With what’s happened to the Vols the last few games, fans have rightly been focused on Tennessee and have understandably been concerned about its ability to be competitive with the SEC. But there’s a bit of potentially good news this week, as the South Carolina Gamecocks come to Neyland Stadium with the worst rushing offense and the worst passing defense the Vols have played all year.
The Gamecocks have actually improved recently, and they really seem to have found their stride last week in a rout of Arkansas. As Will said on our Gameday on Rocky Top podcast this morning, if there is indeed trouble in the Tennessee locker room, South Carolina is good enough to make it obvious. But if the Vols can get their own act together and make the most of their apparent talent advantage, especially on offense, Saturday is shaping up to be a good game.
South Carolina’s Schedule
South Carolina (4-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
- W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
- W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
- W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
- W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
- W7: At Tennessee
- W8: Bye
- W9: Vanderbilt
- W10: At Georgia
- W11: Florida
- W12: Wofford
- W13: Clemson
That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 55th most difficult. Tennessee’s is ranked 59th.
Stats
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 137.6 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 145.7 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is South Carolina, is Florida, which is giving up 156.0 yards per game on the ground. The Vols got 183 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than the Gamecocks is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 101.8. Tennessee got 148 on the ground against the Yellow Jackets. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 165.
South Carolina rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 252.6 rushing yards per game. The South Carolina run game is averaging 97.0 yards per game, making the Gamecocks the worst rushing offense the Vols have played so far. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 107.5 rushing yards per game and got 144 against Tennessee. I’m guessing South Carolina will get about 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 195.8 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 248.8. That makes the Gamecocks the worst passing defense the Vols have played so far this year, at least in number of passing yards allowed per game. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Indiana State. They’re allowing 235.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 235 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up somewhere around 215 passing yards this weekend.
South Carolina passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 129.2 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 242.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 191.8 yards per game through the air, and they got 212 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 305.0 passing yards per game and got 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 220 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 24.2 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 21.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 24.2 points per game, and Tennessee got 20 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 19.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 28 against them in regulation. I’m waffling between Tennessee getting its average of 24 points against South Carolina and only getting 17 points based primarily on the last game against Georgia and having a new quarterback this week. I’m settling on 21.
South Carolina scoring
Tennessee is allowing 25.6 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 26.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 25.7 points, and they got 13 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 35.0 points and got 41 against Tennessee. I’m going with South Carolina getting around its average of 27 points against Tennessee.
SUMMARY
- Tennessee rushing yards: 165
- South Carolina rushing yards: 150
- Tennessee passing yards: 215
- South Carolina passing yards: 220
- Tennessee points: 21
- South Carolina points: 27
Current betting lines and other statistical models
The statsy preview calculator is a bit more pessimistic than Vegas, as the current spread favors the Vols between 2.5 and 3.5, with an over/under of 47.5-48. That makes it look more like Tennessee, 26-23.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 48.2% chance of beating the Gamecocks, and S&P+ likes the Vols, 28.4-24.
What does South Carolina do especially well and not especially well?
National Unit Rankings
| Statistic | National Rank |
|---|---|
| Passes Had Intercepted | 48 |
| Team Passing Efficiency | 49 |
| Passing Yards per Completion | 54 |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | 55 |
| Passing Offense | 57 |
| Completion Percentage | 62 |
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct | 77 |
| Scoring Offense | 84 |
| 4th Down Conversion Pct | 89 |
| First Downs Offense | 89 |
| Sacks Allowed | 103 |
| Red Zone Offense | 105 |
| Total Offense | 106 |
| Rushing Offense | 121 |
Offensive observations. There’s nothing here to get overly concerned about, as the numbers suggest that South Carolina’s offense really isn’t very good. They do some things well enough, but with a Total Offense ranked 106th and a Rushing Offense ranked 121st, that should give the Vols defense an opportunity to make them one dimensional. Assuming they can just shut down the run, then the key becomes whether Tennessee’s pass rush and the secondary can close the deal.
| Statistic | National Rank |
|---|---|
| Defensive TDs | 4 |
| Passes Intercepted | 32 |
| Scoring Defense | 38 |
| Red Zone Defense | 43 |
| Team Passing Efficiency Defense | 49 |
| 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense | 53 |
| Rushing Defense | 57 |
| Team Tackles for Loss | 72 |
| Total Defense | 74 |
| Team Sacks | 89 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 96 |
| First Downs Defense | 104 |
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense | 108 |
Defensive observations. On one hand, that Defensive TDs stat is special, as the Gamecocks have had three defensive scores so far this year. On the other hand, all three of them were last week, and unless they discovered some magic turnover bean or something, I would think that a fair amount of that was luck. Their guys are probably thinking they’re especially good at it now, and I hope that means that they’ll be a little overconfident and over-aggressive this week and that the Vols can use that against them. The stats also suggest that if the Gamecocks are not turning it over, they’re giving up yards, both on the ground and through the air. They’ve also not been especially good on first or third down, so the Vols offense should have some opportunities this week.
| Statistic | National Rank |
|---|---|
| Net Punting | 17 |
| Kickoff Returns | 28 |
| Blocked Kicks | 29 |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 48 |
| Punt Returns | 58 |
| Punt Return Defense | 79 |
| Statistic | National Rank |
|---|---|
| Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game | 1 |
| Fewest Penalty Yards | 4 |
| Fewest Penalties Per Game | 5 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 8 |
| Fewest Penalties | 11 |
| Turnovers Gained | 11 |
| Turnover Margin | 13 |
| Fumbles Lost | 16 |
| Turnovers Lost | 27 |
Special teams observations. I hope Marquez Callaway is 100% and has seen the opportunity that appears to be there in the punt return game.
Turnovers and Penalties observations. And yikes, the Gamecocks don’t make mistakes, either in turnovers or penalties, so the Vols are just going to have to beat them.
Players to Watch
Offense
The biggest threat on offense for the South Carolina Gamecocks appears to be in the passing game. It’s led by sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley, who is currently 114 of 188 for 1,456 yards and 12 touchdowns with four interceptions. He has a trio of young but talented receivers at his disposal in sophomore Bryan Edwards (27 receptions for 357 yards and a touchdown), and freshmen Shi Smith (14 receptions for 186 yards and a touchdown) and Ortre Smith (9 receptions for 113 yards and three touchdowns). Junior tight end Hayden Hurst is also a common target with 19 receptions, 297 yards, and two touchdowns so far this season.
Defense
On defense, the team is led by senior linebacker Skai Moore, who was one of three defensive players to score a touchdown last week against Arkansas. The other two were junior defensive back Keisean Nixon (a pick six, like Moore’s) and sophomore linebacker T.J. Brunson (74-yard fumble return). The secondary, too, is an experienced and talented lot, led by seniors JaMarcus King, D.J. Smith, and Chris Lammons.
Special Teams
South Carolina kickers are 5 of 14 on field goal attempts this year.