Tennessee opened as a 26-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week with an over/under of 55.5. Currently, those numbers are 27 and 57. Hat Guy thinks the spread is right on the nose, but he likes the over.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt, according to Hat Guy
From Tennessee’s perspective
Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing an average of 35.1 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Virginia 31.8
- Connecticut 30.9
- Florida 27.9
- South Carolina 27.3
- UTSA 24.3
- Kentucky 24.3
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
- Virginia 49
- Connecticut 59
- Florida 16
- South Carolina 41
- Kentucky 33
- UTSA 45
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 146%
Vanderbilt’s offense is scoring an average of 22.7 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Virginia 23.8
- Connecticut 18
- South Carolina 27.7
- Kentucky 27.7
- Florida 29.6
- Missouri 32.8
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Virginia 13
- Connecticut 3
- South Carolina 20
- Kentucky 27
- Florida 29
- Missouri 36
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%
Estimated score: Tennessee 51.2, Vanderbilt 18.2
From Vanderbilt’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 21.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Auburn 21.5
- Missouri 23.1
- Mississippi 23.7
- Kentucky 24.3
- UNLV 24.5
- Wake Forest 26.5
Vanderbilt’s points against those teams:
- Auburn 15
- Missouri 21
- Mississippi 7
- Kentucky 28
- UNLV 37
- Wake Forest 20
Vanderbilt’s offensive premium/discount: 89%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 30 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Florida 29.6
- Kentucky 27.7
- South Carolina 27.7
- Auburn 27.5
- Missouri 32.8
- UNLV 35.9
Vanderbilt’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Florida 38
- South Carolina 47
- Kentucky 45
- Auburn 31
- Missouri 38
- UNLV 40
Vanderbilt’s defensive premium/discount: 132%
Estimated score: Vanderbilt 19.4, Tennessee 39.6
Combined Estimated Score
| Home | Home Points | Away | Away Points | Favorite | Spread | Home RY | Away RY | Home PY | Away PY |
| Tennessee | 45.4 | Vanderbilt | 18.8 | Tennessee | -26.6 | 241.9 | 71.5 | 279.1 | 235.3 |
Hat Guy thinks this one is a push, but he likes the over.
Guts and Eyeballs
That looks about right to me.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 41, Vanderbilt 15, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 42, Vandy 14 (Vols -25.5.)
Bottom line
- Vegas opening: Tennessee -26 (~Vols 41, Commodores 15)
- Vegas current: Tennessee -27 (Vols 42, Commodores 15)
- Hat Guy: Tennessee -26.6 (Vols 45, Commodores 19) (Vols barely cover opening, but barely not closing)
- SP+: Tennessee -25.5 (Vols 42, Commodores 14 (Vols don’t cover either spread, but only barely)
- Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy
What do y’all think?