After over three years of hiding in the shadows of Tennessee previews, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine finally stepped out into the spotlight last week, cleared its throat, and promptly threw up.
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
Last week, the SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) overall, and its favorites didn’t do much better. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 6-7 (46.15%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was only 3-5 (37.50%). It’s this last group that we’ve been referring to as our “favorites” and posted for the world to see last week.
This was out of character for the favorites, though. So far this season, the favorites have been under .500 only twice, once last week and once in the second week of the season when it went 3-4. Three other times, it’s been right at .500. The other weeks: 11-4, 6-2, 5-2, 12-3, 6-5, 8-3, and 7-2. I’m calling last week stage fright.
For the season, the SPM is now 301-284 (51.45%) overall, 127-96 (56.95%) over the confidence threshold, and 73-42 (63.48%) for the favorites.
Meanwhile, the SP+ had an excellent week, finishing at 29-21-1 (58%) and is still 55% on the season.
SPM favorite picks this week
Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | SPM Pick ATS |
| Nevada | Fresno State | Fresno State | -13.5 | Fresno State | -22.8 | Fresno State |
| Eastern Michigan | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois | -5.5 | Eastern Michigan | -3.8 | Eastern Michigan |
| Purdue | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -23 | Wisconsin | -32.8 | Wisconsin |
| Troy | La-Lafayette | La-Lafayette | -14 | La-Lafayette | -24.4 | La-Lafayette |
| Florida Atlantic | UTSA | Florida Atlantic | -18.5 | Florida Atlantic | -29.1 | Florida Atlantic |
| Boston College | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | -20.5 | Notre Dame | -9.8 | Boston College |
| Boise State | Utah State | Boise State | -8.5 | Boise State | -19.3 | Boise State |
| Oklahoma State | West Virginia | Oklahoma State | -8 | Oklahoma State | -19.1 | Oklahoma State |
| Texas | Baylor | Baylor | -5 | Texas | -6.7 | Texas |
| Liberty | Virginia | Virginia | -17.5 | Virginia | -5.4 | Liberty |
| Penn State | Ohio State | Ohio State | -10 | Ohio State | -22.3 | Ohio State |
| Arkansas | LSU | LSU | -44.5 | LSU | -31.9 | Arkansas |
| Tennessee | Missouri | Missouri | -4.5 | Tennessee | -8.2 | Tennessee |
| Coastal Carolina | La-Monroe | La-Monroe | -6.5 | Coastal Carolina | -6.4 | Coastal Carolina |
| Minnesota | Northwestern | Minnesota | -10 | Minnesota | -23.8 | Minnesota |
What do y’all think?