Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week, and the line is now vacillating between 3 and 3.5. So . . . does the Statsy Preview Machine think the Vols will cover against South Carolina Saturday night? Let’s take a look and then decide whether we think it’s right.
From the perspective of Tennessee
Neither Tennessee nor South Carolina have played a game yet this year, so the SPM will be using the prior year’s data both for (1) scoring offense and defense, and (2) comps.
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1
The South Carolina scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 26.1
BYU 25.5
Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee scored 41 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is scoring 130% of what those teams usually give up.
Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 33.9
The South Carolina scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
South Carolina 22.4
UAB 23.1
Against UAB, Tennessee allowed 7 points
Against South Carolina, Tennessee allowed 21 points
So, against the two best comps, Tennessee is allowing 61% of what those teams usually score.
Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.7
Estimated score: Tennessee 33.9, South Carolina 13.7
From the perspective of South Carolina
South Carolina’s Scoring Offense last year: 22.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense last year: 24.2
South Carolina’s Scoring Defense last year: 26.1
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense last year: 21.7
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 21.7
Texas A&M 22.5
Against Tennessee, South Carolina scored 21 points
Against Texas A&M, South Carolina scored 6 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is scoring 61% of what those teams usually give up.
Estimated points for South Carolina against Tennessee: 13.2
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior South Carolina opponent(s) (FBS only) and using 2019 data:
Tennessee 24.2
Missouri 25.3
Against Missouri, South Carolina allowed 34 points
Against Tennessee, South Carolina allowed 41 points
So, against the two best comps, South Carolina is allowing 152% of what those teams usually score.
Estimated points for Tennessee against South Carolina: 36.8
Estimated score: South Carolina 13.2, Tennessee 36.8
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 35.3, South Carolina 13.4
SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee –21.9
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 19.4
That’s a huge difference between the SPM’s projected spread and the Vegas line. It’s so big, in fact, that it’s over the sweet spot and into possibly-wonky territory.
Eyeball adjustments
The estimated points for Tennessee is probably inflated a bit just based on last year’s numbers, as it relies on the Vols’ 41 points against South Carolina in their last meeting, which was a bit of an anomaly. We probably shouldn’t expect them to get that 130% of what teams usually give up unless JIM CHANEY YEAR 2 WOO. If we remove last year’s game, the next best comp is Indiana, a game in which the Vols basically scored what the Hoosiers averaged giving up. So, if we use 100% instead of 130%, we get an estimated point total for the Vols of 26 from Tennessee’s perspective. With that, the combined estimated points for the Vols (from both teams’ perspectives) falls to 31.5.
Similarly, removing UAB as the second-best comp for Carolina’s defense leaves Missouri as the next-best, and the Vols held them to about 80% of what they averaged last season. At 80% instead of 60%, that’s still only 18 points for the Gamecocks from Tennessee’s perspective. So, their cumulative points moves only from 13 to 16, and we still have the Vols doubling them up.
From South Carolina’s perspective, if we removed Tennessee’s 41 points scored against them last year and look at Kentucky instead, that moves their percentage to 78%, which would make the Vols points 19. Combined, that’s still 22 points for Tennessee against 13-16 for the Gamecocks.
As far as intangibles go, my gut is in accord with the machine this week. If there’s any such thing as a hot seat in a pandemic year, Will Muschamp is on it. And until I see otherwise, I’m believing in significant improvement from Tennessee’s offense in Jim Chaney’s second year. I like the Vols by at least a touchdown and am fairly confident in something more.
So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13. Both I and the Statsy Preview Machine like the Vols to cover in this one.
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point favorites and are currently 3 – 3.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 43.5 – 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 24-20 (Vols -4), and gives the Vols a 60% chance of winning.
Bottom line
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine loves the Vols and I like them a lot as either a 2.5- or 3.5-point favorite. It has overshot the sweet spot for the machine, though, so some suspicion is advised.
- Vegas: Tennessee, -3.5 (~Tennessee 24, South Carolina 21)
- SP+: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 20 (covers)
- SPM: Tennessee 35, South Carolina 13 (covers with a woo)
- Me: Tennessee 28, South Carolina 13 (covers)
What do y’all think?