Last week we looked at the last 15 years of Tennessee’s SP+ data and found that the Vols’ 2020 projection in that metric would be a season most similar to 2009, 2012, and what became of 2016. The common thread in those years: you came to kickoff almost every single week believing the Vols had a real chance to win.
If the 2020 Vols had a real chance to win every Saturday, from Furman to Alabama, they would be on a short list in Tennessee’s recent past. In the 11 seasons since Phillip Fulmer left the sideline, the Vols have been a three-possession underdog at kickoff 17 times (via closing lines at covers.com). Only in 2015 and 2016 did the Vols escape a three-possession line the entire year. And only in the other two best-comparison SP+ years – Lane Kiffin’s 2009 and Derek Dooley’s final campaign in 2012 – were the Vols only a three-possession underdog once. Kiffin took the air out of a +30 line against Urban Meyer; Dooley’s Vols were +19 against Alabama in his final season.
Including Fulmer’s final 2008 season, the Vols lost 35 games by at least 17 points in the last 12 years. The only season in that stretch without a three-possession loss: 2015, which is the only season without a two-possession loss since 1998. The next year the Vols were blown out by Alabama but had no other three-possession losses.
But again, other than 2015 and 2016, losing multiple games by 17+ points has become the norm. The transition years from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt are particularly damning, with 11 three-possession losses in 2017 and 2018. Other than 2015 and 2016, the only seasons in the last 12 years with just two 17+ point losses:
- 2009: Dexter McClustered at Ole Miss, and an underrated Virginia Tech team pulled away late
- 2014: at #4 Oklahoma, at #3 Ole Miss. The Vols were feisty when Josh Dobbs took over, but also faced Georgia and Florida in down years; this was Missouri’s second division title year
Here too, I’d include 2012 in the conversation: the loss to Florida was technically three possessions at 37-20, but as you might not want to recall, the Vols led that thing midway through the third quarter before the defense became non-existent. They were blown out by Alabama. And they threw in the towel at Vanderbilt in Dooley’s final game.
So, if the 2020 Vols just played every opponent to within two possessions? They’d join only 2015 as the only Vol squad to do so since…2001! And once you start going backwards from there, you’re on a first-name basis with the three-possession losses in the 90’s: Nebraska, two losses in The Swamp plus a Florida loss in Knoxville featuring Todd Helton, and two weird bowl blowouts to Penn State. That’s the entire list of 17+ point losses in the 90’s.
Have a chance to win every game/stay within two possessions, and 2020 would join 2015, 1998-2001, 1996, 1992, and 1990 in the last 30 years. So of course, it’s not the only benchmark for a successful season – the Vols did plenty of good in years when they got up on the wrong side of the bed one week. But it would be a clear step forward. And more than anything, for fans it’s about the value of that belief: “We have a chance to win this game.”