Sigh.

The Tennessee Volunteers fell to 4-6 overall and winless in the conference with a numbing 50-17 loss to the Missouri Tigers tonight in Columbia, Missouri. A more highly-touted roster kept it close in the first half, tying the game at 17 with just over a minute to play before halftime, but was utterly overwhelmed on both sides of the ball after that.

For a while, it seemed like maybe, just maybe, the Vols were going to be able to scrape together some magic. True freshman quarterback Will McBride, in his first start, surprisingly provided a bit of a missing element for the offense, scrambling several times for a much-needed first down, and he finished the game with 63 rushing yards despite multiple sacks that count against that total. And the defense seemed content to give up some rushing yards as a trade off for selling out to stop the vaunted Missouri passing attack. And it worked to keep the game tied. For a while.

But then everything fell apart again. Missouri started hitting long passes to complement their long rushing plays, and the Vols offense just shut down. John Kelly got the equivalent of a technical foul in basketball for saying something presumably unfriendly to an official. On a team with Kelly and Ty Chandler, McBride and his 63 yards led the team in rushing. He was sacked five times. He threw two interceptions. He fumbled once. Or twice. I’ve forgotten.

And he was the best player on the team.

Sigh.

The game got so out of hand that the TV commentators were obviously reaching for things to talk about to fill the fourth quarter of air time. And of course, they devoted a lot of that time to discussing Butch Jones’ job security and openly suggesting that the administration not delay due to the early signing period this year. When that got them only halfway through the fourth, they moved on to talking about the teams competing for the four spots in the College Football Playoff.

Good times for Vols fans.

Who knows when we’ll hear something definitive about the future of the coaching staff. There’s a new rumor on Twitter every five minutes or so if you enjoy being led around by your nose. I figure we’ll know when we know.

In the meantime, the team has two more games, and they need both of them for bowl eligibility and at least one of them to avoid the program’s first-ever eight-loss season. If you believe the odds, the margin will only get thinner next week after a loss to LSU, and the final game of the season against Vandy will be the last chance to avoid a historical low.

Sigh.

The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbia to take on the Missouri Tigers tonight at 7:30 p.m. on the SEC Network. From earlier this week, we know that Missouri is really good at passing the ball and at generating sacks and tackles for loss but not so good against the pass themselves, that the main guys to watch are quarterback Drew Lock, receiver J’Mon Moore, and defensive lineman Terry Beckner, Jr., that Tennessee’s roster features a lot more guys who were highly-recruited coming out of high school, and that it probably won’t matter because that 10.5-point spread in favor of Missouri looks about right to both eyeballs and machines. But, if the Vols can do these five things, they can certainly still pull out a win.

We’ll see you tonight at 7:30 right here. Until then, here’s today’s college football TV schedule and rotting guide for Vols fans (I’m leaving that typo because it made me laugh out loud). Also, don’t forget to submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game.

Go Vols.

• Kickoff: Nov. 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Watch online
• Listen online
• Live stats

Here’s the Week 11 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what might be of interest to a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Tuesday-Friday, November 7-10

There’s really not much of interest here all week, but it is football, so you know.

Gameday, November 11

This week will mark three night games in a row for the Vols, and I don’t know about you, but early Sunday mornings have been sleepy times for me this month. But there’s lots of good stuff with football noises on the television this Saturday, so man up.

Noon slot

Maybe it won’t matter much after the Tennessee-Missouri game this evening, but the LSU Tigahs are next, and so if you want to get a jump on what to expect for next week, here’s your chance.

Also in this time slot are the Florida Gators, and while I’m not a huge fan of schadenfreude, I do like anything that’s going to give the Vols an edge in the SEC East, so if they struggle and turn off recruits, too, well, our own problems may just keep us from feeling too bad about that.

And then there are a couple of big games, but one of them is in the Big 10, and . . . whatever, right? But if you love the process in Ames, the process will love you back.

Bonus: DVR that UCF game. You never know when it may come in handy.

Afternoon slot

All that stuff I said about Florida up there, same sentiment goes for Georgia. If Auburn winning means even one less blue chip commit for the Bulldogs, I’ll take it.

Vanderbilt plays at 4:00, and maybe we’ll want to know more about them, so keep them on the DVR, too, just in case. It could also turn into a Peek In game if Georgia-Auburn gets boring.

Evening slot

This time slot is going to test your fandom. Go Vols at 7:30 on the SEC Network against the Missouri Tigers, and all, but man, there are some good games and man that grass looks green. Root for Mississippi State to upset Alabama, and root for nice guy Mark Richt against the program everyone loves to hate. And that TCU at Oklahoma game just screams fireworks, so keep your eyes on it.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 11

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine and I disagreed last week, and the DNA won out over the bits and bytes. We agree on the outcome this week, but not on the spread, as the SPM is taking Tennessee and the points while I think Missouri covers despite Tennessee ostensibly having more talent on the field.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Missouri’s resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
• W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
• W9: Beat UConn, 52-12.
• W10: Beat Florida, 45-16.
• W11: Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 50th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is now 18th, so keep that disparity in mind as you look at the stats.

Stats

This weekend, the Vols will face the best passing offense they’ve seen all season but also the worst scoring defense they’ve seen all season. How does Missouri look otherwise? Read on.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 181.3 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Massachusetts, which is giving up 200.7 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 135 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Florida, which is allowing 172.8. Tennessee got 183 on the ground against Florida. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 160.

Missouri rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 237.3 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 169.2 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is getting 168.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is not very close at all. They’re averaging 278.4 rushing yards per game, and they got 272 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Missouri will get a little less than its average of 169 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense. Let’s call it 150.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 168.1 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 260.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is giving up 279.4 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 242 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 239.4 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 133 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 200 passing yards this weekend.

Missouri passing

Missouri is the best passing offense the Vols have faced all season. The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 150.0 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 314.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is getting 288.1 yards per game through the air, but got only 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with Missouri putting up about 240 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

This will be the worst scoring defense the Vols have played all season. Tennessee is averaging 20.8 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 33.6. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is allowing 30.9 points per game. However, Tennessee only got 17 against them. The most points Tennessee has scored this season in a non-overtime game against an FBS opponent is 26 (against Kentucky). They scored 28 against Georgia Tech in regulation. Their ceiling appears to be 42, but that came against FCS Indiana State. I’m thinking the Vols would normally score somewhere between those numbers (28 and 42), but that this offensive line is going to have trouble with Missouri’s defensive line, so I’m going with the low end and saying 31.

Missouri scoring

Tennessee is allowing 25.2 points per game. Missouri is averaging 36.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 31.8 points, and they got 28 against Tennessee in regulation. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 40.9 points and got 45 against Tennessee. I’m going with Missouri putting up about 43 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 160
• Missouri rushing yards: 150
• Tennessee passing yards: 200
• Missouri passing yards: 240
• Tennessee points: 31
• Missouri points: 43

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Missouri 33.3, Tennessee 24, a spread of Missouri -9.3.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The spread is Missouri -10.5, with an over/under of 61.5. That makes it look like Missouri, 36-26 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 35.4% chance of beating Missouri, and the S&P+ puts it at 28%, setting the game at Missouri, 33.7-23.7.

So the humans and machines are in general agreement on the 10.5-point spread, but the SPM is going with Tennessee and the points. Me, I’m taking Missouri to cover.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Southern Miss last week.

• Tennessee rushing yards: 135 (actually 95)
• Southern Mississippi rushing yards: 175 (actually 118)
• Tennessee passing yards: 200 (actually 115)
• Southern Mississippi passing yards: 130 (actually 161)
• Tennessee points: 23 (actually 24)
• Southern Mississippi points: 14 (actually 10)

Once again, those were my eyeball-adjusted predictions. The SPM projection on the score was Southern Miss 18.5, Tennessee 14.8.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Tennessee -6.5, and the SPM thought Southern Miss would win outright, so it lost when Tennessee covered. With human intervention, we went with Tennessee covering, so hooray for DNA, at least on this game. Overall, the SPM went 33-26 against the spread for the week, posting 55.93%. Over the four weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, 54.55%, and 55.93% for an overall rate of 57.87%.

So far this week, we’ve looked at what Missouri does well (and not so well) and which of their players are most important to their team. Now let’s take a look Tennessee’s and Missouri’s projected starters with each players’ class and published recruiting rankings. If you can’t see the entire chart embedded below, click here for full page:

As before, the color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom. The highest-rated player on either team is Tennessee’s Trey Smith, with a rating of .992.

Here’s the list of starters, sorted by recruiting ranking (full page here):

Observations

• The stars breakdown:
  • 5-stars: Tennessee 1, Missouri 1
  • 4-stars: Tennessee 10, Missouri 2
  • 3-stars: Tennessee 11, Missouri 18
  • 2-stars: Tennessee 0, Missouri 0
  • No rating: Tennessee 1, Missouri 0
• Tennessee has 16 of the 20 highest-rated players.
• Missouri’s highest-rated players are junior defensive tackle Terry Beckner, Jr., junior quarterback Drew Lock, and redshirt junior linebacker Brandon Lee.
• Missouri’s highest-rated unit is its offensive backfield with Lock and senior running back Ish Witter.
• Missouri’s lowest-rated unit is its offensive line.
• Surprisingly, Tennessee’s highest-rated unit is its offensive line, although that is largely due to Drew Richmond being included, and he is questionable for the game Saturday. Also, even if Richmond is in the lineup, there’s still a wide gap between he and Trey Smith on one hand and the other guys along the rest of the line.

Yesterday, we looked at what the Missouri Tigers do well and what they don’t do particularly well. Today, we’ll look at the players who make good things happen for the Tigers.

Offense

The Missouri Tigers offense is powered by junior quarterback Drew Lock. Currently, Lock is 176-for-290 for a whopping 2,795 yards and 31 touchdowns. He averages nearly 20 completions per game and nearly 16 yards per completion. You may hear folks talk about Lock being involved in the running game as well, but the stats don’t really bear that out for this season. He’s rushed 28 times for a total of 45 yards in 2017.

Lock does a good job of spreading the wealth, as four wide receivers all average over three receptions per game. Leading the way is senior J’Mon Moore (44 catches for 740 yards and eight touchdowns, an average of 82.22 yards per game). Sophomore Jonathon Johnson is next with 34 catches for 563 yards (62.56 per game) and four TDs, and junior Emanuel Hall follows him with 26 catches for 604 yards and four TDs. Sophomore Dimetrios Mason also averages over three receptions per game but has only 119 yards on the season.

The Tigers rushing attack is by committee, with three backs sharing the load. Senior running back Ish Witter leads the way with 504 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore Damarea Crockett and freshman Larry Rountree have 481 and 369 yards and two and four touchdowns respectively. Crockett, however, has been injured and is not expected to play against Tennessee.

Defense

The team’s leading tackler is sophomore linebacker Cale Garrett, who has 67 so far this season. Junior linebacker Terez Hall is right behind him with 64.

Where the defense excels, though, is behind the opponent’s line of scrimmage, and leading the way there is junior lineman Terry Becker, Jr.. He has six sacks for 29 yards and six solo tackles for loss. Also making things rough for offensive lines are senior lineman Marcell Frazier (3.5 sacks, 4 solo TFLs), Garrett (2 sacks, 4 solo TFLs), and Hall (a sack and 8 solo TFLs).

The secondary appears to be led by a pair of seniors, Logan Cheadle and Thomas Wilson. Cheadle has an interception, three pass breakups, and four passes defended, while Wilson has an interception, two pass breakups, and three passes defended.

Special Teams

Sophomore kicker Tucker McCann (a fictional name if I’ve ever heard one), is 8-of-10 on field goals this season with one block. He’s had touchbacks on only 31 of 50 kickoffs.

Punter Corey Fatony is almost as good as our own Trevor Daniel, as he ranks 8th in the nation in punting average with 45.6 per punt.

Sophomore Richaud Floyd is the team’s main punt returner, and he took one to the end zone against Idaho.

Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Missouri Tigers do well and what they don’t do well, along with what it all might mean for the Vols when they meet up with the Tigers Saturday night.

National Unit Rankings

Offense

Offensive observations. The Missouri Tigers are only 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference, but they are still sporting the 15th-best offense in the nation. And before you discount that based on their schedule, note that they have played ranked Georgia and Auburn teams, as well as a good South Carolina defense. They’re averaging 484 yards of offense and 36.6 points per game. They’ve scored more points against Georgia than anyone else (28), and at least double every other Georgia opponent but Notre Dame, which was still nine points behind them.

So, yeah. Missouri is good on offense. How do they do it? An excellent passing attack, primarily, with an offensive line giving it plenty of time and protection to operate. The Tigers are giving up less than one sack and less than three tackles for loss per game. They’re getting nearly 315 passing yards per game. They’re both efficient (4th in Team Passing Efficiency) and explosive (7th in Passing Yards per Completion). And they’re good on first down and third down and in the red zone.

If there’s good news for Tennessee’s defense, it’s that Missouri’s running game is not nearly as good as its passing game. It isn’t terrible, though, either, so selling out to stop the passing attack isn’t without risk.

Defense

Defensive observations. Fortunately for the Vols, Missouri’s defense is about as bad as its offense is good. They are 104th in Total Defense and 106th in Scoring Defense, giving up 441 yards and 33.6 points per game. They’re particularly bad against the pass, giving up 260 passing yards per game, and they’re not much better against the run, as they also give up 181 rushing yards per game.

While that’s all good news for a struggling offense, what isn’t good news is that Missouri somehow continues to develop havoc-wreakers on the defensive line. Despite not being particularly good overall on defense, they are extremely effective at creating a mess behind the line of scrimmage. They’re 14th in tackles for loss and 31st in sacks, and that’s frightening news for a makeshift Tennessee offensive line down to its final few available players.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Missouri appears to be solid when punting and dangerous when returning punts and kickoffs. Their kick return defense, however, is vulnerable, and that’s excellent news for Tennessee, especially if Evan Berry is able to go.

Missouri hasn’t been particularly good or lucky in the hidden yardage stats. They’re committing a lot of penalties for a lot of yards, and they’re not winning on turnovers at all.

Bottom line

Missouri’s good at:

• Offense, particularly passing offense;
• Generating sacks and tackles for loss;
• Punting; and
• Returning punts and kickoffs

Missouri’s not good at:

• Defense, particularly pass defense;
• Covering kickoff returns