Tennessee opened as a 10-point underdog to Georgia this week with an over/under of 59.5. Currently, those numbers are 10.5 and 58.5. Hat Guy is rooting for the Vols but expecting Georgia to cover.
Tennessee vs Georgia, according to Hat Guy
From Tennessee’s perspective
Georgia’s defense is allowing an average of 15.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Alabama 18.1
- Texas A&M 20.4
- Missouri 22.3
- UTSA 24.6
- Kentucky 25
- Florida 27.4
Tennessee’s points against those teams:
- Alabama 20
- Texas A&M 20
- Missouri 7
- UTSA 45
- Kentucky 33
- Florida 16
Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 102%
Georgia’s offense is scoring an average of 40.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Texas A&M 34.2
- Alabama 33.6
- Missouri 32.8
- UTSA 31.5
- Florida 29.5
- Kentucky 29.1
Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Texas A&M 13
- Alabama 34
- Missouri 36
- UTSA 14
- Florida 29
- Kentucky 27
Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 80%
Estimated score: Tennessee 15.9, Georgia 32.5
From Georgia’s perspective
Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 20.2 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:
- Auburn 20.5
- Missouri 22.3
- Kentucky 25
- Mississippi 25.8
- Ball State 27.3
- Florida 27.4
Georgia’s points against those teams:
- Auburn 27
- Missouri 30
- Kentucky 51
- Mississippi 52
- Ball State 45
- Florida 43
Georgia’s offensive premium/discount: 167%
Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:
- Missouri 32.8
- Florida 29.5
- Auburn 29.3
- Kentucky 29.1
- South Carolina 28.8
- UAB 28.3
Georgia’s defensive performance against those teams:
- Missouri 21
- Florida 20
- Auburn 20
- Kentucky 13
- South Carolina 14
- UAB 21
Georgia’s defensive premium/discount: 61%
Estimated score: Georgia 33.7, Tennessee 19.5
Combined Estimated Score
| Home | Home Points | Away | Away Points | Favorite | Spread | Home RY | Away RY | Home PY | Away PY |
| Tennessee | 17.7 | Georgia | 33.1 | Georgia | -15.4 | 182.4 | 149.4 | 185.1 | 287.6 |
Hat Guy likes Georgia to cover tomorrow, and he likes the under.
Guts and Eyeballs
I don’t like it, but those comps all look solid to me. How much of a difference does Neyland Stadium make? I’m thinking not enough in the end.
Other predictions from other systems
Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Georgia 35, Tennessee 25, give or take. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Georgia 33, Tennessee 22 (Dawgs -10).
Bottom line
- Vegas opening: Georgia -10 (~Dawgs 35, Vols 25)
- Vegas current: Georgia -10.5 (~Dawgs 34, Vols 24)
- Hat Guy: Georgia -15 (Dawgs 33, Vols 18) (Dawgs cover)
- SP+: Georgia -10.8 (Dawgs 33, Vols 22) (Dawgs cover)
- Guts and Eyeballs: Same as Hat Guy
What do y’all think?