We’re now to the point of the season where we can rely primarily on 2018 data, although the sample set is still small enough to view it with a healthy dose of skepticism. So, while we say goodbye to 2017 data, our stewpot still includes eyes and guts to go along with the 2018 data.
So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:
Predictions
SPM: Georgia 37, Tennessee 15
Eye- and gut-adjusted: Georgia 45, Tennessee 13
Tennessee rushing yards: 60
Georgia rushing yards: 200
Tennessee passing yards: 150
Georgia passing yards: 220
Tennessee points: 13
Georgia points: 45
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 205.0 rushing yards per game, while Georgia is giving up 118.8 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Georgia, is Florida (although it’s not very close at all), which is giving up 187.8 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them.
Surprisingly, West Virginia is actually better than Georgia at defending the run so far this season, allowing only 118.7 rushing yards per game. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against the Mountaineers.
Looking at things from Georgia’s perspective, they held South Carolina — which is averaging 196.7 yards per game on the ground — to only 54. Oof.
Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Georgia is 60.
Georgia rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 134.8 rushing yards per game, while the Georgia run game is averaging 250.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, but again, it’s not a very good comparison, as the Gators are getting only 189.0 yards per game on the ground. They ran for 201 against Tennessee.
Georgia will be the best rushing offense the Vols have played so far this season. Oof.
Looking through Georgia’s eyes, they ran for 271 against South Carolina and 185 against Missouri. Both of these results were far above (not far from double) what those teams usually give up on the ground (163 for South Carolina and 102.3 for Missouri).
All of that said, I’m guessing Georgia puts up 200 yards rushing against the Vols on Saturday.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 192.8 passing yards per game, and Georgia is allowing 173.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 185.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP. They’re allowing 163.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 167 against them.
Viewing things from Georgia’s perspective doesn’t shed much light on the subject.
My guess is that Tennessee will net somewhere around 150 passing yards this weekend.
Georgia passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 180.8 passing yards per game. Georgia is getting 227.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 194.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee.
The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 373.7 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee.
When playing South Carolina, Georgia put up 30 more yards than the average that South Carolina is giving up (they got 202).
I’m going with Georgia putting up about 220 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 29.5 points per game, and Georgia is allowing 13.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 16.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them.
The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 12.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. So, the Vols appear to be doing a little better than its opponents’ averages.
On the other hand, South Carolina is averaging 34.3 points per game but got only 17 against Georgia.
My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 13 points against the Bulldogs.
Georgia scoring
Tennessee is allowing 22.5 points per game. Georgia is averaging 44.5, making them the best scoring offense the Vols have seen this season. Oof.
The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 42.3 points, and they got 40 against Tennessee.
South Carolina’s defense is giving up an average of 23.3 points per game, and Georgia got 41 against them. Oof.
I’m going with Georgia basically hitting their average of 45 points against Tennessee.
Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas
Left alone, the SPM says Georgia 37, Tennessee 15, a spread of 22.
With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Georgia 45, Tennessee 13, a spread of 32.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Georgia has a 93.5% chance of winning and puts the score at Georgia 44.9, Tennessee 18.6, a spread of 26.3.
The Vegas spread favors Georgia by between 31 and 32, with an over/under of 51.5-52, which converts to something like Georgia 42, Tennessee 10.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 2.6% chance of winning.
Oof.