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Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 3

Joel Hollingsworth
Jarrett Guarantano

As I said after the game, the Vols weren’t nearly as bad as they were sloppy against UTEP on Saturday. On one hand, a 24-point win over a team that is really struggling doesn’t instill a lot of confidence going forward, but on the other, it’s easier to clean up a mess than it is to actually get better, and overall, I didn’t think the team was as bad as Pruitt made them sound after the game. If the turnovers and penalties weren’t uncharacteristic of the team so far this season, it would be a different story, but they were as good the first two games in those categories as they were bad the third. So, on balance, I don’t really feel much different about the team after this weekend.

West Virginia’s game against NC State was canceled due to the hurricane, so we don’t have any additional data about how good they might be. ETSU did win their game, and the Bucs are now 2-1. But none of that changes Tennessee’s resume much, either.

It’s with most of the Vols’ future opponents that we begin to see a bit of gloom on the horizon. Fortunately, for Tennessee, it’s next opponent — Florida — might be an exception. The Gators’ resume so far includes a beatdown of an inferior opponent in Charleston Southern, a solid win over a struggling non-Power 5 conference opponent in Colorado State, and a loss to what is probably a good team in Kentucky. Their loss to Kentucky looks worse than Tennessee’s loss to West Virginia, but their win over Colorado State looks better than the Vols’ win over UTEP. Let’s call it a toss-up at this point.

Missouri, too, needed a last-second field goal to beat a struggling Purdue squad, and although Charlotte won its game this week, they’re still squarely in the almost certain win category.

The rest of Tennessee’s opponents, though, look like more trouble after this week. The teams that looked unbeatable last week still look so this week. Georgia rolled, Auburn lost by a single point to LSU, a top 15 team, and Alabama looks like the best team in the history of college football.

In rolling against Murray State, Kentucky did nothing to ease fears that its win over Florida said more about the Gators than it did about the ‘Cats. And Vanderbilt was a real threat to No. 8 Notre Dame in South Bend right up until the very end of the game.

All of that said, I don’t feel any better or worse about the Vols this week, but I do feel worse about several future opponents.

My new expected win total after Week 2 is 5.5. I have Georgia and Alabama at 10%, Auburn at 15%, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri at 40%, Florida and Vanderbilt as toss-ups, and Charlotte at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

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Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 2nd in Big 12

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 2-1 (1-0), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-3 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – West

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – East

As difficult as Tennessee’s upcoming slate is, the Gators’ is nothing to smirk at, either. They could go off the rails just as easily as the Vols.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – East

We’ll no more about Georgia after this week’s game against Missouri. I don’t think the Tigers will be much of a threat, and if the Bulldogs beat them like they did South Carolina, there’s little hope for anyone in the East.

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 2-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – West

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – East

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-1 (1-0), 1st in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – East

This weekend’s game against No. 16 Mississippi State will be telling.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-0 (0-0), 3rd in SEC – East

Again, how Missouri does against Georgia this week will give us some meaningful data for a projection against Tennessee.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in SEC – East

 

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