With it still being so early in the season, projecting games consists of attempting to identify what’s of value so far this season and what’s of value from last season, combining the two, and then comparing the result to your gut, which in the third game of any new season is on equal footing with data.
So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:
Predictions
Tennessee rushing yards: 200
UTEP rushing yards: 125
Tennessee passing yards: 200
UTEP passing yards: 90
Tennessee points: 45
UTEP points: 10
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 159.5 rushing yards per game so far in this short season. UTEP is giving up 260.5 per game, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have faced so far. UTEP’s run defense was similarly bad last season, so that supports the result from the small sample size of the 2018 season.
Tennessee got 129 rushing yards against West Virginia and 190 against ETSU. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against UTEP is 200.
UTEP rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 121.5 rushing yards per game so far in 2018, while the UTEP run game is averaging 183.5 yards per game. Last year, those numbers were 251.3 and 91.6, significantly worse for both teams.
West Virginia is averaging 203.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, and they put up 118 against the Vols. ETSU got 125 in Neyland. Based on all of that, I’m guessing UTEP will get maybe 125 yards rushing yards against Tennessee’s still-learning defense.
Tennessee passing
So far in 2018, Tennessee is averaging 198.0 passing yards per game, and UTEP is allowing 165.0. The Vols put up 224 against the Bucs and 172 against the Mountaineers, slightly more than their season average so far. My guess, then, is that Tennessee will end up with somewhere around 200 passing yards this weekend.
UTEP passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 249.0 passing yards per game so far this year, although they have West Virginia and Will Grier — who are averaging 382.5 passing yards per game through two games — on their resume. The Vols allowed only 69 to ETSU, which is now averaging 171.
UTEP is averaging only 125.0 passing yards per game so far this season, slightly less than the 134.9 they averaged in 2017.
Based on all of that, my expectation for the Vols’ passing defense in this game is that they’ll likely give up somewhere around 90 passing yards to UTEP.
Tennessee scoring
For what it’s worth, a 14-point game and a 59-point game gives Tennessee an average of 36.5 points per game this season. Their average last season was 19.8.
UTEP is currently allowing 41.0 points per game this season, a bit higher than their average of 36.8 last year.
The Vols scored 59 points against ETSU and 14 against West Virginia, which is allowing 15.5 points per game so far this year.
I think it’s probably safe to say that UTEP is closer to ETSU than West Virginia, so I’m going with an estimate of around 45 points against UTEP.
UTEP scoring
Tennessee is allowing 21.5 points per game so far in 2018. Last year, they allowed 29.1. Again, the variance is great when you consider ETSU and West Virginia were the two opponents.
UTEP’s offense is averaging 17.0 points per game this year after averaging 11.8 all of last year.
ETSU scored 28 points against Mars Hill but got only 3 against the Vols. The Mountaineers got 40 against Tennessee and then 52 against Youngstown State.
With that, I’m setting the expectation for UTEP’s points against the Vols at 10.
Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas
So, I’m going with Vols 45, UTEP 10, a spread of -35.
The Vegas spread is between 30.5 and 31, with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Tennessee 39, UTEP 8.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ gives the Vols a 98.8% chance of winning and spits out an expected score of 52.5-13.4, a spread of 39.1.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 98.4% chance of winning.