“Less.” Let’s start there.
The college football I’ve seen sounds more like its high school equivalent, but that still sounds more daunting than bubbles and empty arenas. The notion of home court advantage has been obliterated in the NBA Playoffs; the traditional road team has won 12 games in a row in contests featuring the Boston Celtics, for instance. In SP+ projections, home field advantage is now worth just a single point.
For Tennessee and South Carolina? Home field has been worth quite a bit.
In Knoxville, the Vols have won five of the last seven, and 2019’s 20-point margin of victory was the largest in the series since 2008. In Columbia, South Carolina has won five of the last six, and the Vols needed the miraculous to get that one in 2014.
Even as Tennessee’s program struggled and South Carolina’s ascended in the last decade, the games have always been close in Columbia: Tyler Bray’s debut against the eventual East champions in 2010, Derek Dooley’s last chance against an equally good Carolina team in 2012, both coming up just short in the fourth quarter. After Dobbs’ comeback in 2014, the Gamecocks pulled the shocking upset as a two-touchdown underdog to derail the 2016 season two years later. And two years ago, Jeremy Pruitt’s first team had a 21-9 lead after the opening drive of the third quarter, but gave up two touchdowns and a field goal on South Carolina’s next three drives for a 27-24 loss.
Tennessee’s luck in Columbia as opposed to the other second-tier SEC East foes:
Vols on the road since 2008:
| Opponent | W | L |
| South Carolina | 1 | 5 |
| Kentucky | 4 | 2 |
| Missouri | 2 | 2 |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 |
Before the Vols blew last year’s game open, games in this series from 2012-18 were decided by three, two, three in overtime, three, three, six at the one yard line, and three. It may be easy for Tennessee fans to still hold onto notions of who South Carolina isn’t. Likewise, it may be easy for South Carolina fans to still hold onto notions of who the Vols still aren’t. Either way, the history here suggests something very close…and home field being worth even a little less is good news for Tennessee in this series.