The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Lexington today to take on the Kentucky Wildcats at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

In an age where the term is overused, this may actually be a must-win game for Butch Jones. He’ll have to do it with an offense that has spent much of the season stumbling around in the dark, drunk, with a shotgun pointed at its own feet, and he’ll have to do it without reserve offensive lineman Jack Jones,  without star running back John Kelly and backup linebacker Will Ignont, and without former starting quarterback Quinten Dormady ready if something happens to Jarrett Guarantano.

The good news is that for a guy whose teams play too many close games, Butch Jones has dominated Kentucky. Tennessee is also much more talented, and Kentucky’s stats prove that they’re not Alabama. If the Vols can do these five things, they can win.

That said, the Vols are 5.5-point underdogs, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine and all of the other stat models like Kentucky to win in a close one.

While you’re waiting for kickoff, download and listen to our game preview podcast, submit your answers to our weekly GRT Guessing Game, and use our handy college football TV schedule and rooting guide for Vols fans to enjoy the rest of the day.

Go Vols.

• Kickoff: Oct. 28, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Watch online
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• Live stats

This week of college football features a night game for the Vols and a Saturday afternoon filled with a ton of bright shiny objects for Tennessee fans.

Here’s the Week 9 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what might be of interest to a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Thursday, October 26

Hey, it’s Thursday, and the weekend’s football is starting. Be there.

Friday, October 27

If you’re feeling down in the dumps this season, have a look at Florida State. That grass is browner. And here’s to wishing former Vol Riley Ferguson success.

Gameday, October 28

It seems like forever since we Vols fans have had a night game, but pace yourself, because there are a lot of games on tap today, especially in the afternoon time slot.

Noon slot

SHOOTOUT! I’M 50!

Afternoon slot

My goodness, there’s a lot of interesting shiny objects to look at here for Vols fans. First, there’s the Cocktail Party, between two teams we both want to lose even though it wouldn’t matter. Then there are two big national games, NC State at Notre Dame and Penn State at Ohio State. And finally, two games featuring future opponents and a game featuring UCF, which we’re suddenly interested in for some reason.

Evening slot

Go Vols, and when we’re done, go Yellow Jackets.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 9

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

Tennessee quarterback Quinten Dormady will not be available for the Kentucky game this evening due to a shoulder injury. Dormady has reportedly been battling the injury since “well before the start of the season” and is now exploring surgery as an option to correct the problem.

Hearing now that this has been an issue since before the season really makes you wonder about Dormady starting the first five games of the season and how much it may have impacted his performance. But if he was hampered by the injury, why not start Jarrett Guarantano sooner? Perhaps the coaches felt that Dormady with the injury was still the better option at the time, and maybe Dormady figures that time spent as the backup on the bench now provides him with the opportunity to engage in a long-term fix that requires recovery time.

It does leave the team in a risky situation, though, because if Guarantano goes down with injury, that will thrust freshman Will McBride — the nation’s #29 dual-threat quarterback in the Class of 2017 — into the starting role. McBride hasn’t played yet this season and has thus far been destined for a redshirt season.

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine, having done a pretty good job with the Alabama game last week, now turns its attention to the Tennessee-Kentucky game this weekend in Lexington. The bottom line? The SPM agrees with Vegas, ESPN’s FPI, and S&P+ in concluding that Kentucky should win this one by somewhere around five or six points. I’ve eyeball-adjusted that to three points.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Kentucky’s resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Kentucky’s Schedule (5-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
• W9: Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At Georgia
• W13: Lousiville

The Wildcats’ schedule is ranked as the nation’s 59th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is now ranked 9th, which is a huge jump from last week due to having played Alabama.

Stats

Purely from a passing yards allowed perspective, Kentucky will be the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this season. Their run defense looks most like South Carolina’s and Georgia Tech’s, and their scoring defense is a mix between UMass and Florida. On offense, the best comparisons are South Carolina and UMass on the ground, Alabama through the air, and Florida and South Carolina on the scoreboard. The SPM’s official score prediction is Kentucky 24, Tennessee 18, and my eyeballed adjustment is Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17. Details below.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 124.6 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 123.6 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Kentucky, is South Carolina, which is giving up 142.0 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 120 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 116.8. Tennessee got 148 on the ground against Georgia Tech. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 120.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 247.0 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 135.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 110.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 194 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 137.9 rushing yards per game and got 144 against Tennessee. I’m guessing that Kentucky will get a little over its average and end up with 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 165.1 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 270.1, which means they are the worst pass defense the Vols have played so far this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 232.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 133 against them. I’m going to guess that Tennessee will put up around 150 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 158.1 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 201.7. This number is almost exactly the same as the “next worst” opponent, which happens to be Alabama (201.0). The Tide got 332 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 226.4 passing yards per game and got 129 against Tennessee. Those numbers make it really difficult to feel good about a prediction, but I’m going to take a stab in the dark and go with Kentucky putting up around its average of 200 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 19.6 points per game (discount this by the poor trend the last few games, though), and Kentucky is allowing 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is allowing 31.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 17 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 20 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 18 points against Kentucky. Because that’s a weird football number, and because of the Tennessee offense’s trend toward the drain recently, I’m going with 17.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.9 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 23.7 points, and they got 26 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 25.1 points and got 15 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 120
• Kentucky rushing yards: 150
• Tennessee passing yards: 150
• Kentucky passing yards: 200
• Tennessee points: 17
• Kentucky points: 20

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Kentucky 23.8, Tennessee 18.3.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The SPM is in agreement with Vegas, as the spread opened at 5.5, with an over/under of 46.5. That makes it look like Kentucky, 26-21 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 43.8% chance of beating Kentucky, and S&P+ gives them a 42% chance, setting the game at Kentucky, 26.2-22.8. So S&P+ likes the Vols to cover, but the SPM thinks the opening line was perfect and is therefore staying far away from it.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Alabama last week.

• Tennessee rushing yards: 80 (actually 64)
• Alabama rushing yards: 300 (actually 272)
• Tennessee passing yards: 185 (actually 44)
• Alabama passing yards: 170 (actually 332)
• Tennessee points: 7 (actually 7)
• Alabama points: 45 (actually 45)

Hey, I’d say that’s pretty good, although those numbers were eyeball-adjusted. The SPM itself said Alabama 33, Tennessee 7.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Alabama -37 at kickoff, and the SPM said Tennessee would cover, so no. The SPM actually fell off quite a bit from its first full week in the wild when it went 68%. Last week, it dropped to 53%.

Over the course of the last three games, we’ve seen the Vols go up against two of the nation’s best teams, and the Vols have the statistical bruises to prove it. This week, Tennessee gets a bit of a reprieve, as they trade elite opponents for a merely good one. Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Kentucky Wildcats do well, what they don’t do well, and what it all might mean for Tennessee when they meet up with them Saturday night in Lexington.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Honestly, I’m kind of surprised to learn that Kentucky’s total offense is ranked 112th in the nation. They’re vulnerable to sacks, they don’t gain a lot of yards either on the ground or through the air. Somehow, they seem to be good in the red zone, though, and they’re fairly safe with the ball in the air. Overall, this does not look like a particularly frightening offense.

Defensive observations. Well, this looks better than last week. Kentucky is fairly stout against the run, but other than that, they’re middle-of-the-road to just plain bad. Honestly, it looks like the opportunity for the Vols here is in the passing game, if only they can manage a passing attack.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Kentucky is extremely good on special teams and very good in the discipline categories of penalties and turnovers. They’re good returning kicks and punts and at covering both punts and kicks. And they do not give you things like free yards from penalties or fumbles.

Kentucky Players to Watch

Offense

Senior quarterback Stephen Johnson is currently 112-of-183 for 1,355 yards and nine touchdowns with four interceptions. He’s also a threat to run, as he’s carried the ball 53 times for another 198 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His partner in the backfield is sophomore running back Benny Snell, who’s rushed 133 times for 541 yards and six touchdowns. The main target in the passing game is senior wide receiver Garrett Johnson, who’s caught 32 passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns.

Defense

On defense, Kentucky’s tackles are pretty evenly distributed among junior defensive back Mike Edwards (54), senior linebacker Courtney Love (51), and junior defensive back Darius West (49). Junior linebacker Josh Allen leads the team in sacks with 6.5 and tackles for loss. Edwards, in addition to leading the team in tackles, also leads the team in passes defended (8) and interceptions (3).

Special Teams

Senior kicker Austin MacGinnis is 13-of-18 on field goals and is perfect on attempts of 39 yards and shorter. He’s 3-of-5 between 40-49 and 2-of-5 over 50. Only 17 of his 39 kickoffs are touchbacks, so there’s opportunity on kickoff returns there for the Vols.

The Gameplan

Tennessee should still be able to out-talent Kentucky. The Vols defense should be able to lock down Kentucky’s fairly feeble rushing attack, make them one-dimensional, and then turn up the heat with pressure and sacks.

On offense, we may find rushing yards hard to come by once again this week, but there are opportunities in the passing game if only Jarrett Guarantano and the receivers can find something that works. They shouldn’t have to worry too much about pressure in the backfield, so maybe that’s all they need to finally find some offensive magic. And if the passing game gets rolling, maybe that opens things up for John Kelly and the run game.

But the Vols are starting at a disadvantage with their tendency to give away gifts in penalties, as we can’t count on Kentucky returning the favor.

Bottom line, Tennessee’s defense should be able to do its part to win the game, and the offense will have opportunities through the air. Whether they can finally take advantage of opportunities, though, well, that’s the question.