Putting Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the oppositional rankings for Georgia suggests (1) that the Bulldogs’ defense is going to make the Vols’ offense look bad even if they’ve improved, (2) that the Vols might be able to hold on for a while on defense, and (3) that any opportunity to make this a game will probably come courtesy of special teams or the Maxim 1 categories of turnovers and penalties.
Vols on offense
When Tennessee’s offense goes up against Georgia’s defense, the Vols have only one slight advantage, in Tackles for Loss Allowed. Note that even that is offset by Sacks Allowed, where Georgia has a big advantage, so it’s not that the Bulldogs aren’t getting through the line.
Other than that, the Georgia defense has huge advantages all over the board, most notably on 1st downs. And 4th downs. And Total Defense. They also have the advantage on 3rd downs. Second downs aren’t measured. Sigh. The biggest disparity when the Vols have the ball is on first downs, where the Vols rank only 113th, and they’re going up against a defense ranking No. 7.
Bottom line, expect the Vols’ offense to have a long, long day. Even if they have improved since the beginning of the season, Georgia’s defense is going to make it difficult to see. They’re going to look bad even if they’re actually better, so just brace for it.
Vols on defense
It’s a little more even on the other side of the ball, with Tennessee’s defense having slightly better numbers than Georgia’s defense in the passing game and on 1st and 4th downs.
But Georgia still has more and bigger advantages, most notably in tackles for loss, which is the biggest disparity when the Dawgs have the ball. There’s a similar disparity in sacks. The numbers suggest that the Vols defense is not getting at the guy holding or carrying the ball behind the line of scrimmage.
Special teams
Tennessee might have an actual advantage in special teams. The biggest disparity in the entire matchup comes when Tennessee is kicking off, as the Vols rank 1st in the nation in defense (presumably because our kicker is the King of Touchbacks) and the Bulldogs rank 114th in returning kicks.
There’s also an opportunity for Marquez Callaway to maybe make something happen in the punt return game. This, of course, assumes Georgia punts.
Where the numbers favor Georgia on special teams, it’s only slightly.
Turnovers and penalties
Well look at this. The optimist in me perked up at discovering that the Vols rank better than Georgia at nearly every penalty and turnover category. Unfortunately, rivals will point to this to mock Neyland and his First Maxim.