Two weeks after facing one of the best defenses we’ve seen since playing both LSU and Alabama in 2011, the Vols get one of the best offenses we’ve seen in the last 15 years. The Crimson Tide are number one in offensive SP+ this year, and their 48.0 rating puts them in elite company among offenses the Vols have faced in the last 15 years.
In SP+, here are the 10 best offenses the Vols have seen since 2005. What have Tennessee defenses been able to do against units like this? Considering what the Vols have been since 2005, the answer is usually not much…but there is one sliver of hope if you want it.
(Full chart at the bottom of the post)
10-9. 2013 & 2012 Alabama
The A.J. McCarron Tide teams had no trouble with Sal Sunseri’s defense in 2012, then dominated in Butch Jones’ first year as well: 44 points in 2012, 45 points in 2013.
8. 2018 Georgia
The Dawgs led 24-0 after the first drive of the third quarter, but Tennessee’s defense forced consecutive stops to get it close again at 24-12. Georgia overwhelmed the defense on the following drive, then used a short field via fumble to get the final seven points in a 38-12 win.
7. 2015 Arkansas
Of the four games the 2015 Vols lost, all by one possession, the most honest defeat came to an 8-5 Arkansas team with three one possession losses of their own. The Hogs weren’t sexy, but they were ruthlessly efficient with Brandon Allen and Alex Collins. They only scored 24 points against us, but piled up 494 yards, turned away twice inside the 10 yard line late with a missed field goal and a fourth down stop.
5a/5b. 2013 Auburn & 2013 Oregon
The participants in the 2010 BCS title game were plenty good three years later. The Ducks Marcus Mariotaed the Vols in week two, going for a ridiculous 59 points and 687 yards. The Tigers made for a more compelling football game later in the season, thanks in part to a pick six just before halftime that pulled the Vols within seven at 27-20. But Tennessee would be outscored 28-3 from that point on.
4. 2019 Alabama
Most of these numbers belong to Tua Tagovailoa, who was of course knocked out of the Tennessee game then lost for the year the next month against Mississippi State. But the 2019 Tide are the only offense on this list to gain less than 400 yards against the Vols, and join 2015 Arkansas as the only ones to score less than 38 points. If you’re looking for hope, this is the best available option this week.
3. 2020 Alabama
Stay tuned.
2. 2007 Florida
Tim Tebow’s Heisman season included a one possession game and the Vols with the ball with five minutes to play in the third quarter. And then the Gators scored 31 unanswered points, first via an Arian Foster fumble returned for a score, ultimately winning 59-20 with 554 yards of offense…which was a whole lot worse in 2007 than it sounds today.
1. 2018 Alabama
For those of us wondering if Tua was as good as advertised before our first encounter, the answer was an emphatic yes: 58 points and 545 yards, and Bama hit 51 points with 13 minutes to play in the third quarter. If you’re looking for the worst case scenario Saturday, it’s this.
While the 2020 Tide offense isn’t quite at 2018 Tua levels yet, it’s also helpful that the 2020 Vol defense has come a long way from 2018. The thing that’s been hardest for me to remember this week is Tennessee’s performance against South Carolina and Missouri. For the moment, the Vols still have the second best defense in the SEC in SP+; it sure looked like it in the first half against Kentucky.
Any best case scenarios for the Vols, in general, include some version of, “Let’s see what happens when we quit turning it over,” especially on consecutive drives. It’s too much to ask this Vol defense to stop Alabama, especially when Georgia’s all-world defense just tried and failed. But we’ve already seen enough of a blueprint in this matchup last year. Tua was 11-of-12 before he got hurt, the one incompletion a costly red zone interception. But once he went out, Tennessee’s defense kept the Vols in the game with a third down sack, forcing a missed Alabama field goal, forcing and getting a 3rd-and-10 stop, then getting a 3rd-and-6 stop after a holding call gave Bama 2nd-and-14.
You’re not going to stop these guys often, so if you get them in third-and-long, you’ve got to make it count. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in third down conversions at 61.9%, in part because they’re so good on first and second down. How much can Tennessee’s defense take off from that number?
SP+ likes Bama to score 37 points on Saturday; no joke, Tennessee’s defense could give up 30+ and still feel like they did a pretty good job. They’ll need something from the offense, of course; it’s a good week for the 2018 Auburn gameplan, with Tennessee’s receivers winning one-on-one balls deep down the sideline. I don’t know who’s going to play the most number of snaps at quarterback for Tennessee, but it was Jarrett Guarantano on that day two years ago, so perhaps there’s something in this particular matchup that suits him a little more than what he’s seen the last two weeks.
This is a historically great Alabama offense. Can a relatively good Tennessee defense, at least in our recent history, get off the field enough times to make it interesting?
Here’s the full chart of the best offenses the Vols have seen in the last 15 years in SP+:
| Opponent | SP+ Offense | Pts Allowed | Yds Allowed |
| 2018 Alabama | 50.9 | 58 | 545 |
| 2007 Florida | 50.1 | 59 | 554 |
| 2020 Alabama | 48 | ||
| 2019 Alabama | 47.7 | 35 | 373 |
| 2013 Auburn | 46.8 | 55 | 479 |
| 2013 Oregon | 46.8 | 59 | 687 |
| 2015 Arkansas | 46.6 | 24 | 494 |
| 2018 Georgia | 45.9 | 38 | 441 |
| 2012 Alabama | 45.7 | 44 | 539 |
| 2013 Alabama | 45.6 | 45 | 479 |