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Tennessee’s season-ending forecast: two of three will be tough

Joel Hollingsworth
Will McBride

With three games to go, the Vols are hoping to win out but may be looking at a rough finish instead.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Southern Miss

The Vols got a much-needed win against the Golden Eagles, but a win over a 5-4 Conference USA team doesn’t provide much boost in expectations the rest of the way. The defense is finding itself, and the offense got over its allergy to the end zone this week, but they are THIN on that side of the ball. For now, any change in expectations for the last three games will have to come, if at all, from the opponents.

The Vols’ future opponents

11/11/17: Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri, which had lost five of its first six games, has now won its last three, including a jack-hammering of the Florida Gators. We’ll obviously take a closer look at these guys all this upcoming week, but they look like they could be a real problem for the Vols this weekend. I’d had the game at 50/50 for the past several weeks, but I’m putting it at 40% now.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
70 65 70 70 70 50 50 50 50 50 40

11/18/17: LSU (6-3, 3-2 SEC, #19)

Expectations for a Vols win: LSU actually outgained Alabama 306-299, but just couldn’t get points on the board. This one’s tough, but we knew it was going to be tough, so I’m keeping it at 25%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
25 25 25 45 45 50 50 30 25 25 25

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (4-5, 0-5 SEC, NR)

Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt milked that Kansas State win for everything it was worth, but then went on a five-game losing streak against a gauntlet of a schedule. The win against WKU this weekend confirms that they’re still a threat to a struggling Tennessee team. Keeping this a 50/50 game.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
72 72 65 55 55 50 50 50 50 50 50

All of that puts me at 5.15 wins. Use this form to get your own calculation:

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The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-3 ACC, RV)

No shame in losing to Clemson, but the loss this week to Virginia has to hurt.

Indiana State (0-9, 0-6 MVFC, NR)

Florida (3-5, 3-4 SEC, NR)

Four-game losing streak for the Gators.

UMass (2-7, 0-0 IND, NR)

Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #1)

I think these guys have the best chance of anyone toppling Alabama in a long time.

South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC, NR)

Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #2)

Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC, NR)

Southern Miss (5-4, 3-2 C-USA, NR)