Expectations shift downward again this week, as Tennessee shows a bit of promise for the future but without changing the actual outcome and LSU begins to find itself. Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
The Vols after the bye
The Vols game against South Carolina was a mixed bag as far as expectations for the rest of the season go. On one hand, Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback added another element to the offense that gave it several second chances when things broke down. Guarantano also added some much-needed fire to the mix. On the other hand, the offense still broke down much more than anyone wanted it to and did so in some frustratingly familiar ways. Guarantano may provide some hope for the future, but my Magic 8 Ball says the answer to the question of how quickly that future arrives is murky.
So at this time, I’m not adjusting expectations for the Vols independently of their opponents.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia Tech (3-2, 2-1 ACC, RV)
- W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
- W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
- W3: At UCF (canceled)
- W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
- W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
- W6: Bye
- W7: Lost to #11 Miami, 25-24.
- W8: Wake Forest
- W9: At Clemson
- W10: At Virginia
- W11: Virginia Tech
- W12: At Duke
- W13: Georgia
The Yellow Jackets are one play in double overtime and one point away from being undefeated. They also have a lot of opportunities ahead of them with games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia coming up.
Indiana State (0-6, 0-3 MVFC, NR)
- W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
- W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
- W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
- W4: Bye
- W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
- W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
- W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
- W8: S Illinois
- W9: At Missouri State
- W10: Youngstown State
- W11: W Illinois
- W12: At Northern Iowa
Florida (3-3, 3-2 SEC, NR)
- W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
- W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
- W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
- W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
- W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
- W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
- W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
- W8: Bye
- W9: vs Georgia
- W10: At Missouri
- W11: At South Carolina
- W12: UAB
- W13: Florida State
Yes, that loss to the Gators keeps getting better and better.
UMass (0-6, 0-0 IND, NR)
- W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
- W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
- W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
- W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
- W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
- W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
- W7: Bye
- W8: At USF (canceled)
- W9: Ga Southern
- W10: Appalachian State
- W11: At Mississippi State
- W12: Maine
- W13: At BYU
Bye.
Georgia (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #3)
- W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
- W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
- W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
- W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
- W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
- W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
- W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
- W8: Bye
- W9: vs. #22 Florida
- W10: South Carolina
- W11: At #13 Auburn
- W12: Kentucky
- W13: At Georgia Tech
These guys just keep rolling.
South Carolina (5-2, 3-2 SEC, RV)
- W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
- W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
- W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
- W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
- W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
- W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
- W8: Bye
- W9: Vanderbilt
- W10: At #15 Georgia
- W11: #22 Florida
- W12: Wofford
- W13: #3 Clemson
Moving on.
The Vols’ future opponents
10/21/17: Alabama (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #1)
- W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
- W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
- W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
- W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
- W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
- W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
- W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
- W8: #25 Tennessee
- W9: Bye
- W10: #12 LSU
- W11: At Mississippi State
- W12: Mercer
- W13: At #13 Auburn
Expectations for a Vols win: The good news is that Georgia looks very similar to Alabama this year, so it’s like we’ve already played them once. The bad news is, well, you remember how that went. I’m moving this game back down to 1%. So, yes, I’m saying there’s a chance.
| PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |||||
10/28/17: Kentucky (5-1, 2-1 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
- W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
- W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
- W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
- W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
- W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
- W7: Bye
- W8: At Mississippi State
- W9: #25 Tennessee
- W10: Ole Miss
- W11: At Vanderbilt
- W12: At #15 Georgia
- W13: #17 Lousiville
Expectations for a Vols win: Keeping this one at 50/50.
| PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 65 | 65 | 70 | 65 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |||||
11/4/17: Southern Miss (4-2, 2-1 C-USA, NR)
- W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
- W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
- W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
- W4: Bye
- W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
- W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
- W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
- W8: At LA Tech
- W9: UAB
- W10: At #25 Tennessee
- W11: At Rice
- W12: Charlotte
- W13: At Marshall
Expectations for a Vols win: Moving this one to 50/50. Sigh.
| PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 90 | 85 | 80 | 80 | 70 | 55 | 55 | 50 | |||||
11/11/17: Missouri (1-5, 0-4 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
- W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
- W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
- W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
- W5: Bye
- W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
- W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
- W8: Idaho
- W9: At UConn
- W10: #22 Florida
- W11: #25 Tennessee
- W12: At Vanderbilt
- W13: At Arkansas
Expectations for a Vols win: Leaving this one at 50/50, too.
| PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 70 | 65 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |||||
11/18/17: LSU (5-2, 2-1 SEC, #24)
- W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
- W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
- W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
- W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
- W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
- W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
- W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
- W8: At Ole Miss
- W9: Bye
- W10: At #1 Alabama
- W11: Arkansas
- W12: At #25 Tennessee
- W13: Texas A&M
Expectations for a Vols win: Oh, look. These guys are ranked again. Nice. Changing this back down to 30%.
| PREDICTIONS – LSU | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 25 | 25 | 25 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 30 | |||||
11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC, NR)
- W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
- W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
- W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
- W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
- W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
- W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
- W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
- W8: Bye
- W9: At South Carolina
- W10: W Kentucky
- W11: Kentucky
- W12: Missouri
- W13: At #25 Tennessee
Expectations for a Vols win: Another 50/50 game for me.
| PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT | ||||||||||||
| W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
| 72 | 72 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |||||
All of that puts me at 5.31 wins. We’ll see whether anything changes.