Alabama’s offense may not be operating at 2018-2020 levels, but it’s still plenty capable. The Tide are third nationally at 7.49 yards per play (the Vols are seventh at 7.21). And their tests – at Texas, at Arkansas, Texas A&M – are comparable to our own. While the Aggies got most of the usual Bama upset script – turnovers, missed field goals, etc. – it’s the Texas performance that offers the most hope for a defense. The Longhorns forced Alabama to punt on six consecutive drives, unheard of in the second half of Nick Saban’s administration.
Against those Tua Tagovailoa teams, there was real truth in saying that any drive that didn’t end in a touchdown was success for a defense. This time around, the window of opportunity is certainly wider. And the good news there: Tennessee’s defense continues to be far more opportunistic than last year.
Tennessee’s Defense & Drive-Ending Success, 2021 vs 2022
- Third Down Conversions Allowed 2022: 32%, 33rd nationally
- Third Down Conversions Allowed 2021: 42%, 101st nationally
- Fourth Down Conversions Allowed 2022: 50%, 47th nationally
- Fourth Down Conversions Allowed 2021: 54%, 76th nationally
- Turnovers Forced 2022: 10, 36th nationally (7th among teams playing only five games)
- Turnovers Forced 2021: 16, 68th nationally
- Red Zone Scoring Percentage Allowed 2022: 65%, 7th nationally
- Red Zone Scoring Percentage Allowed 2021: 92%, 121st nationally
- Red Zone TD Percentage Allowed 2022: 40%, 12th nationally
- Red Zone TD Percentage Allowed 2021: 72%, 119th nationally
Assumptions we might’ve developed about what kind of defense a Josh Heupel team will play? Those were clearly based too much on year one. In every way, this Tennessee defense is not only better, but downright great in crucial areas.
Teams have gone for it on fourth down 16 times against the Vols, the second-highest total in the nation among teams playing just five games. Add this odd fact into the mix: Alabama has only gone for it on fourth down eight times this year, and three of them came against Louisiana-Monroe. Will Bama operate with the same urgency in going for it against the Vols? Or will they assume their own defense will handle it (and, from their perspective, why wouldn’t they)?
In their biggest games, how many times did defenses get off the field without giving up a touchdown against the Crimson Tide?
Alabama Offense Drive Results vs Texas, Arkansas & Texas A&M
| Opponent | TDs | FGs | TOs | Punts | 4th |
| Texas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 12 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
This, of course, is around 50% Bryce Young and 50% Jalen Milroe. But given the success Texas’ defense had, it really balances out overall. There have been a decent number of opportunities to get off the field for teams who can take advantage, and the Vols have been not just better, but really good at getting off the field.
So, just for fun…
Tennessee Offense Drive Results vs Pitt, Florida & LSU
| Opponent | TDs | FGs | TOs | Punts | 4th |
| Pitt | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Florida | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| LSU | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 12 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
We expect Tennessee’s offense to have its moments. But Tennessee’s defense could find themselves making more of those moments than we might have thought possible just a few short weeks ago.