While everyone else is hugging the #Grumors like a long-lost loved one, the Statsy Preview Machine has been hard at work looking at this weekend’s game between the Tennessee Vols and the LSU Tigers. It has bad news.
LSU (7-3, 4-2 SEC, #20)
- W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
- W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
- W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
- W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
- W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
- W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
- W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
- W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
- W9: Bye
- W10: Lost to #2 Alabama, 24-10.
- W11: Best Arkansas, 33-10.
- W12: Tennessee
- W13: Texas A&M
That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 28th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 20th now, so the stats of the two teams have been compiled against pretty similar competition.
Stats
It looks like Tennessee’s offense is going to continue to struggle this weekend going up against LSU’s defense. If the Vols defense performs up to expectations, it doesn’t look like LSU will run away with it, though. Details below.
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 131.6 rushing yards per game, while LSU is giving up 142.4 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is LSU, is Missouri, which is giving up 177.8 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 146 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than LSU is South Carolina, which is allowing 142.1. Tennessee got 120 on the ground against South Carolina. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against LSU is 110.
LSU rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 256.9 rushing yards per game, while the LSU run game is averaging 207.9 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Missouri, which is getting 195.6 yards per game on the ground, and they got 433 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 256.0 rushing yards per game and got 294 against Tennessee. I’m guessing LSU will get about 300 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee passing
Tennessee is averaging 165.2 passing yards per game, and LSU is allowing 174.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is giving up 187.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 115 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 173.7 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 80 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 110 passing yards this weekend.
LSU passing
The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 157.6 passing yards per game. LSU is getting 198.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is getting 192.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 82 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 203.3 passing yards per game and got 332 against Tennessee. I’m going with LSU putting up about 200 passing yards against Tennessee.
Tennessee scoring
Tennessee is averaging 20.4 points per game, and LSU is allowing 19.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is allowing 20.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 9 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 14.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 0 against them. That leads to such an extraordinarily depressingly low number for the Vols that I can’t wrap my mind around it, so I’m going to ignore the 4.5 points the machine is coughing up like particularly crusty hairball. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score around 13 points against LSU.
LSU scoring
Tennessee is allowing 27.7 points per game. LSU is averaging 26.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 24.8 points, and they got 15 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is averaging 27.2 points and got 10 against Tennessee. I’m going with LSU putting up somewhere around 24 points against Tennessee.
SUMMARY
- Tennessee rushing yards: 110
- LSU rushing yards: 300
- Tennessee passing yards: 110
- LSU passing yards: 200
- Tennessee points: 13
- LSU points: 24
Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out LSU 17.3, Tennessee 6.3.
Current betting lines and other statistical models
The spread opened at LSU -14, with an over/under of 46. The line is now between 15.5 and 16. That makes the score look like LSU, 30-16 or so. So, the SPM is more pessimistic on the number of points scored and more optimistic on the spread.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 22.6% chance of beating LSU, and the S&P+ gives the Vols a 25% chance of winning, projecting a score of 30.7-18.9, LSU.
Basically, the statistical models and Vegas all like LSU by at least 11 points this weekend, but the stat models are also saying that Tennessee should cover.
Last Week
Here’s how the Statsy Preview Machine did for the game between Tennessee and Kentucky last week.
- Tennessee rushing yards: 160 (actually 146)
- Missouri rushing yards: 150 (actually 433) (!)
- Tennessee passing yards: 200 (actually 139)
- Missouri passing yards: 240 (actually 226)
- Tennessee points: 31 (actually 17)
- Missouri points: 43 (actually 50)
Again, those were eyeball-adjusted numbers. The SPM itself said Missouri 33.3, Tennessee 24.
Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?
The line was Missouri -10.5, and the SPM was thinking more like Missouri -9, so no, the SPM lost that game. It also had its first losing week since we started testing it, going 26-30 for the week, a 46.43%. It’s still doing well over the long haul, though, sitting at 157-122 (56.27%). For the record, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, and 54.55%, 55.93%, and 46.43%.