Earlier this month we looked at Tennessee’s win probabilities using ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Their formulas assign a win probability for each game (somewhere between 7% against Alabama and 99% against Indiana State); add up those percentages and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season wins.
Assigning percentages to each game is a more interesting and more reliable exercise to determine how you think the Vols will do this year; again, it’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 9-3 with these nine wins and those three losses, but it makes more sense to assign a percentage to each opponent.
We don’t have fancy formulas, but here are our staff picks for Tennessee’s regular season using win probability (each number represents the percentage chance we give Tennessee to win):
| Will | Joel | Brad | Dylan | STAFF AVG | |
| vs Georgia Tech | 60% | 60% | 65% | 80% | 66% |
| Indiana State | 100% | 98% | 95% | 100% | 98% |
| at Florida | 40% | 51% | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| UMass | 100% | 98% | 95% | 100% | 98% |
| Georgia | 50% | 45% | 45% | 55% | 49% |
| South Carolina | 70% | 75% | 60% | 65% | 68% |
| at Alabama | 15% | 10% | 20% | 10% | 14% |
| at Kentucky | 70% | 65% | 60% | 70% | 66% |
| Southern Miss | 95% | 90% | 90% | 100% | 94% |
| at Missouri | 75% | 70% | 70% | 75% | 73% |
| LSU | 40% | 25% | 40% | 45% | 38% |
| Vanderbilt | 75% | 70% | 65% | 90% | 75% |
| WINS | 7.90 | 7.57 | 7.60 | 8.45 | 7.88 |
Our staff is more or less on board with 8-4; Dylan is particularly more confident in wins over Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Joel is particularly less confident against LSU, but the numbers are fairly close everywhere else.
What about you? Find out below (thanks to Joel for the form wizardry) by selecting the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game to see your season projection, and be sure to submit it for our site average we’ll release next week.
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