Site icon Gameday on Rocky Top

Butch Jones: Comebacks, Blown Leads, and Pace of Play

Will Shelton
Butch Jones

Photo by Bryan Lynn, LC Action Photos.

In late September 2015, after two of the most difficult losses of the modern era, we researched how often the Vols had historically blown leads. In 17 years Phillip Fulmer’s teams blew a two-possession lead in a loss just six times:

In just his first four years, Butch Jones’ teams have also blown a two-possession lead in a loss six times:

Fulmer’s Vols never blew a two-possession lead in the fourth quarter. Jones’ Vols did it three times in a span of 13 games against Florida in 2014 and 2015 and Oklahoma in 2015. Before then you have to go back to 1986 to find a Tennessee squad that lost a game in which it led by two possessions in the fourth quarter.

But, consider this:  by my count Fulmer’s Vols came from two possessions behind to win 10 times in 17 years:

Meanwhile, Butch’s Vols have come back from two possessions behind to win six times in just the last three years:

Quality of opponent is also interesting here:  40% of Fulmer’s comeback list is Kentucky or Vanderbilt, while two-thirds of Butch’s came against teams who were ranked at the time or finished the year that way.

Say what you will about Butch Jones (or Josh Dobbs, the quarterback of every one of those comebacks). The bigger point?  Pace of play has significantly changed how we watch college football.

Getting down 14 points used to create panic; Fulmer’s Vols only came back from such a deficit six times in 17 years. But today, it’s not a big deal:  Butch’s Vols have come back from down 14 points five times in the last 31 games. 

Getting up by a similar margin is also no sure thing anymore. Fulmer’s Vols only blew two leads of 12+ points ever, and only one if you remove games started by Todd Helton at quarterback. When Tennessee got up that much, the Vols were a lock (in part because of a far greater talent advantage). But the 2015 Vols blew 12+ point leads against three consecutive FBS foes.

Pace of play has increased the number of total plays per game, which means the opportunity to blow a lead or come back from a hole is greater now than it was in Fulmer’s day. More plays also means more opportunity for injury, which as we know can create all kinds of havoc in both an individual’s playing career and a season’s narrative.

Check out the total number of snaps Tennessee’s defense has faced in the last nine years:

Season Opponent Plays Per Game
2008 776 64.7
2009 852 65.5
2010 913 70.2
2011 752 62.7
2012 923 76.9
2013 827 68.9
2014 892 68.6
2015 904 69.5
2016 1000 76.9

Last year the Vols were one of only nine defenses to face 1,000 plays while playing only 13 games. The 2016 defense clearly had problems that went beyond injuries, depth, and fatigue. But no one should pretend this kind of workload wasn’t a significant factor.

Numbers like these are also why using yards/points per game is so misleading. Missouri gained 740 yards on the Vols, but did so in 110 plays. In yards per play it was only the fourth worst performance of the season for the Tennessee defense. Team 120’s season total in yards per play allowed (5.84) was better than not just Sal Sunseri’s 2012 debacle (6.13), but also Butch’s first year in 2013 (6.07).

These numbers suggest Tennessee is going to blow some leads this fall. They also suggest no one should panic if Tennessee falls behind by two scores. I’m sure there are things for Butch to consider in how he prepares his team and keeps them locked in during games. But overall I think this has less to do with Butch Jones and more to do with the current reality of the game. And for coaches, players, and fans alike, it means a higher percentage of meaningful snaps.

[ess_grid alias=”grt-2017-promo-grid”][/ess_grid]