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Coaching continuity in the SEC over the past decade

Jim Chaney

Jim Chaney

It feels like I’ve written a lot about continuity on this site over the past couple of years. I’ve looked at in-season starter continuity in the SEC, in-season offensive line continuity for the Vols, and long-term coordinator continuity for the Vols. Funny thing is, putting it under the microscope often reveals that continuity doesn’t impact a team’s performance as much as you think it should.

For instance, the two conclusions from the post about in-season starter continuity in the SEC were (1) it probably matters at the quarterback position, but (2) it didn’t seem to be nearly as important at other positions. Other factors such overall talent, player development, and coaching mattered more. And when we dove into in-season offensive line continuity for the Vols, we found (1) that it improved in 2018 over an absolute disaster in 2017, but (2) it didn’t have much of an effect on the team’s ability to gain yards or score points. Either it didn’t matter or any gains in that area were undone by other factors.

And then last September, I looked at coordinator continuity for the Vols, which was a hallmark of the program under Phillip Fulmer from 1992-2008 but became a certifiable mess for the following decade. Until his final season as head coach, Fulmer had one defensive coordinator and two offensive coordinators over the course of 16 seasons. In the following 12 seasons, the Vols’ football program hired four new head coaches, five new offensive coordinators (one of them twice at two different times), and seven new defensive coordinators.

But that didn’t really answer the question of whether coordinator churn, generally speaking, was merely a result of poor performance on the field or whether it might actually contribute to poor performance. As a Tennessee fan longing for the success the program enjoyed during most of the Fulmer Era, it felt more like a cause than an effect, but over the past couple of days, I decided to look at the same data league-wide. After cursing every SEC team’s media guide for listing its assistant coaches alphabetically instead of by year or position, I finally wrangled everything into one place so I could draw a firm conclusion as to whether coaching churn was good or bad for a team.

And now I finally have a definitive answer: It depends.

The entire data set is below for you to look at yourself, but here’s the summary:

Offense Better Offense Worse Defense Better Defense Worse
HC, OC, DC 7 8 10 5
OC, DC 3 4 5 2
OC only 11 8
DC only 13 9

Basically, by replacing offensive coordinators over the past seven to nine years, SEC teams have been about as likely to make things worse as they were to make things better, at least in the first year after the change. They fared a little better replacing defensive coordinators, but programs often went backward then, as well.

Okay, but what about the second year in a new coordinator’s tenure? They have to get better once they hit their stride and all the players get up to speed in the new system, right?

Not necessarily, at least as to the offense. Out of 24 instances over the last nine seasons where a new SEC offensive coordinator was around for a second year in the same position, the offenses got worse exactly the same number of times as they got better.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t an answer to the question of whether that shiny new coach is going to make your favorite team better or worse. There is an answer. It’s just that the answer is that it depends. It depends on the guy you hired. It depends on the guy he’s replacing and how good the team has recently been at the thing you’ve hired the new guy to do. It depends on the roster and the relative health of the ecosystem into which all of this newness is introduced. It just depends.

Continuity, then, is like a garbage-in, garbage-out computer system. It only produces the results you want if the data’s good.

The good news for Vols fans is that the data looks good. All of the other factors seem to be improving, and the guys on staff have a track record of being on the positive side of the data set.

Jeremy Pruitt

Because our analysis is limited to SEC head coaches and coordinators, it doesn’t include anything worthwhile on second-year Vols’ defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley. It’s probably safe to assume, though, that Jeremy Pruitt has as much or more to do with Tennessee’s defense as does Ansley, and we do have numbers on Pruitt.

When Georgia hired Pruitt as defensive coordinator in 2014, the Bulldogs had just held opponents to 376 yards per game the prior year. Pruitt improved total defense his first season, holding opponents to 337 yards per game in 2014. He improved it again in 2015, this time holding opponents to 306 yards per game. After two seasons under Pruitt, Georgia’s defense was allowing 70 fewer yards per game than it had been before he arrived.

When Pruitt arrived at Alabama in 2016, he did the same thing even though Alabama didn’t have much room to improve. The Tide’s defense had held opponents to 276 yards per game in 2015, and in Pruitt’s first season, they held opponents to 262. He squeezed out another couple of yards in his second season, improving to 260 before taking the job at Tennessee.

Jim Chaney

Jim Chaney’s record at three different stops in the SEC during the same time frame is also one of improvement. Hired at Tennessee in 2009 by Lane Kiffin, the offense immediately improved an impressive 115 yards per game, from 269 to 384. As a holdover from Kiffin’s staff when Derek Dooley and company arrived in 2010, Chaney’s offense actually took a small step backward (20 yards per game) in his second season and then another of 31 yards in 2011, although the blame for that one probably lies at the feet of early injuries to Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter. In 2012, Chaney and his offense hit their stride and put up 476 yards per game, somehow managing to stay 5 yards ahead of Sal Sunseri’s defense. To put a bow on it, Chaney’s offense at Tennessee improved 115 yards in his first season, then went down 20 and down another 31 before going back up 143.

Hired at Arkansas in 2013, Chaney’s offense had 357 yards in his first season. His offense improved to 406 yards per game in his second season before leaving for Pittsburgh, where he turned Nathan Peterman into an NFL quarterback.

When Georgia hired Chaney in 2016, he again immediately improved the offense, this time from 377 yards per game to 385 in his first season and then again to 435 in his second season. By his third season in 2018, the offense was cranking out 465 yards per game. And then he returned to Rocky Top.

For more on Jim Chaney, check out this post, a re-publication of an article Will wrote for the magazine last year:

Conclusion

Teams don’t always get better when they hire new coaches. Generally speaking, they tend to get worse as often as they get better. Whether they get better or worse depends on a variety of factors, and the guy being hired is chief among them. History shows that both Pruitt and Chaney are both guys that make things better when you hire them. They tend to improve their teams immediately and then continue to do so in their second and third years and beyond.

In case you’re interested, here’s the entire list of head coaches and coordinators for every SEC team since 2011, along with the teams’ respective total offense and total defense numbers where available from the NCAA.

Team Year HC OC DC CHURN TO TD O-Change D-Change
Tennessee 2008 Phillip Fulmer Dave Clawson John Chavis OC 269 264
Tennessee 2009 Lane Kiffin Jim Chaney Monte Kiffin HC, OC, DC 384 319 115 -55
Tennessee 2010 Derek Dooley Jim Chaney Justin Wilcox HC, DC 364 382 -20 -63
Tennessee 2011 Derek Dooley Jim Chaney Justin Wilcox 333 341 -31 42
Tennessee 2012 Derek Dooley Jim Chaney Sal Sunseri DC 476 471 143 -131
Tennessee 2013 Butch Jones Mike Bajakian John Jancek HC, OC, DC 353 418 -123 53
Tennessee 2014 Butch Jones Mike Bajakian John Jancek 371 365 17 54
Tennessee 2015 Butch Jones Mike DeBord John Jancek OC 422 362 52 3
Tennessee 2016 Butch Jones Mike DeBord Bob Shoop DC 444 449 21 -87
Tennessee 2017 Butch Jones Larry Scott Bob Shoop OC 291 413 -153 36
Tennessee 2018 Jeremy Pruitt Tyson Helton Kevin Sherrer HC, OC, DC 326 377 34 36
Tennessee 2019 Jeremy Pruitt Jim Chaney Derrick Ansley OC, DC 360 340 34 38
Florida 2010 Urban Meyer Steve Addazio Teryl Austin
Florida 2011 Will Muschamp Charlie Weis Dan Quinn HC, OC, DC
Florida 2012 Will Muschamp Brent Pease Dan Quinn OC 334 288
Florida 2013 Will Muschamp Brent Pease D.J. Durkin DC 317 314 -18 -27
Florida 2014 Will Muschamp Kurt Roper D.J. Durkin OC 368 330 51 -16
Florida 2015 Jim McElwain Doug Nussmeier Geoff Collins HC, OC, DC 334 310 -34 20
Florida 2016 Jim McElwain Doug Nussmeier Geoff Collins 344 293 10 17
Florida 2017 Jim McElwain Doug Nussmeier Randy Shannon DC 336 349 -8 -56
Florida 2018 Dan Mullen Billy Gonzalez/John Hevesy Todd Grantham HC, OC, DC 427 343 91 6
Florida 2019 Dan Mullen Billy Gonzalez/John Hevesy Todd Grantham 431 305 4 39
Georgia 2011 Mark Richt Mike Bobo Todd Grantham
Georgia 2012 Mark Richt Mike Bobo Todd Grantham 468 358
Georgia 2013 Mark Richt Mike Bobo Todd Grantham 484 376 17 -18
Georgia 2014 Mark Richt Mike Bobo Jeremy Pruitt DC 458 337 -26 38
Georgia 2015 Mark Richt Brian Schottenheimer Jeremy Pruitt OC 377 306 -81 31
Georgia 2016 Kirby Smart Jim Chaney Mel Tucker HC, OC, DC 385 328 8 -22
Georgia 2017 Kirby Smart Jim Chaney Mel Tucker 435 295 51 33
Georgia 2018 Kirby Smart Jim Chaney Dan Lanning DC 465 314 30 -19
Georgia 2019 Kirby Smart James Coley Dan Lanning OC 408 276 -57 39
Kentucky 2011 Joker Phillips Randy Sanders Rick Minter
Kentucky 2012 Joker Phillips Randy Sanders Rick Minter 315 391
Kentucky 2013 Mark Stoops Neal Brown D.J. Eliot HC, OC, DC 341 427 26 -36
Kentucky 2014 Mark Stoops Neal Brown D.J. Eliot 384 407 43 20
Kentucky 2015 Mark Stoops Shannon Dawson D.J. Eliot OC 372 394 -12 13
Kentucky 2016 Mark Stoops Eddie Gran D.J. Eliot OC 420 434 48 -40
Kentucky 2017 Mark Stoops Eddie Gran Matt House DC 350 427 -70 7
Kentucky 2018 Mark Stoops Eddie Gran Matt House 361 338 11 89
Kentucky 2019 Mark Stoops Eddie Gran Brad White DC 393 325 32 13
LSU 2011 Les Miles Greg Studrawa John Chavis
LSU 2012 Les Miles Greg Studrawa John Chavis 374 308
LSU 2013 Les Miles Cam Cameron John Chavis OC 453 341 79 -33
LSU 2014 Les Miles Cam Cameron John Chavis 388 317 -66 24
LSU 2015 Les Miles Cam Cameron Kevin Steele DC 437 347 50 -30
LSU 2016 Les Miles/Ed Orgeron Steve Ensminger Dave Aranda HC, OC, DC 423 314 -14 33
LSU 2017 Ed Orgeron Matt Canada Dave Aranda OC 411 316 -12 -2
LSU 2018 Ed Orgeron Steve Ensminger Dave Aranda OC 402 339 -9 -23
LSU 2019 Ed Orgeron Steve Ensminger Dave Aranda 569 344 166 -5
Mississippi State 2011 Dan Mullen Les Koenning Chris Wilson
Mississippi State 2012 Dan Mullen Les Koenning Chris Wilson 382 387
Mississippi State 2013 Dan Mullen Les Koenning Geoff Collins DC 434 349 53 38
Mississippi State 2014 Dan Mullen Billy Gonzales/John Hevesy Geoff Collins OC 514 424 79 -75
Mississippi State 2015 Dan Mullen Billy Gonzales/John Hevesy Manny Diaz DC 461 391 -53 33
Mississippi State 2016 Dan Mullen Billy Gonzales/John Hevesy Peter Sirmon DC 440 459 -20 -68
Mississippi State 2017 Dan Mullen Billy Gonzales/John Hevesy Todd Grantham DC 419 306 -22 153
Mississippi State 2018 Joe Moorhead Luke Getsy Bob Shoop HC, OC, DC 397 263 -21 43
Mississippi State 2019 Joe Moorhead Andrew Breiner/Terry Richardson Bob Shoop OC 400 399 3 -136
Ole Miss 2011 Houston Nutt David Lee Tyrone Nix
Ole Miss 2012 Hugh Freeze Matt Luke/Dan Werner Dave Wommack/Wesley McGriff
Ole Miss 2013 Hugh Freeze Matt Luke/Dan Werner Dave Wommack/Jason Jones 473 371
Ole Miss 2014 Hugh Freeze Matt Luke/Dan Werner Dave Wommack/Jason Jones 419 329 -54 42
Ole Miss 2015 Hugh Freeze Matt Luke/Dan Werner Dave Wommack/Jason Jones 518 386 99 -57
Ole Miss 2016 Hugh Freeze Matt Luke/Dan Werner Dave Wommack/Jason Jones 464 461 -53 -76
Ole Miss 2017 Matt Luke Phil Longo Wesley McGriff/Jason Jones HC, OC, DC 462 460 -2 2
Ole Miss 2018 Matt Luke Phil Longo Wesley McGriff/Jason Jones 511 483 48 -24
Ole Miss 2019 Matt Luke Rich Rodriguez Mike MacIntyre OC, DC 445 417 -65 67
Missouri 2011 Gary Pinkel David Yost Dave Steckel
Missouri 2012 Gary Pinkel David Yost Dave Steckel
Missouri 2013 Gary Pinkel Josh Henson Dave Steckel OC 491 418
Missouri 2014 Gary Pinkel Josh Henson Dave Steckel 367 346 -124 71
Missouri 2015 Gary Pinkel Josh Henson Barry Odom DC 281 302 -86 44
Missouri 2016 Barry Odom Josh Heupel DeMontie Cross/Ryan Walters HC, OC, DC 501 480 220 -178
Missouri 2017 Barry Odom Josh Heupel Barry Odom/Ryan Walters DC 502 414 2 66
Missouri 2018 Barry Odom Derek Dooley Ryan Walters OC, DC 482 389 -20 26
Missouri 2019 Barry Odom Derek Dooley Ryan Walters 374 312 -108 77
South Carolina 2011 Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier Ellis Johnson
South Carolina 2012 Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier, Jr./Shawn Elliott Lorenzo Ward
South Carolina 2013 Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier, Jr./Shawn Elliott Lorenzo Ward 452 350
South Carolina 2014 Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier, Jr./Shawn Elliott Lorenzo Ward 443 433 -9 -83
South Carolina 2015 Steve Spurrier G.A. Mangus Jon Hoke/Lorenzo Ward OC, DC 362 430 -81 3
South Carolina 2016 Will Muschamp Bryan McClendon/Kurt Roper Travaris Robinson HC, OC, DC 348 412 -15 18
South Carolina 2017 Will Muschamp Bryan McClendon Travaris Robinson 337 367 -10 45
South Carolina 2018 Will Muschamp Bryan McClendon Travaris Robinson 426 424 89 -57
South Carolina 2019 Will Muschamp Bryan McClendon Travaris Robinson 372 393 -54 31
Texas A&M 2011 Mike Sherman Tim DeRuyter
Texas A&M 2012 Kevin Sumlin Kliff KIngsbury Mark Snyder
Texas A&M 2013 Kevin Sumlin Jake Spavital Mark Snyder 538 476
Texas A&M 2014 Kevin Sumlin Jake Spavital Mark Snyder 455 451 -83 25
Texas A&M 2015 Kevin Sumlin Jake Spavital John Chavis DC 425 380 -31 71
Texas A&M 2016 Kevin Sumlin Noel Mazzone John Chavis OC 467 442 42 -62
Texas A&M 2017 Kevin Sumlin Noel Mazzone John Chavis 407 409 -60 33
Texas A&M 2018 Jimbo Fisher Darrell Dickey Mike Elko HC, OC, DC 472 348 65 60
Texas A&M 2019 Jimbo Fisher Darrell Dickey/Jay Graham Mike Elko 395 340 -77 8
Vanderbilt 2011 James Franklin John Donovan Bob Shoop
Vanderbilt 2012 James Franklin John Donovan Bob Shoop
Vanderbilt 2013 James Franklin John Donovan Bob Shoop 367 355
Vanderbilt 2014 Derek Mason Karl Dorrell David Kotulski HC, OC, DC 288 402 -78 -47
Vanderbilt 2015 Derek Mason Andy Ludwig Derek Mason OC, DC 327 351 38 52
Vanderbilt 2016 Derek Mason Andy Ludwig Derek Mason 356 408 29 -58
Vanderbilt 2017 Derek Mason Andy Ludwig Jason Tarver DC 351 393 -5 15
Vanderbilt 2018 Derek Mason Andy Ludwig Jason Tarver 411 439 60 -46
Vanderbilt 2019 Derek Mason Gerry Gdowski Jason Tarver OC 299 437 -112 2
Alabama 2011 Nick Saban Jim McElwain Kirby Smart
Alabama 2012 Nick Saban Doug Nussmeier Kirby Smart
Alabama 2013 Nick Saban Doug Nussmeier Kirby Smart 454 287
Alabama 2014 Nick Saban Lane Kiffin Kirby Smart OC 485 328 30 -42
Alabama 2015 Nick Saban Lane Kiffin Kirby Smart 427 276 -57 52
Alabama 2016 Nick Saban Lane Kiffin Jeremy Pruitt DC 455 262 28 15
Alabama 2017 Nick Saban Brian Daboll Jeremy Pruit OC 444 260 -11 1
Alabama 2018 Nick Saban Mike Locksley Tosh Lupoi OC, DC 522 320 78 -59
Alabama 2019 Nick Saban Steve Sarkisian Pete Golding OC, DC 511 325 -11 -5
Arkansas 2011 Bobby Petrino Garrick McGee Willy Robinson
Arkansas 2012 John L. Smith Paul Petrino Paul Haynes
Arkansas 2013 Bret Bielema Jim Chaney Chris Ash HC, OC, DC 357 413
Arkansas 2014 Bret Bielema Jim Chaney Robb Smith DC 406 323 49 90
Arkansas 2015 Bret Bielema Dan Enos Robb Smith OC 466 392 60 -68
Arkansas 2016 Bret Bielema Dan Enos Robb Smith 428 427 -37 -35
Arkansas 2017 Bret Bielema Dan Enos Paul Rhoads DC 373 438 -55 -12
Arkansas 2018 Chad Morris Joe Craddock John Chavis HC, OC, DC 336 413 -38 25
Arkansas 2019 Chad Morris Joe Craddock John Chavis 340 451 4 -38
Auburn 2011 Gene Chizik Gus Malzahn Ted Roof
Auburn 2012 Gene Chizik Scot Loeffler Brian VanGorder
Auburn 2013 Gus Malzahn Rhett Lashlee Ellis Johnson HC, OC, DC 501 421
Auburn 2014 Gus Malzahn Rhett Lashlee Ellis Johnson 485 399 -16 22
Auburn 2015 Gus Malzahn Rhett Lashlee Will Muschamp DC 370 405 -115 -6
Auburn 2016 Gus Malzahn Rhett Lashlee Kevin Steele DC 441 362 71 43
Auburn 2017 Gus Malzahn Chip Lindsey Kevin Steele OC 452 319 11 43
Auburn 2018 Gus Malzahn Chip Lindsey Kevin Steele 390 355 -62 -36
Auburn 2019 Gus Malzahn Kenny Dillingham Kevin Steele OC 407 337 17 18
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