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Tennessee-Southern Miss Statsy Preview: Machines and humans in disagreement

Joel Hollingsworth
Jarrett Guarantano

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine, on a bit of a roll the past couple of weeks, now takes a look at Tennessee’s game against Southern Miss this Saturday night in Knoxville. Word of warning: You’re not going to like what it’s spitting out.

The SPM itself is giving the game to Southern Miss, with a score of 18.5-14.8, so . . . 19-15. If you think that discredits the thing entirely, I’ll point out that S&P+ likes the Golden Eagles by an even greater margin.

I’m pretty fond of my humble little SPM, but I’m still not buying that, so I’ve adjusted my own predictions to Tennessee, 23-14.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Southern Miss’ resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Southern Miss’ Schedule (5-3, 3-2 C-USA, NR)

That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 87th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 6th now, so keep that disparity in mind as you look at the stats.

Stats

To Tennessee, Southern Miss’ defense looks most like Georgia Tech and Georgia on the ground, like South Carolina and Georgia Tech through the air, and like Kentucky and South Carolina on the scoreboard. It’s offense looks most like Florida on the ground, like South Carolina and UMass through the air and on the scoreboard.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 134.4 rushing yards per game, while Southern Mississippi is giving up 127.6 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Southern Mississippi, is Georgia Tech, which is giving up 131.7 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 148 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Southern Mississippi is Georgia, which is allowing 94.8. Tennessee got 62 on the ground against Georgia. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Southern Mississippi is roughly its average of 135.

Southern Mississippi rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 252.3 rushing yards per game, while the Southern Mississippi run game is averaging 175.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 170.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 168 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 284.0 rushing yards per game and got 294 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Southern Mississippi will get somewhere around its average of 175 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 174.8 passing yards per game, and Southern Mississippi is allowing 203.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is giving up 244.9 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 133 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 198.4 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. The comps aren’t particularly compelling for this piece, but I’m going with Tennessee putting up 200 passing yards this weekend.

Southern Mississippi passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 148.6 passing yards per game. Southern Mississippi is getting 263.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 219.9 yards per game through the air, and they got 129 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 296.3 passing yards per game and got 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with Southern Mississippi putting up about 130 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 20.4 points per game, and Southern Mississippi is allowing 21.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is allowing 24.9 points per game, and Tennessee got 26 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 20.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 9 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 23 points against Southern Mississippi.

Southern Mississippi scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.1 points per game. Southern Mississippi is averaging 27.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 26.3 points, and they got 15 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 29.9 points and got 13 against Tennessee. I’m going with Southern Mississippi putting up about 14 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Southern Miss 18.5, Tennessee 14.8.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

My eyeball-adjusted predictions are in agreement with Vegas on the line but not the over/under, as the spread opened at -7, with an over/under of 48.5. That makes it look more like Tennessee, 28-21 or so. That’s also in line with ESPN’s FPI, which gives the Vols an 85.3% chance of beating Southern Miss.

However, the S&P+ likes Southern Miss in this one and gives the Vols a mere 28% chance of winning, setting the game at Southern Miss, 29-18.7.

So although I and the FPI still like the Vols, both S&P+ and the SPM like Southern Miss to win outright.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Kentucky last week.

Again, those were eyeball-adjusted numbers. The SPM itself said Kentucky 23.8, Tennessee 18.3.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Kentucky -5.5, and the SPM said the same thing, so it didn’t play. With human intervention, we went with Tennessee covering, so we’ll call that a win. Overall, the SPM went 30-25 for the week, posting 54.55%. Over the three weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, and 54.55% for an overall rate of 58.6%.