Tennessee Must Improve on the Opening Drive

How do you help your brand new quarterback in a critical game? Get off to a good start. And that’s something Tennessee has to do better regardless of who’s taking snaps.

In 56 games under Butch Jones, Tennessee has scored on the opening drive 19 times (34.5%) with 14 touchdowns and five field goals. Against FBS competition, the Vols have scored 15 times in 51 games (29.4%), with only 10 touchdowns on the opening drive (19.6%). And against power five opponents, the Vols have scored only seven touchdowns on the opening drive, with four of those coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. So only against Arkansas and South Carolina in 2015 and Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl have the Vols scored a touchdown on the opening drive against non-Kentucky/Vanderbilt power five opponents.

This year the Vols have been particularly bad:  three-and-outs against both Indiana State and UMass, just 10 yards in five plays against Georgia Tech, a first-play interception against Georgia and another in Florida territory. The Vols had a 20-yard gain on the opening drive at Florida, but failed to gain more than eight yards on a single play in any of their other opening drives this year.

As you’ll recall, starting hot was not a problem in 2015:  the Vols scored touchdowns on the opening drive against Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Texas, and Vanderbilt, plus field goals against Oklahoma and Missouri with a missed field goal at Alabama. The 2015 Vols also threw a pick against Georgia and fumbled deep in Kentucky territory. Only twice did the Vols punt on the opening drive that year:  at Florida, and in the Outback Bowl in the season’s only three-and-out on the first series. Other than the Northwestern game, every opening drive had a play that went for at least 13 yards.

The big play potential was there in 2016 as well:  aside from three-and-outs against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, the Vols had plays of at least 11 yards on every opening drive. But Tennessee struggled to finish drives last season, getting a field goal against Appalachian State and touchdowns against Ohio, Tennessee Tech, and Vanderbilt but punting it away every other time.

What we’ve seen this year is similar to what the Vols did in 2013 and the first half of 2014 before Josh Dobbs took over full-time. Tennessee scored a touchdown on the opening drive in the first (Austin Peay) and last (Kentucky) game of Butch Jones’ inaugural season, but had six punts and three turnovers in between. A 30-yard gain against Auburn led to a field goal, but seven of the other drives between the first and last game had plays gaining no more than six yards.

In games started by Justin Worley in 2014 (taking out Chattanooga), the Vols went three-and-out four times and also punted after a five-play drive at Ole Miss. Only against Georgia did the Vols produce points (a field goal) on their opening drive before Dobbs took over.

This year the Vols are averaging just three yards per play on the opening drive (21 plays, 63 yards) with no points. In all other years the Vols have averaged between 4.9 (2013) and 6.3 (2015) yards per play on the opening drive. And remember, this year’s team has already played the two worst teams on its schedule, and went three-and-out against both of them.

Tennessee will need to get Jarrett Guarantano in rhythm early, but may also need to address philosophical issues that could be leading to an overall lack of success on the game’s opening drive. There is no more necessary time to make those adjustments than now, to give a new quarterback and the head coach a better chance at success.

Here’s the full data from every game under Butch Jones: