Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Here’s our weekly update of the Vols’ statistical rankings, after the Florida game.

Offensive observations: The offensive line still seems to be doing a good job of protecting the quarterback. First down, third down, and scoring is . . . okay, but then go south in a hurry.

The most striking thing is that Red Zone Offense has gone from first three weeks ago to 100th this week.

Defensive observations: My mother always taught me that if you can’t say anything nice . . . you move on to special teams.

Special Teams observations: Need to tighten up that punt return and kick return defense, but other than that, high fives all around. And, of course, it’s only now that I realize that field goals isn’t on this list for some reason.

Turnovers and Penalties observations: Okay, decent. Could be better, but not terrible.

Player Rankings

“We all hurt. We’re angry. We’re pissed. All the above, but now it’s what you make of it. How do you become better because of this. Sometimes there are situations like this that you suffer the adversities of a long football season,  it can also galvanize you. It can bring you closer together as a football team. And again, we have to get back to work. UMass is not going to feel sorry for us. Nobody is going to feel sorry for us. So again, we have to get back and we have to go to work. That’s part of being a mature football team. It’s a long football season. Maybe people don’t want to hear it, but it is what it is. We have to get ready to play the next snap, the next play of the game, the next game. We  have to move forward. Again I’ll tell you, the details will not be ignored. I can promise you that.”

Butch Jones is scheduled to have his weekly press conference at noon. You can watch it here, and we’ll keep notes in the comment section as he goes.

Just when you’re reeling and out of air from the gut-punch of the Florida game, Mississippi State makes things interesting in the SEC East. Here’s our weekly update of expectations for the season based both on how the Vols did and how their past and future opponents did this weekend.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Florida

Here’s the thing: saying anything positive about Tennessee after a loss like the one they just suffered to Florida is perilous for your credibility and mental health. And yet, there is, in fact, some good to be said about the Vols after that game. What’s a guy to do?

There are a lot of negative things to say about various things and people after that game. Some of it is absolutely legitimate, most notably the head-scratching decision to use John Kelly to wear out the defense late in the game and then, just when it begins to really work and the game is on the line, decide not to use the advantage you just created.

Some of it, though, is nothing more than normally smart people blinded by rage falling prey to stupidity. For instance, no matter how many people say it and no matter the volume and confidence with which they say it, that last play was not a Hail Mary. It was not “just like Georgia last year,” but was actually a situation calling for the defense to defend not only against a game-winning touchdown but also against a play to set up a game-winning field goal. That particular outcome still should not have happened, obviously, but you’re just plain wrong if you really think the only possible play there is to put everybody in the end zone. That play was plenty terrible enough without spasming off a ledge.

The real shame of that ending (including the red zone play-calling and execution) is that it will completely overwhelm and obscure another truth, namely that Tennessee may actually be better off the rest of the way than we originally thought. Tennessee had 23 first downs to Florida’s 14. They outgained them 442-380. John Kelly had 141 rushing yards and another 96 receiving yards. The team should have won despite three interceptions and three missed field goals. None of that matters in a game they actually lost despite all of it, but it can be really good news for future games if the debilitating mistakes can be corrected.

Bottom line, do you think more or less of Tennessee after the Florida game? There are some weighty items on both sides of the scale, but to me, the negatives are more likely to be corrected than the positives are to disappear. So, on balance, I actually believe in the team a little more this week than I did last week. Not a lot more, but a little. But the team absolutely has to get stuff fixed.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Pitt
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (1-1, 1-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Terrible.

The Vols’ future opponents

In addition to the Vols doing some good things to offset the bad, there were some interesting developments among the Vols future opponents this weekend. Most notably, Mississippi State made LSU look more beatable and increased the odds that Georgia could get another SEC loss.

Here’s the rest of the Vols’ schedule and how those opponents fared this weekend.

9/23/17: UMass (0-4, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: These guys are not doing well. I had this game at 96% since the beginning of the season, but I’m bumping it up to 99% now.

9/30/17: Georgia (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #11)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: There’s not much to learn about the Bulldogs this week. I changed this game from 45% to 40% last week, and I’m going to keep it there. The interesting thing here is that Mississippi State just manhandled LSU, so while we’ve been thinking so far that Georgia’s schedule would be a breeze, there’s real hope that they lose an additional SEC game to Mississippi State, which would make things extremely interesting in the SEC East. Root hard for the Clangas this weekend.

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-1, 1-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: The Gamecocks not only lost to Kentucky this weekend, they also lost Deebo Samuel, probably for the remainder of the season. Prior to this weekend, they looked like they were poised to compete for the East, but without Samuel, they’re likely going to struggle. I moved this game from 69% to 60% last week, but this week I’m moving it to 75%.

10/21/17: Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No new information here. Keeping them at 10%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Okay, so Kentucky looked good against South Carolina. You definitely don’t want to overlook them, but I’m not sure we should overreact to one game in which the opponent lost its primary playmaker, either. I moved this game from 65% to 70% last week, and I’m going to move it back to 65% this week.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (2-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Ito Smith ran for 219 yards, and Kwadra Griggs threw for three touchdowns for Southern Miss this week. They might be good, but it’s going to be hard to know for sure with that schedule. The seven-point loss to Kentucky is going to look better if Kentucky continues to look good. I moved this game from 85% to 80% last week, and I’m going to keep it there this week.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-2, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri’s offense scored 72 points in the first game and 16 points in the next two. At the rate of the last two games, the Tigers will score as many points in the remaining games of the season as they did in that first game. I moved this game back to 70% last week and am tempted to move it even further to 75%, but I am going to keep it here and keep a wary eye on these guys.

11/18/17: LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC, #25)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Mississippi State made LSU look bad. I’ve had this game at 25% since the beginning of the season, but I’m making a major move with it this week to 45%. I still think they’re talented and deep and probably have a slight advantage late in a season.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I don’t really know what to think about Kansas State, so I don’t really know what to think about Vanderbilt beating them. We’ll have much more data on the Dores after their Alabama-Florida-Georgia run, but for now, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. I’m moving this game from 65% to 55%.

All of that puts me at 7.39 wins, but with 8 if the coin comes up the right way every time.

I’m going to post the community expectations later today or tomorrow. If you haven’t submitted your own information yet, you can do that here.

I’ll still be posting the recap of what happened with Tennessee and its past and future opponents tomorrow as usual along with my own updated win probabilities, but I wanted to provide y’all an early opportunity to use the Vols Win Probability Calculator to see where you’re at after this weekend’s games so that I could include them in tomorrow’s post.

So, here’s the form. Go ahead and post your result in the comments section as well for discussion purposes.

Two years ago, I was in my basement watching the Vols take on the Gators in The Swamp. They were ahead by 13 late in the fourth quarter, and I turned to my wife and kids and explained to them that it would take an extraordinary lapse of unimaginable proportions for Tennessee to lose the game. Hey, I was excited, because I’d been waiting for that moment from the time my oldest daughter was nine to the time she was 19.

You know how that ended. Multiple fourth down conversions and an extraordinary lapse of unimaginable proportions in the form of a miraculous (for Florida) touchdown on fourth-and-14 to give the Gators a one point lead and the win. It was crushing.

This evening, as I was watching the team finally wear out the Gators with John Kelly in the fourth quarter, I turned to my middle daughter and explained to her that all we had to do was run Kelly until he was in the end zone, and we’d win the game. I had a serious case of deja vu the entire time, though, because I was standing in the same position looking in the same direction feeling the same way about the Vols-Gators game that I had two years prior. We were in a commercial break, so I sat down and thought about it: What in the world would I do if the unimaginable and miraculous happened again? I only got as far as planning a long, hot shower before we were back from commercial and I was consoling myself with a game-tying field goal, figuring that we would be favored to win in overtime.

You know how that ended. A long pass into the end zone with time expired and watching the Gators celebrate a win over the Vols again.

So, what do you do after a soul-crushing loss to a hated rival? A few suggestions:

What to do after a soul-crushing loss to a hated rival

Eat some ice cream. I just finished a bowl of Blue Bell Rocky Mountain Road. Chocolate ice cream with chocolate-covered peanuts, pecans, almonds, and walnuts with a marshmallow swirl. It is delicious, even if it is named after those other mountains way out in Colorado. If you eat enough of it, it also has the added benefit of inducing a sugar coma, and it’s hard to remember traumatic events in that state. Really, all you want is more ice cream, so it’s a self-perpetuating cure.

Eat some jalapeno Fritos. I first found these on a recent trip up to Iowa, and I think I ate them all the way from Indianapolis to Waterloo. They’re Fritoey but not so much that it tastes like you’re licking your dog’s paws. They’re also spicy enough to keep you eating long past the point you really would like to stop, so it keeps your mind occupied with important questions like, “Why can’t I stop eating these?”

Go sit on the porch swing with your six-year-old. This took some effort, to be honest, but it was aided by my littlest one asking me, “Are you mad?” right after the game like she was afraid I was mad at her. I don’t know, honey, are you a Gators fan? No? Okay, then.

Just kidding. I didn’t give her that litmus test. Besides, she’s small enough that we still choose her clothes, so she wears orange, darnit.

Anyway, we got some fresh air and a change of scenery out on the deck, and we were visited by the neighborhood stray cat. Omi loves that stupid cat. And she doesn’t really care about soul-crushing defeats to rival teams, so if I hadn’t already been in a sugar and Frito coma, I would have probably recognized this as a perspective or something. As it went, we stayed out there for five minutes until my cravings compelled me back into the kitchen.

Listen to the players. No joke, I am constantly amazed at the maturity college football players display in the wake of heart-wrenching losses. You can tell they’re disappointed, but they already have their minds right, pointed toward the next day, the next practice, the next opponent. Don’t let one opponent beat you twice. Unless it’s jalapeno Fritos, then it’s fine.

Watch some other games. This will make you realize that (1) you’re not the only one who’s had a rough day, and (2) there’s still a lot of season left. As I write this, Kentucky is leading South Carolina 20-13 late in the fourth quarter. LSU (#12) just got mauled by Mississippi State. Can you imagine how you’d have felt to lose by 30 to the Gators? UCLA got beat by unranked Memphis. Kansas State got beat by unranked Vanderbilt. Missouri looked terrible against Purdue.

These things remind you that we’re one game into the SEC season. Missouri doesn’t look good. South Carolina’s impressive start is in jeopardy. Maybe Kentucky and Vandy are okay. Florida won today, but their non-score and non-turnover numbers aren’t going to be better than Tennessee’s.  When we recalibrate win probabilities Monday, that LSU game is going to take a hit and might even look winnable. Yes, Georgia still looks good, but that’s nothing that more ice cream and jalapeno Fritos can’t fix.

It’s here. Tennessee-Florida Gameday. It’s a why game, why the players play, the coaches coach, and the fans fill the stands. Vols. Gators. The SEC on CBS.

And it’s today.

We’re having an online game-watching party right here, and you’re invited.

• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Radio: Vol Network (WNML in Knoxville)
• Live Stats

P.S. There’s still time to submit your answers to this week’s Guessing Game questions.

While we’re all waiting for the Vols to kick off against the Gators at 3:30, hang out with us here. There will be a separate game thread for the Vols, which will go live later.

Here are the schedules again, the short one curated for Vols fans first, and then the full schedule for the day:

Complete college football TV schedule