Author Archives: Brad Shepard

You’d be right to be a Tennessee fan and be concerned that the Vols are hosting a top-15 program in a must-win situation in order to make it to the postseason [at least, with a traditional 6-6 record…]

Yet, that’s exactly what position I think the Vols are in this weekend when the Kentucky Wildcats come to Neyland Stadium for a chilly matchup.

It’s been a dream season for coach Mark Stoops, star running back Benny Snell Jr., dynamic pass-rusher Josh Allen and the rest of the Wildcats, who played Georgia last weekend for a chance to represent the SEC East in the SEC Championship Game. Prior to that loss to the better Bulldogs, the only setback for Stoops’ team was an overtime loss to Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

No matter if it was the phantom pass interference call giving them an untimed down they turned into a touchdown or breaking a long losing streak to Florida, UK has simply found a way all season. Now, Tennessee has to get by the ‘Cats.

You may ask why this is a must-win with Tennessee only needing two wins to close the season in order to get to six wins. That’s because, in my estimation, Mizzou is a horrible matchup for the Vols with its elite passing game and the way Drew Lock is playing. The Tigers look better on defense, can beat you with the running backs, and I don’t think the Vols can score enough to win.

Kentucky, on the other hand, isn’t a bad matchup. Yes, the Cats are strong on both lines of scrimmage and seasoned with veterans. They also have Snell. But they don’t score a ton of points, and UT is better-equipped to play in a slugfest than a shootout. This is a vitally important game for the Vols, so let’s look at the keys to winning.

KEYS

Make Wilson beat you

Tennessee is 10th in the SEC in rush defense and now has to face the league’s best running back in Snell. That’s not good news. It also shouldn’t give the Vols the warm-and-fuzzies that UK quarterback Terry Wilson has looked much better throwing the ball in the past two weeks against Missouri and Georgia.

But the Vols have to make him beat them.

That means loading the box and going all-out to slow down Snell. That’s what Georgia did, and it worked. Now, UT doesn’t have anywhere near the talent on that side of the ball that the Bulldogs do, but coach Jeremy Pruitt has made a habit of making things difficult on certain aspects of the game. The Vols have to limit Snell and get the Cats off the field on third downs.

Slow Allen

Kentucky edge-rusher Josh Allen is a next-level player who’ll be one of the highest picks in the NFL Draft.

Now, he gets to go up against Tennessee’s hapless offensive line that couldn’t even block Charlotte last week. Yes, the 49ers are good against the run, but they haven’t exactly played quality competition all year. Still, they dominated the Vols up front.

Good luck, Jarrett Guarantano. Good luck, UT offense.

Allen is going to get through at times; there’s no doubt about that. So, offensive coordinator Tyson Helton needs to mask the issues by the quick passing game like UT did against South Carolina. Quick-hitters are the only way to keep Guarantano from getting killed.

Take some shots

I will forever be frustrated with Tennessee fans for ripping Guarantano when the kid has two or three seconds to throw the football. That is a lack of football acumen.

You can think Keller Chryst would be a better option. You can think Guarantano doesn’t do a great job reading blitzes. Those things are fine. But Guarantano is a tough kid who’s done a good job this year. He isn’t the reason UT’s offense sucks.

The offensive line is. Helton deserves some blame, too.

But if Tennessee can loosen UK’s defense by keeping it on its toes with the short passing game and perhaps a little running success, the Vols must take some shots downfield. That’s how they beat Auburn, and we’ve not seen a lot of it since. This is the kind of game where you must pull out all the stops.

Get hot early

It’s going to be extremely cold in Knoxville with the high temperature barely creeping over 40 degrees.

If the Vols do what they did against Florida, you’re going to see a lot of grumbling fans get up and go home. That’s why UT needs to jump ahead early and keep the heat on. If the crowd gets into it, it could be a fun game.

Tennessee has been awful at Neyland Stadium this year, and that’s disappointing for the first year of the Pruitt era. It’s high time the Vols play with a home-field advantage and see what Neyland can do for them. I hope the crowd is into it because it is such a huge game. This isn’t . the Kentucky we’re used to seeing.

If UT gets up a score early, the crowd will follow.

Abernathy and Flowers? Pray for hours

The last few weeks have been torture for Tennessee’s secondary with Micah Abernathy and Trevon Flowers out for at least the past month with injuries and Alontae Taylor missing swaths of action thanks to two targeting calls.

Now, Taylor will be back on the field to start the game against the Wildcats, and he may have company from his two buddies. Flowers and Abernathy are both game-time decisions according to Pruitt, and both have seen some action on the practice field this week.

The only member of UT’s secondary to intercept a pass this year is Bryce Thompson, so UT can definitely use some playmakers on the back end. Those two guys — starting safeties — being on the back level will allow Thompson to get after the quarterback some. When the Vols can creep up a DB in the box and sometimes blitz the quarterback, good things happen.

UT needs those guys out there. Badly.

Prediction: Tennessee has to win one, so I’m going with my heart, even if my head says it probably won’t happen. Pruitt gets another big one.

Vols win, 24-23

LOCKS

At this point of the season, 5-2 is a solid tally, and we’ve moved back in black for the season now standing at 32-31. It’s taken a strong three-week run to get there, and we’ll try to continue that hot streak this week. The start of the season was bizarre, and even Alabama didn’t help us any. But we have worked hard to get back to MAKING MONEY, so let’s keep it going.

There isn’t much time to get back to the good, so we’ll set the modest goal of being six games over .500 in the next three weeks. If we can get to that point, it’ll be a solid season.

Last week, MTSU handled the 13.5-point spread against Western Kentucky, West Virginia’s late two-point conversion gave the Mountaineers the outright win over Texas when it was a two-point underdog. Georgia breezed by Kentucky to make the nine-point spread look like a piece of cake, USC won by 17, and though that game was 13.5 at kickoff, we called it at 16.5 and still won (barely). Boston College wrapped up the wins by toppling Virginia Tech to cover a 2.5-point spread.

We said Florida would cover a six-point spread against Missouri, and instead, the Gators got whipped in one of the biggest stunners of the SEC season. Finally, I thought the Cal-Wazzu game would go over 50, and it never got close as the Cougars won 19-13.

Still, we’ll take 5-2 all day every day. Let’s repeat that feat, shall we?

1. West Virginia -11.5 over TCU: Whew. Too many favorites this week, huh? Yeah, I think so, too. But I’m a massive fan of Will Grier and Dana Holgorsen, and this is the kind of offense that rarely takes games off. TCU doesn’t have the same D Iowa State does. Mountaineers roll.
2. Ohio State -4 over Michigan State: The Buckeyes are in trouble and fading fast. So why in the world would I take them on the road against Sparty? I am not a Brian Lewerke believer, and Dwayne Haskins will make just enough plays for OSU to win by eight or more.
3. MTSU -13.5 over UTEP: This is one of those lines that are puzzling to me. Just because UTEP beat an awful Rice team for its first win of the year last week doesn’t mean it’s ready to hang with good teams like the Blue Raiders. This one’s gonna get ugly.
4. Washington State -6 over Colorado: The Cougars killed us last week against Cal even though they won. They won’t throw up two clunkers in a row. The Minshew Moustache won’t allow it. Wazzu rolls.
5.  Purdue -11.5 over Minnesota: I’m going to keep riding the Fighting Brohms. I believe. Do I like that it’s on the road against a good defensive team? No, I don’t love it. But I like it enough to roll with it.
6. Oregon +4.5 over Utah:  Another puzzling one. Utah is perhaps the better team, but only when Tyler Huntley is playing. He’s out for the year. Give me Mario Cristobal’s team to surge to seven wins.
7. LSU -13.5 over Arkansas: What? The Tigers aren’t THAT beat-up after the game against the Tide. The Tigers are leap-years better than the Hogs. They’ll dominate this one and win something like 27-6.

 

 

This is going to be short and sweet.

The first reason for that is there simply wasn’t much about which to be excited in a lackluster 14-3 win over Conference USA also-ran Charlotte that looked like neither the players nor the coaches wanted to be in Neyland Stadium. Secondly, you probably don’t want to read too much about the game against the 49ers. Heck, you may have even decided to skip the game and enjoy a beautiful fall Saturday with your family instead.

It would have been a good one to sit out, that’s for sure.

But, as most coaches say, you never apologize for a win. Tennessee got its fourth on Saturday, even though it was hard to feel any warm-and-fuzzies at all from it. They still have to somehow get two of the final three to get bowl-eligible the traditional way.

That seems hard when you consider Kentucky is rugged, good on both lines and has a star pass-rusher in Josh Allen and stud running back in Benny Snell who will give the Vols fits. Missouri is an absolutely horrid matchup nightmare for Tennessee with Drew Lock and a dynamic passing game that torched Florida on Saturday. And while Vanderbilt looks like the most winnable, the Commodores have won two straight against UT and will be at home in Nashville.

Yes, Saturday sucked. But it may just be the last time this Tennessee team gets to experience a win this year. There are certainly no guarantees from here on.

So, today’s column looks at some positives [regardless of how difficult they are to find]. We’ll give a nod to the past as well as the future.

First of all, let’s look back. To appreciate where you hope you’re going, you have to embrace [or at least understand] where you’ve been. Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle and Todd Kelly Jr. have played a lot of football for Tennessee over the past four years, and while they certainly aren’t elite SEC players, they’ve had some good moments in orange and white, even though a lot of folks see them as part of awful defensive issues of the past few years.

They had a nice game against Charlotte, which was good to see. Those are all seniors, and this will be their last run in Knoxville, so to see a guy like Phillips — a phenomenal kid from an extraordinary family — have a game where he got four tackles, a sack and two tackles for a loss is nice to see. Defensive tackle Tuttle added four more tackles, and Kelly Jr. had seven.

For TKJr., it was extra special. He had a scary situation this offseason that called into question his health and some other things, and it was obvious in the early stages of the season when he couldn’t break into the lineup that he was never going to be the same player he was when he arrived on campus as a highly coveted recruit who was offered by everybody from Alabama to Georgia to USC to Ohio State. The only real reason he’s on the field is because of injuries to Trevon Flowers and Micah Abernathy.

But he responded on Saturday with his best outing of the year. The Vols need the more athletic Flowers and the steady Abernathy back soon, and they need the light to come on quickly for Shawn Shamburger, but TKJr. was needed on Saturday, and he responded.

That’s good for everybody to see.

From a future standpoint, you almost had to wonder what was going through Alontae Taylor’s head as he drew his second targeting penalty of the season. With him out, UT’s already depleted secondary got slimmer, and Marquill Osborne had a frustrating injury in relief of the true freshman. But the other freshman CB — Bryce Thompson — had a big game.

He continued to flash, getting to Miami transfer quarterback Evan Shirreffs for a sack and then picking off Shirreffs at the end of the game to seal the win.

It’s sad that the Vols needed big defensive plays in this one, but they absolutely did. With so many offensive line issues — problems that don’t look fixable this season — the loss of Ty Chandler, who was banged up and had very limited snaps, and the ineffectiveness of quarterback Jarrett Guarantano and play-caller Tyson Helton, the Vols needed a big-time performance from their defense.

That side of the ball rose to the occasion all afternoon long.

Without a win over Charlotte, there was zero chance of a bowl game. But UT won — no matter how hideously — to set up at least an outside shot to get bowl-eligible. You can poo-poo making it at 6-6 or even 5-7 all you want to, but the young kids need all the practice they can get, and the Jeremy Pruitt era needs to end the first season with some positivity.

It would be good for recruiting, it would be good for player development, and it also would be good for some of these seniors who endured last year’s 4-8 debacle and the topsy-turvy Butch Jones era and end up winners.

There is a long, long way to go before we can call them that. No matter what happens the rest of the way, this group of outgoing players aren’t going to be remembered the way we thought they would when they were recruited and part of quality, highly-ranked recruiting classes.

Blame whoever you want to for that, but the evidence remains that UT is the least-talented team in the SEC. It is what it is, and if the Vols can make a bowl game this year, it’ll be because of that Auburn win and because they stole a couple down the stretch.

If you don’t beat the 49ers, none of that is possible.

It still is, even if it was very, very ugly.

At this point, I feel like Tennessee is going to struggle to make a bowl game. But that’s not to say the Vols can’t.

When you have a game like they had against South Carolina where you’ve got myriad opportunities to win and you can’t come through with the W, it gives you an ominous feeling about the rest of the year.

The Vols should come away with the home win this weekend against Charlotte, even if Tim Jordan and Ty Chandler are banged-up and UT is going to nurse some injuries. If that happens, you look at needing to win two of three remaining games against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

Everybody knows UK’s story, and there’s no way you can predict a win against the ‘Cats, even if they’ve not blown everybody’s socks off. They’re still a one-loss team and a top-10 team in the country. They win with defense and running back Benny Snell, and they’re a bad matchup for the Vols because they’re so good along both lines of scrimmage. Tennessee can win that game at home, but the Vols also shouldn’t cry if UK gets banged up against Georgia this weekend.

That leaves Mizzou and Vanderbilt. In the game against the Tigers, UT will be at home, and that may be the worst remaining matchup, thanks to quarterback Drew Lock. He hasn’t had a big season, but he’s got a big arm, and Tennessee has been susceptible to pass-happy teams. Tennessee desperately needs injured safety Trevon Flowers back by then. The Vols match up well against the Commodores, but Kyle Shurmur torched them the past two years. With Ke’Shawn Vaughn looking like a budding star, that’s going to be a challenge for UT. Getting Flowers back will be huge.

KEYS

Play the young guys

Everybody was excited to see Jeremy Banks get a lot of run with the linebackers on Saturday after his move there prior to the South Carolina game, but then Chandler and Jordan get hurt, and coach Jeremy Pruitt has him back at running back this week.

Banks is going to help this team as a starter down the road somewhere, and we need to see him get extended looks this weekend. Maybe on both sides of the ball (though I doubt that will happen).

JJ Peterson has seen only special teams action so far, but it’s time to get him on the defense and see if he can help this team on that side of the ball for the stretch run or if he’s a redshirt candidate. He was UT’s best commitment of the first Pruitt class, but the time has come to make the decision if he helps now or down the road.

John Mincey needs an extended look on the defensive line, especially considering Tennessee needs some answers there next season with so many departing seniors. I want to see receiver Cedric Tillman get a few targets. Guys like Kurott Garland and Greg Emerson technically could even get a few snaps and redshirt. So could quarterback JT Shrout, whom everybody wants to see.

Can those players get extended run and UT win? We’ll see.

Don’t let ’em hang around

You may laugh about a team like the Charlotte 49ers hanging around at Neyland Stadium.

Don’t.

This is a bad football team, but it’s one that played better recently, losing by one score to MTSU and beating Southern Miss. The last time we laughed about a team like this coming to UT and hanging around, the Vols were lucky to beat UMass last year.

This Tennessee team that plays on Saturday won’t be the one it trotted out against Alabama or South Carolina. It will be missing some key players it tries to rest before the important final three games. The guys who go out there need to take care of business from the jump.

Take shots

There is nothing wrong with the Vols’ game plan against South Carolina. It worked offensively, after all.

They dinked and dunked down the field, using the horizontal passing game with swings to running backs and receivers to help open up a decent running game. That’s all fine and good against similar teams.

But UT needs to open it up against Charlotte. The dynamic downfield passing attack beat Auburn, and the Vols may need it in other games this year, particularly next week against Kentucky, whose defense is too good to just let you go up and down the field.

Who knows if Jarrett Guarantano is completely healthy or how much he’ll play, but whoever is under center needs to test the Niners downfield all day.

No major injuries

Again, with basically no depth, the rest of this season is going to be an all-hands-on-deck situation if the Vols are going to have any chance of going to the postseason. Technically, UT could make a bowl at 5-7, and this is actually a year the Vols would need to take that with so much youth. But hopefully, they can get to the magic six-win window.

Is it sad we’re hoping for six wins again? Yes, it is. But it does feel like those days are coming to an end under Pruitt. This year is what it is.

The Vols can’t afford to suffer any major injuries like one to a quarterback, Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Daniel Bituli, Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor or Nigel Warrior. They need to keep those dudes healthy at all costs and win this game.

Prediction: It’s going to be ugly, but Tennessee will win relatively easily. Vols 34-13

LOCKS

I continued to limp last week to a 3-4 record, falling to 27-29 ATS this year [which pretty much mirrors the pick-em league I’m in]. After two really good years of picking games, this season, it just hasn’t been there. We’ll try to get back on track this week. We need a good 6-1 or 5-2 week to surge ahead.

I’d like to promise you it will be this week. The good news is that I’m 8-1 ATS in picking the MACtion and other early-week games so far. Maybe that’s the sign of a turnaround. Or maybe it’s just setting me up for failure. I like so many games this week, and that scares me. Let’s get to the picks.

1. MTSU -13.5 over Western Kentucky: In the past few seasons, this has been a rivalry game. But the Hilltoppers are awful this season with just one win. MTSU isn’t the same high-powered offense it’s been in recent years, but the Raiders still have enough of it to cover.
2. Georgia -9 over Kentucky: The Wildcats are a very nice story, and everybody should be excited about watching this team at home in such a huge game with the SEC East on the line. But the Bulldogs are still the cream of the SEC East, and UK doesn’t have the offensive horses to hang.
3. Florida -6 over Missouri: I don’t understand this line at all, especially with the Gators at home coming off a frustrating better-than-it-looked loss against Georgia. They will take care of business against Mizzou.
4. Boston College -2.5 over Virginia Tech: Did anybody see this Hokies defense against the run vs. Georgia Tech? Now they have to go against A.J. Dillon? Yes, this game is in Blacksburg. No, it won’t matter.
5. USC -16.5 over Oregon State: With JT Daniels now getting to play against perhaps the worst Power 5 defense in the nation, expect the Trojans to get better in a hurry.
6. California – Washington State over 50: Never bet the under in a game with a Mike Leach-coached team. I feel like this should be a maxim, even with this decent Wazzu D.
7. West Virginia +2 over Texas: This game is in Austin, and it’s not going to be easy. But I like Will Grier against the struggling ‘Horns secondary.

Will Muschamp is not a good football coach.

There is empirical evidence supporting this. It was obvious at Florida, and even though there have been some flashes at South Carolina, we’re beginning to see it this year as the Steve Spurrier recruits fade away and Muschamp gets “his” players in Columbia. The Gamecocks are 3-3 and have underachieved this entire year.

Yet, Will Muschamp owns Tennessee.

That same evidence we spoke of is present here, too, given the fact the Vols have never beaten Muschamp and his smart-aleck attitude during his days as a head coach. It doesn’t matter how much trash he talks or how garbage his attitude is or how good or bad his teams are, they always one-up the Vols.

Can Jeremy Pruitt put an end to that? In fairness to UT, the Vols have been coached by Butch Jones and Derek Dooley during Muschamp’s era as a head football coach, so it isn’t like Bryant, Saban or Lombardi was leading them through the ‘T’, but that is no excuse for Muschamp holding this sort of ownership of the Vols.

Tennessee has to do something about that. The Vols probably aren’t as good as the Gamecocks this year, but they weren’t as good as Auburn, either, and won. It can happen, and a win this week breaks the curse and propels UT toward a probable bowl berth.

Yeah, it’s that big. Let’s take a look at the Locks & Keys.

KEYS

Make the right QB decision

There hasn’t been much this week on the health of Jarrett Guarantano. He’s been at practice, and he’s been going through reps, even if some of the reporters who’ve seen limited reps say he doesn’t show the same zip on his passes or look fully healthy after the blow he took last week against Alabama.

If that’s the case, Keller Chryst needs to start.

Pruitt is faced with a bit of a quarterback conundrum this week. Chryst looked strong in relief of JG, but JG had a career game against the Auburn Tigers the week before. The decision Pruitt makes on who is under center will have a direct impact on the game, and whoever he choses, the other guy needs to be ready, and the coaching staff doesn’t need to hesitate to go in the other direction.

This is the “real” season, and every decision matters. The guess here is JG will go, but if he isn’t himself, it’s time to try Chryst. The postseason may very well be on the line.

Play for Trey

Just devastating news that Trey Smith again is dealing with blood clot issues in his lungs. Not only does this mean his season is in jeopardy, but his football career is, too. If he continues to play, though, his life could be. That is paramount to get him healthy and to ensure he has the quality of life needed to be a productive citizen, a father, a husband, live a life. Those are the vital things.

Football is secondary.

But this is a football column, and we have to talk about how this impacts the Vols. Smith had struggled much of the season after a 6-month layoff, but you’re still talking about losing your most talented football player who started every game at left tackle this season. For an offensive line already struggling mightily, that’s going to be a huge puzzle piece to replace. Where do the Vols go from here?

One thing is certain: They need to rally behind this. The offensive line needs to play for its fallen brother, and the run game needs to start being able to find some lanes behind this rebuilt O-line. It’s not like they’re playing the Crimson Tide or AU Tigers this weekend. Carolina is 12th in the league in rush defense, so the Vols need to do some positives things on the ground.

Limit Bentley

The Gamecocks are hellbent on playing Jake Bentley for some reason, though it looks like Michael Scarnecchia is the quarterback who can move the ball vertically best. Tennessee needs to make them pay.

Bentley has been very wishy-washy this year, and he doesn’t need to all of a sudden re-find his form against the Vols. South Carolina has been turning the ball over too much this year, and Bentley has done his share to give the ball to the other team, which means the Vols need to turn back to their old opportunistic ways from the Auburn game.

Bentley is a talented, tough kid who can break out of this season-long slumber. Tennessee has to make sure that he doesn’t. If he plays the way he’s capable, UT isn’t beating South Carolina. That means Pruitt and Co. need to dial up creative blitzes, confuse him and pressure him into mistakes.

Take care of the football

This Tennessee team can’t give away extra possessions; it’s that simple.

If the Vols have two or more turnovers against South Carolina, they will not win the game. The Gamecocks aren’t great on offense, but UT has to win this game with its offense, and, more precisely, the passing game. That means JG or Chryst need to not throw interceptions, and Tennessee can’t put the ball on the ground.

This Tennessee team lives and dies by its ability to take care of the ball and to force the other team into mistakes. Both those things have to keep happening for 2018 version of UT to close the talent gap.

Don’t get run out of Williams-Brice early

Tennessee has been a better road team this year for whatever reason, and that needs to continue against a team that is coming off a bye week with a lot to prove after starting the season 3-3.

The Vols need to make South Carolina punt early, get up a score and take the crowd out of it. That didn’t happen, even in the win over Auburn, as UT has been a slow-starting squad all year. But that has burned UT much of the season. If the Vols are the aggressor in this one, it will really benefit Tennessee.

This could be one of those games where Tennessee stuns everybody again. But it isn’t going to happen if the Vols wait around until the second quarter to get cranking.

Prediction: South Carolina 27, Tennessee 23

LOCKS

Last week was a bit better, as we went 4-3 to regroup and rebound after the 1-6 Nightmare on Par Street prior to my vacation. On the bright side, I picked the Purdue upset, which would have been fantastic if, you know, I had the guts to put real money on it. Western Michigan easily covered over Central Michigan, Cal cruised over Oregon State, and Arkansas did the same against Tulsa.

On the poop-your-pants side, Wisconsin and Illinois stunned everybody and went two touchdowns over the 55-point total. Thought that one would go under easily. Washington State outright pounded Oregon, and North Texas lost outright to UAB.

For the year, I’m 24-25, and, yes, we’re going over .500 this week. The goal for the year is .600, and there is a long way to go to get back there. But it starts this week.

1. Purdue +2.5 over Michigan State: Several of the games this week fit the “letdown” mode, and, yes, it scares me that I’m picking a few of them. But the Boilermakers offense is too good. No, I don’t think they’re still going to be riding the Ohio State high. Jeff Brohm is a great coach, and this team has turned a corner. They’re going on the road and beating Sparty.
2. TCU and Kansas over 48.5: TCU’s defense hasn’t really stopped anybody this year, but now Kansas comes to town, and that’s a remedy for any D. The Jayhawks still will score three times, and the Horned Frogs won’t have an issue against KU. This one is going at least 5-7 points over.
3. Washington State +2.5 over Stanford: Here is another one of those potential letdown games after Wazzu won an emotional game over Oregon a week ago in Pullman with ESPN College GameDay present. Stanford is beyond capable of winning this game in Palo Alto, but I’m not a believer in Stanford’s offense. Give me the Leaches.
4. Tennessee +8 over South Carolina: I believe in Jeremy Pruitt. I wasn’t sure earlier this year, but I think the Vols are getting there. They are getting the most out of their talent, and I like UT to go on the road this week and at least keep it close, maybe pull out a win.
5. Texas -3.5 over Oklahoma State: I’m sweating this one, simply because I’m not sure the Longhorns are as good as their No. 6 ranking would lead you to believe. But the word is late this week that quarterback Sam Ehlinger is expected to play. If he does, the Horns roll.
6. Oregon -9.5 over Arizona: This is a battle of the teams that have let me down this year. Arizona, I was sold on early in the year, and boy oh boy, they let me down. Same with Oregon last week. But Justin Herbert is going to throw all over the Wildcats.
7. Washington -11 over California: Washington is too much for the Bears. They are going to win this game by 17 or more points.

 

Up until the minute Jarrett Guarantano left Saturday’s game with what originally was called a collarbone issue but wound up being bruised ribs, I would have told you the guy under center was the one who gave the Vols the best chance to win.

After watching Keller Chryst against Alabama and rewatching him again in a replay of the game, I’m not so sure.

And you know what, Vols fans? That is an excellent thing moving forward.

There’s no question you’re in one camp or the other when it comes to who should be Tennessee’s quarterback when the Vols travel to Columbia, South Carolina, next weekend for Saturday night’s all-important game against the Gamecocks that could determine how the rest of the season goes.

You know who’s camp I’m in? Neither. I’ve decided to spend the rest of the fall at Camp Whoever-helps-us-win.

I don’t see practice everyday, and I don’t know if Guarantano or Chryst gives Tennessee the best chance to do that. I don’t know if Alabama backed off a bit in coverage by the time the Stanford transfer replaced Guarantano, and I don’t know how Chryst would play a complete game against mere mortals.

But Chryst certainly had his exceptional moments against those crimson cyborgs on Saturday. That’s encouraging, and nothing else. It’s not worrisome. It’s not a reason to get on a soap box. It’s not a reason to start flinging darts in JG’s direction. It’s ONLY encouraging. You know why? Because now both guys have proven they can do good things against good teams, and it’s very possible Tennessee will need both of them before this season is over, especially considering just how bad this offensive line remains.

If you’re looking for positives in yet another Bama beat-down, this time a 58-21 loss that marked the record 12th-straight Crimson Tide victory in the Third Saturday in October, there aren’t that many. The best thing by far is that it’s over, and, barring the news on receiver Josh Palmer who went out with an injury, Tennessee may have survived. Guarantano is hurt, but is he injured? Coach Jeremy Pruitt didn’t sound terribly concerned Saturday night.

Pruitt didn’t sound worried. Didn’t explicitly say Guarantano would be back next week, but said he’d be back. I’ll be surprised if he misses any time. https://t.co/y3yovGSXFp

— David Ubben (@davidubben) October 21, 2018

Chryst came in, however, and more than did his job. He finished 9-of-15 for 164 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It wasn’t just that he posted decent numbers, either. It’s that he looked really good doing it. He utilized Jauan Jennings, who had his second strong game in a row, catching six balls for 102 yards; he threw an absolute dime over the middle to Tyler Byrd [HE EXISTS!] for a touchdown; and he kept Ty Chandler in the passing game, throwing him a scoring strike, too.

There was plenty of zip on his throws, and it’s simply something we haven’t seen from him. According to practice reports, the coaches hadn’t seen it much, either.

All of those things are positive, but the most important thing — especially with this offensive line — is Chryst recognized blitzes, moved away from pressure and made some plays. His pocket presence is a lot better than JG’s, even if the latter can advance the ball downfield with authority and make every throw.

Now, I’m not saying that you absolutely need to start Chryst next week. As a matter of fact, I think if Guarantano is ready to go and I was the coach, he would probably remain the starter until he proves he isn’t the guy. Tennessee doesn’t really need a quarterback controversy right now, especially before such a pivotal stretch of the season — the most pivotal stretch of the season.

But Chryst’s emergence and Saturday’s performance gives Tennessee options, right? That’s not a bad thing.

Is it really a controversy to have a competition? If you believe Pruitt, every player every week is evaluated, and his game reps mirror how well he performed in practice. He reportedly hasn’t done that with the quarterbacks because the offense needs to develop continuity with “The Man” who is going to lead the team. That’s been Guarantano, and other than taking some absolute shots because he doesn’t yet have the pocket vision, he’s done nothing to be benched.

As a matter of fact, he’s coming off his career game in the huge win at Auburn. Do you punish him for getting hurt against Alabama?

No. But you also have to realize that taking those kind of hits may make you a warrior, but they hurt your team. They cause turnovers, extra possessions for the opponent, and drive-killing sacks. Those are mistakes the Vols can’t afford with such a slim margin for error.

So, why not split first-team reps this week, just to see? Guarantano may not be able to go against South Carolina, anyway. We don’t know yet.

Some of you on Twitter have argued that you believe the coaches are not only doing what they think is best for now but adding weight to what’s best for the future, and that’s why Guarantano is getting the nod. I don’t agree with that at all. These coaches know how important selling marked improvement is to recruits, and if there’s anything we learned about Pruitt after Saturday’s comments, it’s that he still values recruiting above all else and knows he needs to recruit 25 players who do things his way because there are still people on this UT team who don’t. You don’t strive for the future to hurt the present. I believe they really believe JG is the man for the job.

Do they still? We’ll see.

It’s hard to fault what JG has done in games, even though offensive coordinator Tyson Helton has only let him loose a couple of times.

We all loved him last week, remember? This week, we all love Chryst.

It’s just vitally important to remember that both are Vols, and now we know that both are capable. If JG wants to keep his job, he may need to elevate his game, right? How can that be a bad thing? If you pull him against South Carolina, you should now have confidence in Chryst where, before, any of that would have been blind hope.

Tennessee lost a game on Saturday, but it found out that the offensive hopes don’t necessarily hinge of the health of Guarantano. That is a huge positive, because you know what?

The rest of this season — Every. Single. Game. — is winnable.

You heard that right. Though I would say the odds certainly are against the Vols to run the table (can you even fathom an eight-win season, especially with how we started??) there are no reasons why the Vols should be huge underdogs in any remaining game.

Will Missouri’s high-flying passing attack be a problem for Tennessee’s youthful secondary? Absolutely. Will Kentucky’s dynamic defense and Josh Allen wreak havoc on the Vols awful offensive line? Sure, it will. Is South Carolina a more talented team? Yeah, probably. Can Vanderbilt beat UT? Well, yeah, it has two years in a row, hasn’t it?

But are you scared of any of those teams? You shouldn’t be. Especially not now.

Don’t let Saturday’s slaughter do anything to make you feel worse about this season. What happened was what was always going to happen, and it’s happened to every team Alabama has played this year. The Tide are an NFL team single-handedly sucking the life out of college football. It is what it is.

Anything is possible for the Vols from here on — from 8-4 to 4-8 — and they’ve got two capable quarterbacks who can do good things with the football and lead this team on drives.

At this point, we have to trust the coaches to make the right decisions, and if they’re struggling within the framework of a game, the other needs to be ready to play. If they seize that opportunity, all the better, right?

Chryst seized his chance against the Tide and looked excellent doing it. Guarantano did the same a week before against Auburn.

Small sample sets, both. Neither have proved they’re elite, dynamic signal-callers capable of carrying this team on their shoulders. Both are proving they’re perfectly competent, and it’s going to be fun watching this growing, developing team play against some competition that is on the same plane as them right now.

Florida is, and the Vols turned it over six times in a lopsided loss. Auburn is, and Tennessee finally took advantage, made its own breaks and won a big game. Every other team is in that sack of potatoes, too.

It’s time for Tennessee to take care of business in the “real” season, which starts next week. It will be interesting to see how Pruitt, Helton and crew handle the developing quarterback situation. However they do, the dude out there will have the Power T on their helmet.

We should all be encouraged by what we’ve seen recently, because we will need the quarterback to make plays for us to win games, especially next week against a South Carolina team that is angry, will be playing at home and had an extra week to rest and prepare.

You say the goal should be 6-6? I don’t agree. Every game is winnable, so the goal should be 8-4. Pruitt and Co. need to do whatever it takes to get there, including opening up the quarterback competition and seeing what shakes out.

 

When I was younger, there were no games I looked forward to more than Alabama. Your really could throw out the records, and the streaks were even fun because you knew it could go either way any year.

Nick Saban has sucked the joy out of that. Well, him and Derek Dooley. And Butch Jones. And Mike Hamilton. And Dave Hart. And all the failures.

Now, after a fun week — (man, it was fun, wasn’t it?? Maybe it was more fun for me because of all the bragging rights over my Auburn buddies) — it’s time to go out and probably endure the biggest gut-shot of the season. It’s the week that Alabama fans invade Neyland Stadium, the best FBS team of the modern era probably has its way with our Vols and we have to sit there, take it, and then listen to those buffoons sing “Rammer Jammer” afterward.

Makes me sick just thinking of it.

But here’s the deal: Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols simply cannot let this game erase the momentum from the valiant Georgia showing and the resounding road upset at Auburn. The Crimson Tide is a different animal that has been destroying everything in its path. The Vols have to try to cover the four-touchdown spread, do some things they can build on and, most importantly, not get anybody hurt.

It sucks that those are the goals, but just being realistic, they are.

Could the Vols win this game? Absolutely, they could. Crazy things happen. They did in 1982. They did in 1990. There are many other examples.

Is it likely? Nah. If you think so, you’re drinking orange Kool-Aid and aren’t being very realistic about where these two programs are right now. Alabama under Saban is the most well-built, well-rounded, talented programs in college football history. This dynasty is even greater than Bear Bryant’s at Alabama. Until Saban leaves, it’s probably not changing.

Tennessee went 4-8 last year, don’t you remember? Don’t let last week fool you — this team is still a long ways away. But, also, don’t let this week fool you, either. We’re not going to be as far away as Alabama makes us look.

The Vols have to stay on schedule. They have to keep Jarrett Guarantano upright, get Jonathan Kongbo’s replacements (like DeAndre Johnson and Jordan Allen) some valuable repetitions and not lose anybody else of any value. Games against South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt are going to determine the postseason. Tennessee needs a split to get one.

They can’t lose those games this week. That is very important. Tennessee needs to fight, it doesn’t need to give up, and it needs to find some building blocks. But the most important thing is don’t lose more than once against Alabama, and don’t lose what you’ve built. There is a lot of season left to be played.

Now, if there was a chance, let’s take a look at what must happen.

KEYS

Protect JG

If the Vols are going to shock the college football world and upset Alabama, they have to do that by keeping Jarrett Guarantano’s jersey clean. This offensive line did some positive things a week ago against Auburn, and you’re going to be hard-pressed to find a signal-caller tougher than JG.

But Alabama is going to have a bunch of manimals coming after him, blitzing, breathing down his neck, trying to crush his soul and his will. It is vitally important Tennessee’s offensive front plays with more pride than it has so far this season and that Tyson Helton finds some ways to help his quarterback get the ball out quickly.

UT needs to run some play-action to keep the Tide honest and keep the pressure off. The Vols need to hit them with some draws up the middle, and that means they need to win some one-on-one battles in the trenches. If those things happen, UT could put up some points against an Alabama defense that is very good but nothing like it has been in recent years.

Biguns

While Helton needs to dial up some quick strikes to help JG get the ball out of his hands, he also needs some time to get the ball downfield.

Tennessee won the game against Auburn last week because Guarantano threw the ball up and let Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway and Josh Palmer beat the AU cornerbacks on 50-50 balls. Alabama’s DBs are better than its counterparts on the Plains, but again, this secondary isn’t as dominant as it has been.

Do the Vols have an advantage with their wide receivers? That’s still debatable because of all the talent Saban has recruited, but Tennessee has talent, too. JG has to take some shots downfield, and the Vols have to take advantage of man coverage and win those battles with some big gains. Then, they’ve got to convert those big plays into touchdowns.

Coming of age

Last week was a breakout party for freshman cornerback Bryce Thompson, who had a huge interception and a pass deflection in the end zone against Auburn that may have been the game’s two biggest plays.

He’s really emerging into a young star before our eyes. And his fellow first-year defensive back Alontae Taylor has enjoyed flashes of brilliance, too.

Though Baylen Buchanan isn’t the kind of defensive back you want in man coverage, he’s doing better playing the nickelback position.

They’re all going to be tested this week like they never have before. UA quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn’t a guarantee to play, but he probably will. If he does, the Vols must face the Heisman Trophy frontrunner who throws one of the prettiest deep balls of any collegiate quarterback in recent memory. Alabama has nearly patented the first-drive long scoring pass with guys like Jerry Jeudy routinely on the other end.

The Tide are going to go long, and they are going to convert more often than not.

Take this into consideration: There hasn’t been a single game this year where Alabama failed to score a touchdown on its opening drive.

This will be the best wide receiving corps the Vols’ young secondary faces all year, and they’ve got to minimize the huge gainers and make their share of plays. UT has a lot of talent and even more inexperience in the secondary. They need their share of wins this week. This is where the game will be won or lost.

Uncle mo

We say it a lot, but we mean it a lot, too: Tennessee will have a rowdy crowd at Neyland on Saturday, and the Vols must keep them in it. If not, Alabama’s fans (they’ll travel plenty, too) will take over and so will its team.

The last time UT was at home, Florida gutted the crowd early and kept pushing. We never had a chance to stay in the game as the Vols killed themselves. If that happens against UA, the Vols will lose by 70.

Uh, that’s not an exaggeration.

Tennessee needs some big early plays to get the players believing, get the fans believing and stay in it till late. That’s a huge ask, but it needs to happen if UT has any chance.

Mistake-free

Last week, Tennessee not only made big defensive plays, it played spotless, mistake-free football. Penalties were minimal, and there were zero turnovers.

Giving up the ball and extra possessions against Alabama lead to bunches of Tide points. This is the best Bama offense of the Saban era, and you must keep it off the field. I want to see Tennessee aggressive, and when you play like that against great teams, you can get burned. That doesn’t mean it should change anything about the approach. Guarantano needs to throw the ball around and whatever happens, happens.

But if what happens are interceptions, the Vols are in trouble. They’ve got to make big plays and keep UA from making big plays. They have to make their own breaks and can’t give ‘Bama anything.

They do not need help.

***

All that said, I have a hard time believing the Vols win or even cover the spread. There is just too much talent on Alabama’s side of the ball, and UT doesn’t have the horses to hang.

My fear is the Vols get banged-up and it keeps them from beating South Carolina the next week in a very winnable game. They’ve got to play aggressive, but they’ve got to be smart and get a little lucky, too.

You’re not going to like the prediction, but given my record ATS this year, it should make you feel better about the game.

Prediction:  Alabama 48, Tennessee 17

LOCKS

Well, we took a vacation last week. It certainly wasn’t because of all the money we’ve been making betting on college football, that’s for sure. So far this season, it’s been one step forward, two steps back.

Last week, we were off, but the week before, it was more like 10 steps back. We went 1-6 which takes us to 20-22 so far this season. That’s embarrassing. As a matter of fact, it’s the worst I’ve ever been in this column. That is going to change. I’m not going to predict undefeated this week because every time I do that, I suck.

But it’s gonna be a winning record, guaranteed. We’re going to get back to .500 this week and vow to improve afterward. It’s time, as Lane Kiffin would say.

1. Illinois vs. Wisconsin under 55: What in the world happened to the Badgers this year? They’re not anywhere near as good as I thought they’d be, and they’ll take out some aggression this week against a bad Illini team. But Illinois can’t score enough for this over to hit.
2. Arkansas -5.5 over Tulsa: I don’t see the Hogs losing to Colorado State, North Texas AND Tulsa in the same season. I see Chad Morris’ team improving each week, and this is my favorite pick of the week.
3. California -6.5 over Oregon State: Oh man, the Beavers are bad. Yes, Justin Wilcox’s team is reeling, but it isn’t far removed from playing decent football. This line is far too low even if it is in Corvallis.
4. Oregon +1.5 over Washington State: I love the Ducks. They’ve been good to me this year, and they’re a well-coached, disciplined team that can win games many different ways. I like them to cover this way-too-low line against the Fighting Leaches.
5. North Texas -0.5 over UAB: The Mean Green have come back down to earth a little, but I still love Mason Fine and they look back on track after a 30-7 win over Southern Miss. They’ll cover this scant line easily in a defensive battle. Fine will make enough plays.
6. Purdue +14 over Ohio State: This was my Bleacher Report upset of the week. Not only do I think the Boilermakers are going to win, I’m going to follow up this bet by laying on the money line as well. I’m a Brohm believer, baby! I also think it’s a matter of time before the Buckeyes have their midseason “WTH” game.
7. Western Michigan -4.5 over Central Michigan: This has trap game written all over it, and the line is just dangling out there as too good to be true. Still, I’m falling for it. I think the Chippewas are awful and the Broncos aren’t. This is a solid cover.