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Vols defense vs. Gators offense: first to find itself wins

Kyle Phillips and Colton Jumper

 

We’ve spent a good couple of weeks now evaluating Team 121, and most of our angst has been in the form of fretting over the various warts of the Vols’ defense. We probably won’t know for a few weeks still whether the run defense actually hasn’t improved from last season or whether the early season performance can indeed be chalked up entirely to the triple option. But somehow, numbers that would normally be alarming headed into a rivalry game with Florida don’t seem so frightening this time around.

Because Florida’s got their own problems.

Florida Gators Offense

Statistic National Rank Conference Rank Value
Passes Had Intercepted (127 ranked) 1 1 0
4th Down Conversion Pct (70 ranked) 48 6 0.5
Passing Yards per Completion (126 ranked) 54 7 12.93
Passing Offense (126 ranked) 94 9 181
Completion Percentage (126 ranked) 97 13 0.538
Team Passing Efficiency (126 ranked) 100 13 112.32
Scoring Offense (125 ranked) 104 14 17
Tackles for Loss Allowed (125 ranked) 117 14 11
Red Zone Offense (119 ranked) 119 14 0
3rd Down Conversion Pct (126 ranked) 122 14 0.154
Sacks Allowed (127 ranked) 123 13 6
Total Offense (127 ranked) 123 14 192
First Downs Offense (127 ranked) 124 14 9
Rushing Offense (127 ranked) 127 14 11

 

Observations. When I first loaded this up, I was looking at the most current stats, and they showed Florida’s offense as the absolute worst FBS team in the nation in four categories and in the bottom four in three more. I knew they’d been bad that first week, but had they actually been the absolute worst? Please tell me that it’s so.

It was only then that it dawned on me that the rankings compare teams with one game (Florida, for instance, who had to cancel their game last week) to teams with two, and that those numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of how the team really compares to others.

So, I re-did everything from scratch looking just at the first full week’s stats.

Guess what? Florida’s offense is actually terrible. Maybe not the worst, but still rotten poultry rancid bad.

Bottom three in rushing offense. Bottom eight on first down and third down, as well as in sacks allowed and total offense. Not much better in the red zone or at allowing tackles for loss. Still in double digits in scoring and passing efficiency. Barely out of the gutter in completion percentage and passing yards.

They haven’t yet thrown an interception, so if you’re giving participation trophies, that’s what you tell the engraver.

Yes, all of this could change against Tennessee, especially with the Vols’ defense looking similarly inept in its first game. But, goodness, Florida’s offense looked woeful against Michigan.

Florida Gators Defense

Statistic National Rank Conference Rank Value
Defensive TDs (1 ranked) 1 1 2
Team Sacks (72 ranked) 8 2 5
Passes Intercepted (29 ranked) 9 1 2
Team Tackles for Loss (125 ranked) 9 3 11
Red Zone Defense (76 ranked) 54 7 0.75
First Downs Defense (127 ranked) 55 8 19
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense (127 ranked) 59 9 0.333
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (127 ranked) 62 8 113.89
Passing Yards Allowed (127 ranked) 69 10 218
Total Defense (127 ranked) 87 10 433
Scoring Defense (127 ranked) 93 11 33
Rushing Defense (127 ranked) 96 13 215
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense (100 ranked) 100 14 1

 

Observations. Much of this was actually surprising to me. Florida has accomplished what it has the past couple of seasons on the strength of its defense, and everyone knows that it was the defense that scored 14 of the team’s 17 points in the season opener. So, I expected to see some good numbers here.

There are, indeed, some good numbers. There’s the #1-ranking in defensive touchdowns you expected, and there’s the interceptions to go with it. There’s also the behind-the-line havoc stats in sacks and TFLs, which will provide a major challenge to Tennessee’s offensive line Saturday.

But after that, the Gators defense don’t look up to its usual standards, at least based on its first game stats. Rushing defense, in particular, looks suspect, which should keep Tennessee running back John Kelly’s smile on full power this week.

Basically, it looks like somebody’s scoring when the Gators are on defense. It might be you, but it might be them. Exciting!

Florida Gators Special Teams

Statistic National Rank Conference Rank Value
Blocked Kicks Allowed (125 ranked) 1 1 0
Blocked Punts (1 ranked) 1 1 1
Blocked Punts Allowed (127 ranked) 1 1 0
Kickoff Return Defense (127 ranked) 1 1 0
Blocked Kicks (5 ranked) 5 2 1
Net Punting (125 ranked) 17 4 44.67
Kickoff Returns (116 ranked) 80 12 17.75
Punt Returns (127 ranked) 90 9 0
Punt Return Defense (127 ranked) 95 13 8

 

Observations. Special teams stats are especially wonky early in the season, so don’t make too much of any of this. The main takeaway here, I think, is that they had four touchbacks on four kickoffs, so one of the Vols’ advantages (the kickoff return team) is probably already gone.

Florida Gators Turnovers and Penalties

Statistic National Rank Conference Rank Value
Turnovers Gained (68 ranked) 31 4 2
Fewest Penalties (127 ranked) 39 4 5
Fewest Penalties Per Game (126 ranked) 39 4 5
Fewest Penalty Yards (127 ranked) 47 6 45
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game (126 ranked) 47 6 45
Turnover Margin (127 ranked) 83 11 -1
Turnovers Lost (127 ranked) 99 13 3
Fumbles Lost (114 ranked) 114 14 3
Fumbles Recovered (22 ranked)

 

Observations. With two pick sixes, you’d expect to see better numbers in overall turnovers, but no. They’re also not especially disciplined, as measured by penalties. But again, it’s one game’s worth of stats.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Offense

Statistic Player National Rank Conference Rank Value
Completion Percentage (124 ranked) Malik Zaire 105 13 0.529
Completions Per Game (98 ranked)
Passing Efficiency (124 ranked) Malik Zaire 107 13 105.3
Passing TDs (24 ranked)
Passing Yards (130 ranked)
Passing Yards Per Game (130 ranked) Malik Zaire 121 13 106
Passing Yards per Completion (124 ranked) Malik Zaire 69 9 11.78
Points Responsible For (198 ranked)
Points Responsible For Per Game (189 ranked)
Receiving TDs (20 ranked)
Receiving Yards (199 ranked)
Receiving Yards Per Game (200 ranked) Josh Hammond 86 6 71
Tyrie Cleveland 152 14 56
Receptions Per Game (185 ranked) Tyrie Cleveland 146 10 4
Rush Yards Per Carry (176 ranked)
Rushing TDs (15 ranked)
Rushing Yards (198 ranked)
Rushing Yards Per Game (199 ranked)
Scoring (147 ranked) Duke Dawson 147 21 6
CJ Henderson 147 21 6
Total Offense (200 ranked) Feleipe Franks 187 20 82
Total Points Scored (141 ranked)
Total Touchdowns (74 ranked)
Yards per Pass Attempt (124 ranked) Malik Zaire 97 11 6.24
Yards per Reception (200 ranked) Josh Hammond 31 6 23.67
Tyrie Cleveland 156 16 14
Kadarius Toney 169 17 13.5

 

Observations. As you’d expect, there’s nothing too frightening here, except the appearance of two defensive players on the list of offensive players to watch. It appears that Malik Zaire was maybe a tad bit more efficient than Feleipe Franks, but I wouldn’t conclude that that means he’ll play more than Franks on Saturday.

Note the glaring absence of any running back on that list at all. If there are any go-to guys in the passing game, they appear to be sophomore wide receivers Josh Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland. Combined, they had seven receptions for 127 yards against Michigan.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Defense

Statistic Player National Rank Conference Rank Value
Interceptions Per Game (32 ranked) Duke Dawson 3 1 1
CJ Henderson 3 1 1
Passes Defended (34 ranked)
Sacks (109 ranked) Jordan Sherit 2 1 2
Taven Bryan 24 5 1
Cece Jefferson 24 5 1
Jachai Polite 24 5 1
Solo Tackles (98 ranked) Nick Washington 18 2 7
David Reese 34 4 6
Chauncey Gardiner 98 9 5
Jachai Polite 98 9 5
Jordan Sherit 98 9 5
Tackles For Loss (60 ranked) Cece Jefferson 5 1 2.5
Chauncey Gardiner 19 4 2
Jachai Polite 19 4 2
Jordan Sherit 19 4 2
Total Interceptions (21 ranked) Duke Dawson 21 2 1
CJ Henderson 21 2 1
Total Tackles (141 ranked) David Reese 15 2 11
Nick Washington 69 10 9

 

Observations. The defensive guys are the ones to watch out for as potential game-changers Saturday. Defensive backs Duke Dawson and CJ Henderson are the guys who had pick sixes against the Wolverines, and defensive lineman Jordan Sherit had two sacks. DB Nick Washington led the team in tackles with nine. If you want to conclude something about the linebackers based on that stat, feel free.

Florida Gators Players to Watch – Special Teams

Statistic Player National Rank Conference Rank Value
All Purpose (198 ranked) Tyrie Cleveland 131 15 101
Blocked Kicks (1 ranked)
Combined Kick Returns (197 ranked) Tyrie Cleveland 145 17 41
Field Goal Percentage (96 ranked) Eddy Pineiro 72 8 0.5
Field Goals Per Game (108 ranked) Eddy Pineiro 48 8 1
Kickoff Return TDs (5 ranked)
Kickoff Returns (97 ranked) Tyrie Cleveland 63 7 20.5

 

Observations. Kicker Eddy Pineiro hit only one of two field goal attempts in the first game.

Conclusion and prediction

As we discussed on our podcast last night, the key to this game is going to be which of Florida’s offense and Tennessee’s defense finds itself first and best. Apart from that, the Vols should lean on John Kelly running angry and hope the offensive line can hold its own against Florida’s defensive line. Be careful in the passing game, as Florida’s DBs are ball hawks, but don’t be too careful, as there are opportunities in the passing game as well.

The lines and the computer models all have Florida in this one, and I usually trust those things. But I just don’t understand either of them on this one, and I’m going with the Vols not just to cover but to win outright, 24-17.