional wisdom is that Johnson makes his living from beating teams that haven’t had time to prepare for something they don’t see every week, but that having more time to prepare for Georgia Tech matters.

Too many years of lawyering has made me generally skeptical of conventional wisdom, so I wanted to look at the data to see if it supports the theory. Good news, Vols fans: It does.

Season openers

I looked first at Georgia Tech’s season openers during Paul Johnson’s time there, which started in 2008. This actually wasn’t very helpful, as I quickly discovered that the Yellow Jackets generally open their season with a cupcake.

Since 2008, the only ranked team Georgia Tech has played in an opener is #16 Virginia Tech in 2012, a game that they lost. Apart from the Hokies, the only other Power 5 program they’ve opened against in the past nine years is a Boston College team that finished the season 7-6. They won that one.

The other season-opening opponents are what we’ll call non-probative: Jacksonville State (twice), South Carolina State, Western Carolina, Elon, Wofford, and Alcorn State. It should come as no surprise that GT won all of those games, and you really can’t draw any conclusions from it. The choice of opponent was the difference that mattered.

Bowl Games

Bowl games, though, were a different story. Apart from a 2015 season during which the Yellow Jackets went 3-9, they’ve made a bowl game every season since 2008, and they mostly played decent teams. Those opponents included #7 Mississippi State in 2014, #10 Iowa in 2009, LSU in 2008, USC in 2012, Ole Miss in 2013, Kentucky in 2016, and Air Force and Utah in 2010 and 2011.

The Yellow Jackets’ record in those games was 3-5. In addition, two of the wins came against middling 7-5 regular season teams (USC in 2012 and Kentucky last year), and their third win came during the Yellow Jackets excellent 11-3 season in 2014.

So, yeah. Georgia Tech’s bowl games serve as pretty good evidence that teams that have more time to prepare generally get better results against them.

Other Losses

What about Georgia Tech’s “other” losses, meaning the non-season openers and non-bowl games? Do they have anything to offer on the question? Here’s the data on those:

2008: The Yellow Jackets lost three “other” games: Virgnia Tech, Virginia, and #19 North Carolina. The Tar Heels had a bye week before the game.

2009: They lost to #20 Miami and Georgia, and Miami had 10 days to prepare.

2010: They lost six other games, three of which (NC State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia) were against opponents with more than a week to prepare.

2011: Of the four other games they lost, two of them (Virginia, Virginia Tech) came against teams with extra time to prepare. Y’all need to stop giving the Hokies extra time.

2012: They lost to three teams ranked in the Top 15, plus Miami and MTSU. MTSU had a bye before the game.

2013: Lost to #8 Clemson, #14 Miami, Georgia, and Virginia Tech. The Hokies actually beat Georgia Tech on a short turnaround (five days), and Clemson probably didn’t need it, but they had 12 days to prepare.

In their 11-3 season in 2014, they lost to #4 Florida State, North Carolina, and Duke. The Blue Devils had a bye week before the game.

2015: They couldn’t beat anybody anyway, but one of their nine losses came against a team that had 12 days to prepare.

And last season, the Yellow Jackets lost to # 5 Clemson, #14 Miami, #21 North Carolina, and Pitt. This should give you some anxiety that they are probably a pretty good team. But the Miami and North Carolina losses did come after bye weeks for the opposing teams.

So by my count, that’s a total of 13 of 40 losses that came against teams that had extra time to prepare for Paul Johnson’s unusual offense. If you exclude the 2015 season during which their opponents didn’t need extra time to beat them, that number is 12 of 31. Extra time to prepare may have mattered nearly 40% of the time.

A win for conventional wisdom

It’s probably important to note that ACC Coastal teams and Georgia play Georgia Tech every year and therefore have more regular familiarity with the Yellow Jackets than others, such as teams who only meet them in bowl games and other non-conference matchups. So, perhaps the bowl game data is a little more probative than the “other losses” data. But it’s just as important to note that what matters most is how good the teams actually are. The time-to-prepare factor seems to come into play only when the game is between somewhat evenly matched teams.

That’s good news for the Vols, who are likely viewed by most as the better team on paper. While there is some danger in having to prepare for an offense that is out of the ordinary, the data suggests that having extra time to prepare against the Yellow Jackets matters. And so if Tennessee must play Georgia Tech, playing them in a season-opener is a good time to do it. They still need to prove they are the better team, but at least they should be ready.

VFLs Justin Gatlin and Christian Coleman both beat Usain Bolt at the World Championships

If you’re a Vols fan and not yet a fan of Track and Field, you’d better get on the bandwagon pronto before the thing fills up. VFL Justin Gatlin just won the 100 meter in the IAAF World Track and Field Championships in London, and VFL Christian Coleman came in second.

They both beat Usain Bolt, who is widely known as “the fastest man alive,” and who hadn’t lost a race since 2013.

Tennessee Track and Field is rightfully proud, calling it the Tennessee Two Step:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Track/status/893936456149987329

 

VFL Christian Coleman just beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meter dash

Former Tennessee Volunteer track and field phenom Christian Coleman beat the fastest man alive in the semi-final of the World Championships this afternoon in London. The final is this afternoon at 4:45 Eastern on NBC.

Here’s the video:

What does Chance Hall’s injury mean for the Vols this fall?

After practice last night, Butch Jones confirmed earlier reports that Tennessee Vols offensive lineman Chance Hall is going to miss the 2017 season due to season-ending knee surgery. Hall started seven games and played in 10 as a true freshman in 2015 and started all six of the games he played last year, primarily at right tackle. He needed knee surgery this time last year and missed most of training camp and the first three games.

Here’s coach Jones on Hall’s injury:

First things first: Prayers and best wishes to Hall for a speedy and complete recovery. Getting this news just as the team is gearing up has to be incredibly disappointing for him. He does have a redshirt to burn, so at least he won’t be losing eligibility.

What does Hall’s unavailability mean for the Vols?

We know just how important an offensive line is to the success of a team. Having one that’s experienced, deep, and talented is one of the main reasons we are looking forward to this season. So, any assault to the offensive line is an assault to the team. Injuries are always bad news.

At the same time, one of the advantages of a strength is the insurance it provides against adversity. Just three days ago, we created a sort of Tennessee Vols Injury Uh-Oh index by ranking the offensive starters by how important their availability is to the team’s success this fall. Hall was actually not a projected starter, so he wasn’t necessarily a subject of that post, but he is widely viewed as maybe the first or second guy off the bench, so the unit is definitely worse off without him.

But, the penciled-in starters are still set, and the unit is still strong. The starters appear to be Brett Kendrick at right tackle, Trey Smith at right guard, Coleman Thomas (probably?) at center, Jashon Robertson at left guard, and Drew Richmond at left tackle.

And there are good guys behind them, even if Hall will be rehabbing instead of playing. There are still excellent backup options in 4-star Jack Jones and 3-stars Marcus Tatum and Venzell Boulware, and there are still a handful of freshmen on the bench just in case.

The team obviously doesn’t want to lose any more offensive linemen, but of all of the units on the team, it is actually the one best positioned to handle a gut punch at this point, so although they’ll definitely miss Hall, they’re still in good shape to compete.

Will Shelton on WNML’s Sports 180: Receivers inexperienced, but talented

On yesterday’s appearance on WNML’s Sports 180 with Josh & Will, @will-shelton weighed in on the most important unit for the Vols this season and whether Vols fans should be concerned about the lack of experience in the wide receivers unit. He also made his picks for the Vols’ breakout players of the year on offense and defense.

https://audioboom.com/posts/6174563-will-shelton-gameday-on-rocky-top-8-4-17

 

Ranking the Vols defensive players who HAVE to stay healthy

Yesterday, we ranked the offensive players by which of them was most important to keep healthy. Today, we’ll do the same for defensive players. As we said yesterday, our hope is that no one gets hurt. It’s football, though, and injuries are part of the game, and some position groups are more vulnerable to injuries than others. So while we hope no one misses time, here’s a list of the defensive guys the team will miss the most if they suffer an injury.

6. Shaq Wiggins/Emmanuel Moseley/Rashaan Gaulden/Nigel Warrior

It’s not that these guys aren’t important; they are. And it’s not that they didn’t struggle at times last season; with the exception of Shaq Wiggins (who wasn’t here last year), they did. The relative security we have in the secondary is found (1) in numbers and talent, and (2) in the fact that we believe that the problems last year were due to coaching, which has hopefully been fixed in the offseason.

There are plenty of bodies — in addition to the four guys listed above and Todd Kelly Jr. (discussed below), the unit includes 4-stars Justin Martin, Evan Berry, Micah Abernathy, Marquill Osborne, and Maleik Gray. There are also six other 3-star players in the unit. We’re crossing our fingers that the coaching change in the secondary is going to filter its way through the entire secondary and improve their deep ball coverage across the board. So this unit should not only be improved, they should have the bodies and the talent to withstand normal injury attrition.

5. Jonathan Kongbo/Darrell Taylor

There is a lot of attention on these guys because they’re replacing Derek Barnett and Corey Vereen, but as we’ve said before, the guys behind the guys who are gone are talented. The defensive end position, though, is still not quite deep enough to consider it invulnerable to injury. If either Kongbo or Taylor miss time, Kyle Phillips at least has the resume to presumably step in and contribute without too much drop off, but behind those three, the team would have to look to a group of 3-star freshmen.

4. Todd Kelly Jr.

As I said a minute ago, the secondary is loaded with talent, bodies, and new purpose. Even so, Kelly is the leader back there, and if he goes missing the unit will feel it. The blossoming promise of Nigel Warrior, especially, seems to be yoked to Kelly’s leadership. He needs to stay healthy to keep the unit functioning as one.

3. Kahlil McKenzie/Kendal Vickers

We all have recurring nightmares of life without defensive tackles after last season, but really, the line should be strong and deep enough to withstand usual injury attrition. Assuming Shy Tuttle makes it back to full strength by the beginning of the season, the tackle spots should have at least five bodies available in Vickers, McKenzie, Tuttle, Alexis Johnson, and Quay Picou. And then there’s that group of freshmen that the team can tap into if needed. That said, we witnessed the importance of having plenty of big healthy bodies in the middle last year, so seeing any d-tackle go down will likely trigger flashbacks.

2. Cortez McDowell; and

1. Darrin Kirkland Jr.

The Tennessee linebacking corps really struggled at times last year, although that could have been just what linebackers look like when they’re backing up a defensive line without defensive tackles. Regardless, Kirkland is the leader of the defense, and the team needs him both from a leadership/alignment standpoint as well as a talent standpoint. McDowell, too, is important as the likely second guy on the unit.

There are a lot of experienced and talented guys available, starting with senior Colton Jumper, who not only filled in when the starters were out last year, but played really well. Also available are 4-star sophomores Daniel Bituli and Quart’e Sapp, 3-star Elliott Berry, and 4-star Dillon Bates. Hybrid linebacker/defensive end Austin Smith is also available, and a promising freshmen class is led by 4-star Will Ignont.

Still, if the linebacking unit didn’t appear to do very well last season, it could be because the team played only three games with its preferred starting lineup at the position: Appalachian State (Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Kirkland), Virginia Tech (same), and Nebraska (Kirkland and McDowell). The remaining games featured the following combinations at ‘backer: JRM/Jumper (Ohio, Florida) (and JRM actually missed most of Florida), McDowell/Jumper (Georgia, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt), Berry/Jumper (Alabama), Kirkland/Jumper (South Carolina), and Kirkland/Berry (Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri).

So, the only time Kirkland and McDowell started together was the bowl game against Nebraska. The good news is that the other guys got a lot of experience and can rightly be referred to as returning starters. But it’s extremely important that Kirkland and McDowell remain healthy this fall.