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Will Saturday simplify the conversation?

GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 21: University of Tennessee defensive end Darel Middleton (97) takes on University of Florida center Nich Buchanan (66) during a college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Florida Gators on September 21, 2019, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL. (Photo by Mary Holt/Icon Sportswire)

When the 2020 schedule was originally announced, having Georgia near the end was a sigh of relief. Tennessee’s schedule is traditionally so front-loaded, there are few opportunities for meaningful wins in November. And when the schedule was adapted in the pandemic, the Dawgs and Gators essentially switched places, but the impact was the same: something to look forward to, a chance to stay in the hunt in the SEC East, and an ability for the story of your season to get told in its final weeks. Even if you leave the Georgia and Alabama results the same, had the Vols beaten Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn, they’d be playing Florida for a chance to create a three-way tie for first place in the SEC East tomorrow.

It’s not that Tennessee would’ve been favored to beat the Gators, or the front-runner for Atlanta even if they did, a scenario that would still require the Vols to beat Texas A&M and Georgia to lose to Missouri. But the feel of all of this, even in a strange year, would be so very different and mean so very much.

The idea of beating Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn, even now, feels almost close enough to touch. But what we’ve grasped instead are catastrophic mistakes and inefficient football, leading to five straight losses by double digits, the worst of all firsts this year. And now the Gators, who have felt like the most attainable win among our three biggest rivals for the last four seasons, can feel out of reach.

Florida remains a 17.5-point favorite. In the thirty years we’ve now been playing this rivalry on an annual basis, it is the second-biggest line the Vols have faced in this game, topped only by the, “Is Urban Meyer going to attempt murder on Lane Kiffin?” +30 Tennessee saw in 2009. In happier Decembers, the next one on the list is still the +16.5 the Vols closed at in 2001. That game never feels like the answer to this question because that line was always so ridiculous, but +16.5 is, by Vegas, the biggest upset the Vols have pulled off in at least the last 35 years. That’s the fun part. It’s also the hard part: if you want to entertain idiot optimism for tomorrow, the line holding at +17.5 would require the biggest upset of our generation.

In their first year, Derek Dooley and Butch Jones faced Florida teams coming off Sugar Bowl appearances. Both of those Gators squads would struggle, but we didn’t know that in September and didn’t know anything about the Vols in year one, so Tennessee was understandably +15.5 in 2013 and +13.5 in 2010. But next on the list is 2019, when the Vols closed at +12.5 (all historical lines via covers.com). That means Tennessee has faced two of its six worst odds against the Gators in the last 30 years back-to-back:

Vols Biggest Underdogs vs Florida 1990-2020

  1. 2009 +30
  2. 2020 +17.5
  3. 2001 +16.5
  4. 2013 +15.5
  5. 2010 +13.5
  6. 2019 +12.5

And in the last two years, the Vols have earned two of their worst defeats against the Gators in that same span:

Vols Biggest Losses vs Florida 1990-2020

  1. 2007 Florida 59 Tennessee 20
  2. 1994 Florida 31 Tennessee 0 (tie goes to the shutout)
  3. 2019 Florida 34 Tennessee 3
  4. 2018 Florida 47 Tennessee 21

In 2007, the Vols actually trailed just 28-20 and had the ball with five minutes to play in the third quarter. A fumbled exchange between Erik Ainge and Arian Foster was returned for a touchdown, and the floodgates ensued. That Florida team had the Heisman winner, a similarity we may find on Saturday. But that Tennessee team still won the SEC East.

In 1994, the Vols have the should’ve-been-eventual Heisman winner, but he was just a freshman and wasn’t thrown to these particular wolves. Instead, Todd Helton ate a shutout in a Knoxville downpour to #1 Florida.

You can find some similar forgiveness in the 2018 game, where the Vols didn’t punt or score a touchdown on their first ten possessions, still one of the strangest sequences in a dozen years of strange around here. The Vols still almost outgained the Gators, continuing a seven year trend in this rivalry from 2012-18 of Tennessee shooting all its toes off. But whatever perception is worth, Jeremy Pruitt’s first Vols were only +3.5 to Dan Mullen’s first Gators.

Last year, the Vols were still quite good at shooting themselves. Tennessee threw an interception in the end zone after a short field in a 7-0 game, then threw another after stopping Florida on fourth down. They allowed Florida to convert a 2nd-and-17 with two minutes left in the first half to push the game to three possessions. And Brian Maurer promptly turned it over on the third play of the third quarter. But the final tally was far more telling: Florida outgained the Vols 441 to 239, and won by 31.

If we get another one of those games tomorrow – Gators by four possessions for the third year in a row – it could simplify the conversation about Tennessee’s future. There’s always math to be done in recruiting and finances, both made fuzzier by the pandemic. But, already at a significant disadvantage against the Tide and Dawgs, if the Vols are blown out by Florida again – if this rivalry also begins to feel out of reach on an annual basis – that would certainly be included in the equation of Tennessee’s future.

But perhaps the conversation could be simplified in another direction.

We know midseason replacement quarterbacks at Tennessee tend to struggle in their first start. That is indeed what it seems Harrison Bailey will get against the Gators. But if Bailey can provide a real spark offensively – setting aside what Tennessee’s defense may or may not be able to do against the Kyles – the conversation about Tennessee’s future could be simplified as well: “Let’s see what this kid can do.”

It’s worth noting, to me, that if Jarrett Guarantano takes a snap in Tennessee’s last three games (or three of four should the Vols actually find their way to a bowl), he’ll trail only Peyton Manning and Casey Clausen in total appearances by a quarterback at Tennessee in my lifetime (data via sports-reference.com; shout out to Andy Kelly who is technically higher on the appearance list thanks to his work as a pooch punter early in his career).

Guarantano has seen action as Tennessee’s quarterback on 41 different occasions. There is no one really to compare him to, so unique has his time been for so long, and so frustrating Tennessee’s inability to get better both through and around him. I have no doubt that he’s taken more hits than any Tennessee quarterback, ever. He deserves, truly, our gratitude for that.

If he takes a snap in three more games – Bailey could get hurt on the first play, who knows – the guy he’ll pass for third place on the QB appearance list is Erik Ainge. Sixteen years ago, Erik Ainge was a true freshman who didn’t get spring practice. He and fellow freshman Brent Schaeffer helped the Vols beat UNLV in the opener, then got the Gators.

Schaeffer started and went 3-for-4 for 40 yards, plus 38 yards on seven carries. Ainge finished with 16-of-24 for 192 yards, an interception, and three touchdowns. And the Vols won, in memorable fashion.

In the UNLV recap at ESPN.com, there’s a note I’d forgotten: Schaeffer was the first true freshman quarterback to start in the SEC since 1945. 2004 can feel as far from 1945 as 2020 feels from 2004, both for freshman quarterbacks and for Tennessee. The Vols were actually the favorite against Florida in 2004 at -3, so the expectation is certainly different for Harrison Bailey. But an opportunity to simplify the conversation in a positive direction makes tomorrow afternoon meaningful, for him and the Vols. It’s certainly not the kind of meaning we were looking for at the start of the season. But it has a chance to be a truly important Saturday either way.