We’ve been including a Top 25 in our Gameday on Rocky Top preseason magazine for a couple of years now. Last year, our biggest miss was Florida State (preseason No. 4), which lost its quarterback in the first game and finished only 7-6. We also missed on Michigan (preseason No. 15), Louisville (preseason No. 16), Texas (preseason No. 18), and West Virginia (preseason No. 20), and no team that we ranked outside of the Top 20 actually finished in the Top 25.
But . . . we actually did pretty well as far as these things go. Most of our Top 10 finished the season in the Top 12, and with the exception of FSU, those that didn’t weren’t too far off at No. 16 (Washington, preseason No. 8), No. 14 (Oklahoma State, preseason No. 9), and No. 18 (LSU, preseason No. 10).
Here’s our preseason Top 25 for the upcoming 2018 season, as we published it in the magazine but with some updated comments in italics.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama seems to have developed an immunity to the kind of attrition that usually destroys other programs. Its inoculation is a cocktail of elite coaching and elite recruiting.
So yeah, there’s a competition at quarterback between Jalen Hurts, who got them to the national championship, and Tua Tagovailoa, who won it. [UPDATE: It’s looking like Tagovailoa is going to be the guy.] And they lose three starting receivers and a running back.
And yes, it’s even worse on defense. Yada, yada, yada.
But as always, there’s plenty of talent on the sideline, so they’ll not only be fine, they’ll thrive.
Saban does have a new offensive coordinator and will be entrusting his prized defense to the team’s third new defensive coordinator in four years, so if there’s a vulnerability, maybe it’s there.
But with Damien Harris at running back, a talented receiving corps, an experienced offensive line, and a defense as salty as ever, expect Alabama to hit a speed bump and then still arrive at College Football Playoff again anyway.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Urban Meyer has things rolling in Columbus, having won at least 11 games in each of his six seasons as a Buckeye. His challenge heading into the 2018 season is the same as it always is – find the right talent on the roster to replace the talent departing.
The greatest challenge this season is replacing quarterback J.T. Barrett, but the offensive line also loses two All-Americans, and the defense loses its share of guys, too.
The competition to replace Barrett is between Dwayne Haskins, Joe Burrow [UPDATE: Burrow is transferring to LSU], and Tate Martell, but Haskins appears to have the edge in the early running to take the reins as a sophomore. Whoever wins will have the luxury of a solid supporting cast with running back J.K. Dobbins and the top six receivers all returning.
This year’s schedule includes road trips to Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue, and an out-of-conference contest with TCU. But the Buckeyes appear to be the favorites to win the Big 10 this fall.
3. Clemson Tigers
Like Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney is quickly becoming a master of managing team attrition by way of elite recruiting. He’s having to contend with early departures to the NFL again this year, but his cupboard is well-stocked.
The best news for Swinney, though, is that his offense doesn’t require much re-stocking this fall. Quarterback Kelly Bryant returns, as do running backs Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster. The receiving corps may be the best in the nation, with Hunter Renfrow, Tee Higgins, and Amari Rodgers all returning. The offensive line is missing three starters, but Mitch Hyatt is back to keep things under control.
The defense will have to re-tool a bit, but it will do so around star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
The schedule includes road trips to Florida State and out-of-conference opponent Texas A&M, but isn’t particularly problematic, and Clemson is the favorite to win its fourth consecutive ACC title this season.
4. Georgia Bulldogs
In Kirby Smart’s second year, he had his Georgia Bulldogs team just one play away from winning it all, but what they couldn’t finish on the field, they finished on the recruiting trail, knocking Alabama out of the top spot in the recruiting rankings.
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are gone, but Georgia stands ready to unleash a three-headed monster at running back in D’Andre Swift, Brian Herrien, and Elijah Holyfield. Jake Fromm is back at quarterback, and although they lose receiver Javon Wims, they return Terry Godwin and Mecole Hardman.
On defense, the Bulldogs will miss Butkus Award Winner Roquan Smith and a bushel full of other terrific players, but can choose their replacements from among a large group of talent.
The Bulldogs have questions, but they also have answers, so we expect Georgia to represent the SEC East in Atlanta again this fall.
5. Washington Huskies
Chris Petersen’s Huskies have won 10 and 12 games each of the past two seasons and seem like they could take that final step into greatness this fall.
Any departures from last year’s team are offset by the return of Jake Browning, who is back for his senior season as a four-year starter. He’ll be joined by running back Myles Gaskin, who’s had three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and fellow back Salvon Ahmed. The receiving corps returns Chico McClatcher and tight end Hunter Bryant, and the line returns Trey Adams.
On defense, the key guys returning include linebacker Ryan Bowman, cornerback Byron Murphy, and safety Taylor Rapp.
The Huskies open the season against non-conference opponent Auburn, which will be an intriguing game for both teams, and they get Stanford at home. Expect Washington to be the Pac-12 team most likely to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff this season.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma really couldn’t have asked for much more out of Lincoln Riley’s first year replacing the legendary Bob Stoops as the Sooners’ head coach. Maybe you’d want a bit more defense, but losing in double-overtime in the College Football Playoff Semifinal in your first season is not bad.
Now, though, Riley is going to have to do it without quarterback Baker Mayfield and lineman Orlando Brown. The role of Mayfield will now be played by Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray. He’ll be joined by running backs Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon, receivers Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb, and three starters along one of the nation’s best offensive lines.
The defense loses Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year Ogbonnia Okoronkwo as well as several other key players, but they have capable guys ready to step up.
The Sooners open the 2018 season against Lane Kiffin’s FAU squad and then host UCLA before commencing conference play. They are the favorites to win the Big 12.
7. Miami Hurricanes
Most expected Mark Richt to have success as the head coach at Miami, but few believed he would find it in his first season. Despite finishing with three consecutive losses last year, Richt’s team finished first in the ACC Coastal division and challenged Clemson for the ACC title. They could be even better this year, as they return a great deal of talent from last year’s squad.
The offense loses a few key pieces but returns quarterback Malik Rosier this fall, and he’ll be joined in the backfield by running backs Travis Homer and Lorenzo Lingard. The Hurricanes should also get receiver Ahmmon Richards back from injury.
Miami kicks off the 2018 season with a huge game at Jerry World against the LSU Tigers. They also have a late road trip to play the Virginia Tech Hokies, but the rest of the schedule is quite manageable. They’re probably still a recruiting class or two away from catching Clemson for the ACC title, but they are well on their way.
8. Auburn Tigers
Auburn nearly lost head coach Gus Malzahn to Arkansas last season, but upped the ante to keep him. Good thing, too, because they’re going to need him this fall.
The Tigers beat both Georgia and Alabama last year but got left out of the playoff when they lost the rematch to the Bulldogs. Heading into 2018, they have to replace some key guys, as the NFL has swooped in to snatch up running backs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway, linebacker Jeff Holland, and defensive back Carlton Davis.
The Tigers are fortunate to have quarterback Jarrett Stidham back, though, and he’s fortunate to have most of his receiving corps return. Kam Martin takes over at running back for Johnson and Pettway.
Auburn’s toughest conference games are all on the road this fall, as they have to travel to take on Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State. They also added a tough out-of-conference game with Washington this season.
All of that will make it a challenge for the Tigers in 2018.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish finished the 2017 season with a 10-3 record, but a 2-2 November headlined by an embarrassing loss to Miami really seemed to put a damper on the season.
Now, they head into 2018 with several challenges. The team must replace two standout linemen in Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey. Also gone are running back Josh Adams, receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, and defensive coordinator Mike Elko.
It’s not all bad news for Notre Dame, though. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush returns, as does Ian Book, who will compete with him for the starting position. Whoever wins the job, he’ll have a talented group of receivers to throw to, provided the new offensive line can give them time to connect.
Notre Dame opens the season against Michigan and also has games scheduled with Virginia Tech, USC, and Florida State. They could get 10 wins again this season, but they’ll have to solve their issues in the trenches first.
10. Wisconsin Badgers
Paul Chryst’s Wisconsin team is a model of consistency, regularly winning the Big Ten West and competing with Ohio State for the conference title. If they could only take care of business in the championship game, they’d be positioned for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Badgers have to re-tool their defense this season, but nearly everybody is back on offense. Leading the way is quarterback Alex Hornibrook and a wide receiving corps featuring Quintez Cephus, A.J. Taylor, Danny Davis, and Kendric Pryor. The passing game will be complemented by the return of running back Jonathan Taylor fresh off an excellent first season. In all, the offense returns 10 of 11 starters.
The defense has more of a challenge heading into this season, as it loses two ends, two linebackers, and three defensive backs. But standout linebacker T.J. Edwards returns.
With most of the rest of the Big Ten firepower residing in the East, Wisconsin has a relatively easy path to the Big Ten championship game.
11. USC Trojans
Despite some serious challenges heading into the 2018 season, head coach Clay Helton has the Trojans well-positioned to compete for the Pac-12 South.
The biggest test for Helton and his team this season is replacing quarterback Sam Darnold, who’s left for the NFL. He’s not the only departure, though, as running back Ronald Jones, receiver Deontay Burnett, and defensive lineman Rasheem Green have all also headed for the NFL.
The quarterback position is an open competition between JT Daniels, Matt Fink, Jack Sears, and Thomas Holden. Whoever wins the job will have all five offensive line starters and running back Stephen Carr back in the lineup. The offense also returns receiver Tyler Vaughns, and the defense returns lineman Christian Rector, linebacker Cameron Smith, and defensive backs Iman Marshall and Jack Jones.
The schedule isn’t too troubling this fall, although USC does have to travel to Stanford, Texas, Utah, and UCLA. But the race for the Pac-12 South is wide open.
12. Michigan Wolverines
The expectations arrived on campus the same time Jim Harbaugh did, but the results are running late, as the Wolverines are coming off a disappointing 8-5 season.
Michigan got some good news this spring when the NCAA officially permitted quarterback Shea Patterson to play immediately after transferring from Ole Miss. Patterson threw for 2,259 yards and 17 touchdowns in only seven games last season for the Rebels before a knee injury sidelined him. He’s now both healthy and eligible to play, and he should make a huge difference for the Wolverines immediately.
The top receivers all return, as do the three main running backs. There are some holes to fill along the offensive line, but Harbaugh’s hired a new coach to get that figured out.
The problem, though, is that the schedule is not particularly friendly to the Wolverines. They have road dates with Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State, and they play Wisconsin from the West division.
13. Michigan State Spartans
A 2016 season that ended with the Spartans posting a 3-9 record turned out to be an anomaly, as they rebounded in 2017 to finish 10-3 with wins over Top 10 opponents Michigan and Penn State. The key to the season seemed to be the discovery of quarterback Brian Lewerke, who threw for 2,793 yards and 20 touchdowns and ran for 559 yards and 5 touchdowns as a sophomore last year.
Lewerke returns this fall, as does leading rusher LJ Scott and receivers Felton Davis, Darrell Stewart, and Cody White. The offensive line returns four starters.
The situation is similar for the defense that gave up only 20 points per game last season. They return linebacker Joe Bachie, end Kenny Willekes, safety David Dowell, and cornerback Josiah Scott.
The Spartans appear well-positioned to compete with Ohio State and Penn State for the Big Ten East Division title this fall. They avoid Wisconsin in cross-divisional play and get both Ohio State and Michigan at home
14. Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State head coach James Franklin has his Nittany Lions coming off consecutive 11-win seasons. If he wants to repeat or improve on that, he’ll have to do it despite some major departures.
The biggest loss, of course, is running back Saquon Barkley, who left early for the NFL. Fortunately, quarterback Trace McSorley is back, but he’s missing two pass-catchers and offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, who left to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State.
Having McSorley back is crucial, as he threw for 3,570 yards and 28 touchdowns and rushed for 491 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Former 5-star running back prospect Miles Sanders joins McSorley in the backfield. And the defense should be fine despite the departures of three key defenders in Jason Cabinda, Marcus Allen, and Grant Haley.
The Nittany Lions have to play Michigan on the road, but they get Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin at home.
15. Stanford Cardinal
Stanford coach David Shaw had to be happy when Heisman Trophy finalist Bryce Love decided to forgo the NFL and return for his senior season. As a junior last fall, Love ran for over 2,000 yards.
Also returning to the Cardinal this season is quarterback K.J. Costello, who threw for 1,573 yards and 14 touchdowns in 11 games last year. He was out this spring rehabbing an injury but is expected back in time for the fall.
Costello has each of his four leading receivers from last year back as well, and all of that offense will be operating behind an offensive line that loses only one starter in David Bright.
The defense is in worse shape, however. It wasn’t up to Stanford’s usual standards last season, and it loses several guys to the NFL.
Stanford’s 2018 fate may be decided by the end of September, as the opening month includes a visit from USC and road trips to Oregon and Notre Dame.
16. Florida State Seminoles
New Seminoles head coach Willie Taggart should enjoy a bit of a honeymoon this year in Tallahassee, but he shouldn’t expect it to last long. The good news for Taggart is that he’s getting his two offensive skill position guys back this fall in quarterback Deondre Francois and star running back Cam Akers. Francois suffered a season-ending injury against Alabama in the first game last season, but should be back to 100% by the time fall rolls around. In his absence, James Blackman threw for 2,230 yards, so he may have something to say about the starting position as well.
There are holes to plug in the receiving corps, but FSU’s offensive line returns nearly intact. The defense is missing several key guys, including Josh Sweat and Derwin James, but still has several solid options on that side of the ball.
Florida State gets Clemson at home this season, but they have to take on Miami, Notre Dame, Louisville, and NC State on the road. Eight or nine wins this season for Taggart should be fine, but then the honeymoon’s over.
17. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech finished 9-4 and just behind Miami in the ACC Coastal division last season. Now, Justin Fuente is hoping to make another run at the division title, and he’s relying on quarterback Josh Jackson to help get it done.
Jackson threw for 2,991 yards and 20 touchdowns last year and ran for 324 yards and 6 touchdowns. Fuente has a reputation for developing quarterbacks, so it’s not unrealistic to expect even more from Jackson his second year. He’ll have several receivers to throw to and running back Deshawn McClease to keep the defenses honest.
In addition, Bud Foster’s defense should be as strong as usual despite a few defections to the NFL.
Expect the Hokies to challenge Miami in the ACC Coastal again this season. Their season starts in a hurry with a road trip to Florida State, but, with the exception of an out-of-conference game against Notre Dame in October, the rest of the way in the ACC is pretty smooth sailing until Miami comes to town in late November.
18. Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies arguably made the hire of the season when they replaced Kevin Sumlin with Jimbo Fisher, who won a national championship with Florida State in 2013.
Fisher, though, is going to have to figure out what to do about the departure of do-everything, All-SEC receiver Christian Kirk, who left early for the NFL. The Aggies also lose the team’s second-leading receiver in Damion Ratley and running back Keith Ford.
The good news, though, is that both Nick Starkel and Kellen Mond are back to compete for the quarterback spot, and Trayveon Williams is in line to take over for Ford. On the other side of the ball, Kingsley Keke returns to the defensive line and the linebacking corps and secondary all seem to be in good shape.
But then there’s the not-so-small matter of the schedule, which ramps up early with a game against Clemson and features a brutal road slate with trips to Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks are coming off a 9-4 record that earned them second place in the SEC East, and they’re hoping to improve on that success this season.
The most damaging losses to the team this fall are the departures of tight end Hayden Hurst, who left early for the NFL, and tackling machine Skai Moore at linebacker. They also lose several guys in the secondary.
But South Carolina returns almost all of its offensive production from last year, including quarterback Jake Bentley. They’re also expecting Samuel to be able to rejoin a solid receiving corps this fall. At running back, four capable guys will share the load. The losses at secondary will be somewhat mitigated by the return of Rashad Fenton and Jamyest Williams.
It’s probably wishful thinking to believe that the Gamecocks can get past Georgia to win the SEC East, but they are likely the favorite to finish second again this fall.
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs could have been reeling from the departure of Dan Mullen for the Florida job, but they seem to have landed on their feet with a solid hire in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead had been serving as Penn State’s offensive coordinator and had developed quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley to national prominence.
Moorhead also walks into a pretty stable situation as a new head coach, as Mississippi State returns the most offensive production and second-most defensive production in the SEC.
Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who spent the offseason rehabbing a terrible injury suffered in last year’s Egg Bowl, is expected back this fall, but even if he’s not, the Bulldogs have a capable backup in Keytaon Thompson. They also return Aeris Williams at running back, most of their receiving corps, and everyone on the offensive line except Martinas Rankin.
21. LSU Tigers
The Tigers posted a 9-4 record last fall, beating Auburn on the way to a 6-2 SEC record, but also losing to Troy.
Heading into the 2018 season, they have the distinction of losing more production than any other team in the SEC. Gone on offense are quarterback Danny Etling, running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams, receiver DJ Chark, and offensive linemen Toby Weathersby and Will Clapp. On defense, they lose two linemen, three linebackers, and two defensive backs.
All of that said, they do still have talent on the roster. Myles Brennan is the favorite to take over at quarterback [UPDATE: QB is an all-out competition now and includes Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow], and Nick Brossette will likely be the running back. The receiving corps gets a boost from Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles, and the defense still has rising star defensive back Greedy Williams and linebacker Devin White.
The Tigers kick things off with a trip to Jerry World to play Miami, and they get Auburn on the road and a visit from Georgia.
22. Boise State Broncos
The Broncos finished the 2018 season 11-3 and did it primarily on the strength of a defense that held opponents to only 22.9 points per game. They enter 2018 as the favorite to earn the coveted Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six.
If they do it, it will likely be largely for the same reason, as the defense returns almost everyone except for linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, who left early for the NFL.
On offense, they also return quarterback Brett Rypien and running back Alexander Mattison. Rypien threw for 2,877 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, and Mattison ran for 1,086 yards and 12 touchdowns. They’re down a receiver in Cedrick Wilson, a tight end in Jake Roh, and a center in Mason Hampton, but they’re in great shape otherwise.
This year’s schedule features a road test at Oklahoma State in mid-September, so the Broncos will learn a lot about themselves and their season goals early. If they get past the Cowboys, they will likely roll all the way to New Year’s Day
23. Texas Longhorns
Tom Herman returns after leading the Longhorns to a bowl win in his first season, but is now contending with a handful of players departing early for the NFL. The offense, however, does return quarterback Sam Ehlinger, running back Daniel Young, and the team’s top three receivers from last year. The Longhorns have road trips to Kansas State and Oklahoma State this fall, but get USC, TCU, West Virginia, and Iowa State at home.
24. West Virginia Mountaineers
After posting a 10-3 record in 2016, Dana Holgorsen and West Virginia fell back to a 7-6 season last fall. The season started well, but they found they couldn’t win without quarterback Will Grier, who was injured for the last three games of the season. Grier is back this fall, though, and so are most of his go-to guys. They also added a transfer from Alabama at receiver.
They open their season against Tennessee and have road games at Iowa State, Texas, and Oklahoma State.
25. UCF Knights
Scott Frost had UCF absolutely humming last year, guiding them to a perfect 13-0 season. Frost is now the head coach at Nebraska, but most of the roster that played so well in 2017 is back, and they’ve hired Josh Heupel to hopefully keep the momentum going. Returning quarterback McKenzie Milton should be fun to watch again this fall.
The Knights will have opportunities to prove themselves with games at North Carolina and Memphis and a visit from Lane Kiffin and FAU.
Others receiving votes
TCU, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Arizona, Florida Atlantic, Florida, N.C. State