After delving into the stats and comps this week, we emerge with what appears to be another put a phonebook in your pants game for the Vols this week against Alabama. But hey, if it’s looking like the Georgia game of a few weeks ago, perhaps just a little more improvement and a friendly home crowd will make it interesting even longer this time around.
Here are the predictions, stats, comps, and reasoning.
Predictions
SPM: Alabama 41, Tennessee 18
Eye- and gut-adjusted: Alabama 45, Tennessee 17
Tennessee rushing yards: 80
Alabama rushing yards: 230
Tennessee passing yards: 220
Alabama passing yards: 330
Tennessee points: 17
Alabama points: 45
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 159.0 rushing yards per game, while Alabama is giving up 125.1 per game. The Vols have played no one better, but Auburn, which is giving up 125.9 yards per game on the ground, is pretty much the same. Tennessee got 68 against them. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Alabama is 80.
Alabama rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, while the Alabama run game is averaging 216.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 197.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 201 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 226.3 rushing yards per game and got 251 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Alabama will get about 230 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 207.0 passing yards per game, and Alabama is allowing 189.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is giving up 208.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 328 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP. They’re allowing 189.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 167 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 220 passing yards this weekend.
Alabama passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 205.8 passing yards per game. Alabama is getting 350.3. Tennessee’s played no one better. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 320.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 429 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 330 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 26.7 points per game, and Alabama is allowing 15.1. The Vols have played no one better. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 16.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Alabama.
Alabama scoring
Tennessee is allowing 25.3 points per game. Alabama is averaging 53.6. Nobody’s better. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 39.0 points, and they got 38 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 45 points against Tennessee.
Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas
Left alone, the SPM says Alabama 41, Tennessee 18, a spread of -23.
With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Alabama 45, Tennessee 17, a spread of -28.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has an 8% chance of winning and puts the score at Alabama 44.8, Tennessee 20.5, a spread of 24.3.
The Vegas spread favors Alabama by between 28.5 and 29, with an over/under of 56.5-57, which converts to something like Alabama 42, Tennessee 14.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 5.7% chance of winning.