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Returning production for 2020

Joel Hollingsworth

Now that we’ve established why and how much returning production matters, let’s take a look at this year’s results. First up, all the kits and the caboodles:

Team Offense O-Rank Defense D-Rank Total T-Rank
Georgia Tech 84% 14 92% 2 89% 1
Oklahoma State 84% 15 90% 4 88% 2
USC 82% 18 88% 6 86% 3
Houston 71% 37 91% 3 83% 4
UAB 85% 12 78% 18 81% 5
Rice 60% 76 95% 1 81% 6
Virginia Tech 66% 50 89% 5 80% 7
Northwestern 90% 5 71% 36 78% 8
Purdue 80% 23 77% 19 78% 9
Old Dominion 74% 29 81% 11 78% 10
Indiana 65% 52 85% 9 77% 11
Louisville 86% 10 70% 39 76% 12
Toledo 73% 31 77% 20 76% 13
Florida State 65% 53 81% 12 75% 14
North Carolina 92% 2 62% 62 74% 16
Buffalo 91% 3 62% 63 74% 17
Akron 88% 7 64% 55 74% 18
Texas 72% 33 76% 26 74% 15
Coastal Carolina 84% 16 65% 51 73% 20
Western Kentucky 53% 97 86% 8 73% 19
Texas A&M 77% 25 69% 42 72% 21
UCF 69% 42 74% 32 72% 22
Miami (Ohio) 87% 9 61% 68 71% 25
East Carolina 82% 19 64% 56 71% 24
Nevada 76% 27 67% 50 71% 29
BYU 72% 34 70% 40 71% 31
Memphis 69% 43 72% 35 71% 28
Kentucky 65% 54 76% 27 71% 23
Ohio 63% 65 77% 21 71% 26
Ball State 63% 66 76% 28 71% 27
Central Michigan 62% 71 77% 22 71% 30
Mississippi 84% 17 60% 76 70% 38
Georgia Southern 82% 20 62% 64 70% 36
Illinois 72% 35 69% 43 70% 34
Iowa State 69% 44 71% 37 70% 33
Rutgers 60% 77 77% 23 70% 35
Cincinnati 60% 78 77% 24 70% 37
Georgia State 55% 90 80% 13 70% 32
California 93% 1 53% 101 69% 41
North Carolina State 90% 6 54% 94 69% 45
Nebraska 86% 11 58% 80 69% 42
Colorado State 77% 26 63% 59 69% 44
Tennessee 70% 38 69% 44 69% 40
Arizona 64% 59 73% 33 69% 43
Oregon 55% 91 79% 14 69% 39
Penn State 74% 30 64% 58 68% 47
Pittsburgh 73% 32 64% 57 68% 46
UTSA 82% 21 57% 84 67% 53
Marshall 81% 22 57% 85 67% 54
Louisiana-Lafayette 65% 55 69% 45 67% 48
South Florida 64% 60 70% 41 67% 49
Wisconsin 55% 92 75% 31 67% 51
Washington State 54% 95 76% 29 67% 50
Boston College 49% 105 79% 15 67% 52
Appalachian State 80% 24 56% 89 66% 58
Troy 68% 46 65% 52 66% 55
Duke 58% 84 71% 38 66% 57
Virginia 46% 112 79% 16 66% 56
Middle Tennessee 85% 13 51% 104 65% 60
Connecticut 68% 47 62% 65 65% 61
Boise State 64% 61 65% 53 65% 64
Texas Tech 52% 99 73% 34 65% 63
Oregon State 38% 123 83% 10 65% 59
Vanderbilt 31% 128 87% 7 65% 62
West Virginia 72% 36 59% 79 64% 65
Clemson 70% 39 60% 77 64% 66
San Diego State 63% 67 63% 60 63% 68
Arizona State 44% 115 76% 30 63% 67
Wyoming 69% 45 58% 81 62% 69
Arkansas 63% 68 62% 66 62% 70
South Carolina 53% 98 68% 46 62% 71
Georgia 38% 124 77% 25 62% 72
Kansas State 60% 79 61% 69 61% 73
Tulsa 91% 4 39% 121 60% 78
South Alabama 65% 56 57% 86 60% 77
Fresno State 58% 85 61% 70 60% 75
Navy 58% 86 61% 71 60% 79
Oklahoma 49% 106 68% 47 60% 74
Washington 32% 126 79% 17 60% 76
Charlotte 75% 28 48% 110 59% 81
UCLA 67% 48 54% 95 59% 80
Iowa 65% 57 54% 96 59% 84
Kent State 64% 62 55% 90 59% 86
Notre Dame 61% 74 58% 82 59% 83
Florida 57% 88 61% 72 59% 82
TCU 55% 93 61% 73 59% 85
Southern Mississippi 64% 63 55% 91 58% 87
Auburn 63% 69 55% 92 58% 88
Missouri 49% 107 63% 61 58% 89
North Texas 61% 75 54% 97 57% 91
San Jose State 51% 100 61% 74 57% 92
Colorado 46% 113 65% 54 57% 90
New Mexico 70% 40 47% 112 56% 95
Minnesota 66% 51 50% 107 56% 96
Wake Forest 39% 120 68% 48 56% 93
Louisiana-Monroe 39% 121 68% 49 56% 94
SMU 56% 89 53% 102 55% 99
Hawai'i 50% 104 58% 83 55% 98
Liberty 44% 116 62% 67 55% 97
Army 63% 70 48% 111 54% 102
Stanford 55% 94 54% 98 54% 101
Bowling Green 51% 101 57% 87 54% 100
UNLV 88% 8 29% 129 53% 104
Alabama 64% 64 46% 114 53% 103
Ohio State 59% 82 49% 108 53% 105
UTEP 49% 108 54% 99 52% 107
Massachusetts 48% 109 55% 93 52% 106
Utah State 48% 110 54% 100 52% 109
Tulane 39% 122 60% 78 52% 108
Temple 70% 41 38% 122 51% 110
Florida Atlantic 62% 72 41% 120 50% 114
Maryland 59% 83 44% 118 50% 112
Michigan 51% 102 49% 109 50% 111
Western Michigan 40% 119 57% 88 50% 113
Kansas 54% 96 46% 115 49% 116
Michigan State 47% 111 51% 105 49% 115
Florida International 30% 129 61% 75 49% 117
Mississippi State 51% 103 46% 116 48% 118
Arkansas State 62% 73 37% 123 47% 120
Northern Illinois 42% 118 51% 106 47% 119
Texas State 65% 58 34% 125 46% 121
Syracuse 58% 87 37% 124 46% 122
Baylor 67% 49 29% 130 45% 124
LSU 32% 127 53% 103 45% 123
Miami (Florida) 60% 80 33% 126 44% 125
Louisiana Tech 60% 81 33% 127 44% 126
Eastern Michigan 37% 125 47% 113 43% 127
Air Force 43% 117 42% 119 42% 128
Utah 46% 114 30% 128 37% 130
New Mexico State 24% 130 46% 117 37% 129

Overall returning production

The teams with the most overall returning production are Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and USC. Also notable toward the top of the list are Virginia Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Texas, and North Carolina.

At the bottom of the list? Utah, which is why I’m not high on Utah despite the arrival of Jake Bentley. In all, seven Utes from last year’s team were drafted. On offense, the draft losses were limited to running back Zack Moss, although his contribution last season — 1,416 yards and 15 touchdowns — constitutes a huge hole all by itself. The bigger catastrophe is on the defensive side of the ball, where three defensive linemen and three defensive backs were all drafted and another defensive back left early but didn’t get picked. Kyle Whittingham knows what he’s doing, but that right there is a chore.

Other notables toward the bottom of the list are Miami, Baylor, LSU, Mississippi State, and Michigan.

Offensive returning production

Notable teams that return a lot on offense include Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, and USC. Teams with challenges on that side of the ball include LSU, Georgia, and Utah. More on Georgia’s offensive challenges in a minute.

Defensive returning production

Teams in particularly good shape on defense include Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, USC, Florida State, and Purdue. On the flip side, Baylor, Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, and Alabama all have major holes to fill. With the way they recruit, the Tide are going to be fine, of course, but plugging those holes is on the to-do list.

What about the SEC?

Here’s how things shape up in the SEC:

Team Offense O-Rank Defense D-Rank Total T-Rank
64% 5 46% 13 53% 12
63% 6 62% 8 62% 6
63% 7 55% 11 58% 10
57% 8 61% 9 59% 9
38% 12 77% 2 62% 7
65% 4 76% 3 71% 2
32% 13 53% 12 45% 14
84% 1 60% 10 70% 3
51% 10 46% 14 48% 13
49% 11 63% 7 58% 11
53% 9 68% 6 62% 8
70% 3 69% 5 69% 4
77% 2 69% 4 72% 1
31% 14 87% 1 65% 5

Overall

Overall, A&M leads the league in returning production, followed closely by Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. This is just one of the many reasons we and so many others reaaaaally like the Aggies as a dark-horse pick for the West. It’s also why we Vols fans are still looking over our shoulders at Kentucky even though Tennessee is improving.

LSU brings up the rear with only 45%. The Tigers are basically starting over, and it’s not just because they lost Joe Burrow. Also gone are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, most of the offensive line, most of the linebackers, and Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit. And we haven’t even talked about the coordinators yet.

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Offense

When you sort that thing by offense, Ole Miss takes the top spot by a long shot, followed by A&M and Tennessee. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels could make trouble for some folks in the West this fall.

Vanderbilt earns the distinction of returning the least amount of offensive production in the SEC, largely due to having every single one of last year’s quarterbacks either graduate or jump ship. LSU has offensive roster attrition you knew was coming.

Georgia has issues as well, most notably the early departures of quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift and the loss of four starters along the offensive line to the NFL and the transfer portal. The offensive returning production for the Bulldogs is just one of the factors that I believe is going to lead to Florida overtaking them this year.

Defense

Vanderbilt wins today’s Out-Of-Balance award, as the Commodores return the most amount of defensive production to offset returning the least amount on offense. Go ‘Dores.

Right behind Vanderbilt is Georgia, a frightening prospect for a defense that finished first in the nation in both rushing and scoring defense last fall. Whatever challenges they might face on offense, the defense may be able to erase. Kentucky’s right there with the Bulldogs, returning nearly as much from a defense that finished in the Top 25 last season.

Teams with more work to do than most on that side of the ball are Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn. Most of those are recruiting well enough to weather the storm.

Your turn

Does anything in either of those lists jump out at you as being particularly important? Does anything in either of them not matter at all for other reasons? Tell us what you think.