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  • Two years ago Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37, part of a sterling November performance for Josh Dobbs and the Vol offense. Tennessee led the nation in yards per play that month (stats via SportSource Analytics), […]

  • It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.
    Let’sa […]

  • It’s time to see if coach Jeremy Pruitt can keep this ball rolling.

    We’ve seen that the first-year Tennessee coach can recruit, and we’ve seen that he can develop. But can he get his Vols to pull off their […]

    • Mizzou COULD be 8-2, but they could also be 4-6 (late FG to beat Purdue, some classic Vandy moments including an incomplete pass in the end zone as time expired to win last week).

      That said, I think Mizzou is the better team. I really want to believe the Vols can hang, but I’m not sure I do.

  • The statistical comps for this Saturday’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers are all over the place. Part of the noise is likely due to Tennessee’s accelerated improvement curve under […]

    • My gut tells me we are going to see a game similar to West Virginia, but with a much improved Tennessee Team on the defensive side. I am guessing it will be Vols 31, Tigers 24. Hoping we can get them so the Vandy game isn’t a “make or break” for a bowl trip. Go Vols!!

    • Does SPM take into account strength of schedule/opponent?

      I think that may be your problem. Against bottom feeders they’ve put up obscene numbers but against real competition they’ve had trouble figuring out what they want to do.

      If there is one word to describe this Mizzou team it’s clearly going to be ‘inconsistent’.

      • It sort of has strength of schedule built in because it’s not ranking teams or figuring out how good they are, per se. They just see how they’ve done against the teams most similar to the one they’re playing. But it does not account for the strength of schedule of the comps, no.

        • I mean, that would make things many order of magnitude more complex while it’s actually been a really solid system thus far.

          Who knows, perhaps Mizzou rolls out there and beats us by 4 TDs and we’re all left thinking it’s the best system ever on Sunday.

    • And, FWIW… I think this is either our coming out party with multiple turnovers and short fields resulting in a win of ~42-14 or Mizzou shows up and we struggle to keep up with something like 49-28 Mizzou.

      • I suppose I should get into specifics with such wide variance on my prediction.

        I truly believe Dooley is in the wrong profession. The man would be an excellent lawyer, jurist or politician with a great and broad set of abilities akin to a reinassance man. But he simply questions his own decisions too much and fails to filter out the noise in the same way people like Saban, Cutcliffe and Pruitt do. He changes his entire offensive scheme based on one or two bad plays. One reason I REALLY like Helton is because he builds his offensive scheme and plan around the entire game. He understands enough about his own team’s defense and can see when a good playcall is snuffed out by things likenfailures in execution to construct an appropriate plan and understand when to continue doing what he is doing.

        I’ve watched a lot of Mizzou film this week and Dooley’s offenses fail to find rhythm because he wildly changes his goals and vision from drive to drive. Backs get pulled too soon or his offense gives up a single sack on an otherwise solid drive through the air so on the next he runs on 1st and 2nd down before making a desperation call on 3rd down. He thinks about plays while Helton thinks about drives and games.

        So if Mizzou’s offense gets on track early and Dooley stays confident in his playcalling things could become very difficult for us. However, if we cause headaches early he will get into his own head and begin to waste entire drives through his own playcalls.

        So I see either their offense living up to it’s potential and we have trouble keeping up, or they slowly implode until the game gets out of hand in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter.

    • I love the summary of Vegas, S&P+, FPI, and your metrics. Hopefully, we get the same thing (KenPom, etc) for basketball as this provides great perspective on how non-fans think we’ll do in a game.

  • There’s not a lot going on prior to Saturday, so if you need to get some stuff done, use your Thursday and Friday well.
    Gameday

     

    The noon slate features a couple of past Vols’ opponents in Florida and […]

  • It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings.
    Offense

    Defense

    Special Teams

    Turnovers and Penalties
    

     

    • Drew replied 1 day ago

      I absolutely love seeing these each week, but on my browser I can’t see anything after the GA game. The picture cuts off, and it doesn’t scroll or anything.

  • The biggest recruiting trend so far in the Jeremy Pruitt era at Tennessee is the Vols getting bigger and stronger across the board at every position. If there’s another trend that is continuing on Rocky Top, it’s […]

  • Dwayne became a registered member 3 days, 7 hours ago

  • Two big truths from Tennessee’s last outing against Louisiana: one, “Does this team have anyone who can guard Grant Williams?” is still the first question to ask. When the answer is no, you get Friday’s […]

    • Some premium MACtion is getting in the way of the broadcast here.

    • Having to watch the Spanish broadcast cause I can’t get ESPNNEWS. Too bad I don’t understand Spanish.

    • I’m not quite sure how to feel about last night.

      On the one hand, the Vols were atrocious on offense, missed a bunch of FTs, and still won by 13.

      On the other, I think we saw some of the limitations of the team with only one true guard (I know they’re calling Bowden a guard, but he’s really more of a wing). Without Turner to stretch the defense, the lane was super clogged and it made it hard both to get Grant going in the post and to have the drive/cut lanes that the offense thrives on.

      Glad they’ve got a week to heal up, work out some of the kinks, and hopefully get Turner ready to go.

  • Coming into the Kentucky game, a Tennessee program that was 4-5 in Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s inaugural season had the #2 recruiting class in the SEC East and 15th nationally, with ample room to move up and needs a […]

  • My new expected win total:

    This week: 6.1
    Last week: 5.3
    After Week 9: 5.55
    After Week 8: 6.0
    After Week 7: 6.3
    After Week 6: 5.0
    After Week 5: 4.9
    After Week 4: 4.55
    After Week 3: […]

    • 6.1 up slightly with MO = 50%, Vandy = 60%… got us bowling, but it all depends on which Vol Team shows up down the stretch and if the scheme is a good match. I am betting on the Vols taking at least one and hoping for both!! Go Vols!!

    • I came to 5.9 this week. I’m hopeful but still wary. I want to see the kind of play like Saturday 2 weeks in a row. If they do that, we will he bowl eligible after this week and looking for a winning record against Vandy. I feel like we have yet to see the same team for consecutive games yet. They have been very up and down. But the O-line and defense give me hope that 7-5 is more than possible. I feel like a chemically unbalanced girlfriend. One minute I’m up the next I’m down.

    • I’m at 6.05. I’ve still got Mizzou at 45% because I don’t like the match-up. But the real question with both of these games is how confident are we the team that showed up on Saturday will show up again the next two weeks? Because if that happens, we handle Vandy. I’ve got that one at 60%, which I think is as high as I’ve had it since preseason.

    • 5.83 here.

      Mizzou just feels like a supremely bad matchup, so I’ve got them at 33%.

      I’ve obviously watched more Vandy than most folks around here…their offense can be legit, it’s the defense that is a bit sketchy. They’re not as explosive as Mizzou, but I feel a bit like that one can be a shootout, too, and I’m not sure UT is designed to win those. 50%.

    • 5.90 – 30% Mizzou (bad matchup); 60% Vandy. Love that we are playing our best football at the end of the season and have progressed each game (except Charlotte). I’d love to bowl and get the 15 practices. Would make a huge difference into 2019.

    • 6.2

      I bumped Mizzou a hair higher because of their bad passing defense.

    • Pre-season: 5.12
      Post-WVU: 4.98
      Post-ETSU: 4.84
      Post-UTEP: 4.65
      Post-Florida: 4.01
      Post-Georgia: 4.20
      Post-bye: 4.63
      Post-Auburn: 5.58
      Post-Alabama: 5.48
      Post-South Carolina: 5.08
      Post-Charlotte: 5.00
      Now: 6.00

      My remaining individual game confidence levels are now Mizzou 40 (up from 30), and Vandy 60.

      How I have picked each UT game in the Pick ‘Em contest versus actual results:

      West Virginia 40, Tennessee 14 (picked WVU for 14 points)
      Tennessee 59, ETSU 3 (picked Tennessee for 20)
      Tennessee 24, UTEP 0 (picked Tennessee for 18, two games canceled for weather)
      Florida 47, Tennessee 21 (picked Florida for 7)
      Georgia 38, Tennessee 12 (picked Georgia for 20)
      Tennessee 30, Auburn 24 (picked Auburn for 18)
      Alabama 58, Tennessee 21 (picked Alabama for 20)
      South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24 (picked South Carolina for 15)
      Tennessee 13, Charlotte 3 (picked Tennessee for 20)
      Tennessee 24, Kentucky 7 (picked Kentucky for 8)

    • I’m not convinced that the Mizzou matchup is as bad as everyone seems to believe.

      Yes, on the surface it appears we’ll have difficulty keeping up with a balanced and explosive offense but the numbers look a little different on a deeper dive.

      Mizzou is mediocre against the pass according to some of the same deeper metrics that showed chinks in Kentucky’s armor. That’s not to say that they couldn’t just show up and have a day where everyone is in a rhythm, but there is an underlying inconsistency in everything they do. Frankly, I think Dooley has turned what should be a great offense into one that is simply good.

      Their big offensive issue is a lack of consistency. This is a team that puts the ball on the ground ~1.5 times per game and throws a pick nearly once a game. Drew Lock is a very good QB, but he’s getting fewer YPA than Guarantano and is less efficient in every phase despite having far more time to throw. One reason I blame Dooley is that he’s consistently made his least explosive WRs primary targets. Emmanuel Hall is averaging nearly double the YPG as any other pass catcher while getting a hair over 10% of the targets. When your #4 WR is getting 21ypc while your #1 is at 10.8ypc, something stinks.

      The run game is what worries me here… 286 vs. SC, 221 vs. UF and 253 vs. Vandy gives me pause. If Mizzou wins in Knoxville it’s because they were able to run the ball effectively. But there is also the 84 yard game vs. Kentucky. So who really knows? What little I do know says that we’ll have the best scheme possible to slow down the run, it just needs to be executed by the eleven on the field.

      I also question the ability of their DBs to cover downfield, seems like a place we’ll have opportunities on Saturday afternoon. Purdue had 572 through the air against them so there will be opportunities.

      FWIW, I also think this is the week Notre Dame loses. Syracuse is dangerous, it’s on the road and I’m not sure they’re mentally ready to be heavy road favorites against a team that dangerous.

  • Well, the Big Blue Nation didn’t have the most productive week, but the Big Blue Shells had their way, blowing up two leaders and making way for Will Shelton to take the lead in the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing […]

  • Congratulations to vols95, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 18-2 and 203 confidence points. He or she gets a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom t […]

    • Well I am really starting to hate that week where I was unable to make any picks. After winning two weeks this season I might have had a shot for the year. I know this is not Vegas, but it could still feel good. Plus, I haven’t won this in (insert pretty much any exponent here) the time I have been guessing in previous years. However, if we can somehow manage to figure out consistency and get to 7-5 I really do not care where I finish.

  • Tennessee made the third-biggest move of the week in S&P+, up a dozen spots from 82nd to 70th overall (shout out to Minnesota’s 41-10 beat down of Purdue, leaping 23 spots). The bad news: Missouri is a Top 25 team […]

    • Yeah, I don’t understand the people who are clamoring for Jarrett to be benched in favor of Chryst. He’s accurate, tough, and he doesn’t seem to make bad decisions. Poor guy has had to endure terrible offensive line play. I’d love to see how he fares with competent protection.

      • If/when everyone on this offense comes back next year, we’ll talk about this approximately one million times in the off-season. If he can do this while getting hit every other play, what can he do when he’s got more time to breathe (and a more consistent running game)…

  • We’re just going to get this out of the way up front: Regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Jeremy Pruitt is the real deal.

    Tennessee finally has a football coach who eats, breathes, and sleeps […]

    • Wow… looking forward to next week… great game plan, solid coaching and good execution… all = a recipe for success. Go Vols!!

  • Tennessee used three turnovers and an unreal third-and-long performance to beat Auburn. And despite a 21-9 third quarter lead, the right team won in Columbia two weeks ago with the Gamecocks dominant in their […]

  • It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 4-5 (1-4) Tennessee Vols hosting the 7-2 (5-2) and 11th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats on the SEC Network. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols […]

    • wooooooo!!!! That sweet smell of victory!

      2 wins over ranked teams this year is not what I expected to see before the season.

      And 1 win away from bowl eligibility with 2 games to play. Both are winnable games too. This gonna be an exciting ending. Fingers crossed for continued greatness and improvement this season!

      GO BIG ORANGE!

  • It’s a progressive opening run for Tennessee: after a D-II blowout win, the Vols will be tested up the ladder by Louisiana tonight (120th in KenPom), Georgia Tech (90th) on Tuesday, then Louisville (66th) in the […]

  • It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.
    Let’sa […]

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 4-5 10 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

    • Scott replied 1 week ago

      Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 6 or more 15 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

      Gotta do better this week. Don’t think I can maintain my lead with another 0 for 3 showing!

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Kentuckys rushing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 4-5 10 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

    • Kentucky, 1-3, running

    • KY Rushing; 4-5; passing

    • HT replied 1 week ago

      I always forget about this thing, which is probably for the better as I don’t really understand the scoring system at all. Anyway….

      Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 6 or more 15 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A running play 10 points

    • UT pass, 1-3, passing

    • Harley replied 1 week ago

      1) Vols passing yards
      2) 1-3 Josh Allen sacks/TFL
      3) 1st UT TD = pass play

      Go Vols!

    • Kentuckys rushing yards 10 points, 1-3 10 points, A passing play 10 points.

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 1-3 10 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Kentuckys rushing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 6 or more 15 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

      Where is the option for “the Vols don’t score a touchdown 🙁 ” ?

      I wouldn’t have picked it anyway, but, you know… 😉

    • I missed last week’s edition 🙁 work is so overrated, especially with guessing games to play!

      TN Passing, 1-3, Passing

    • Vols Passing

      4-5

      Passing Play

  • You’d be right to be a Tennessee fan and be concerned that the Vols are hosting a top-15 program in a must-win situation in order to make it to the postseason [at least, with a traditional 6-6 record…]

    Yet, […]

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