News flash: Spreads matter. We generally measure the GRT Statsy Preview Machine against the Vegas opening spreads, and although the machine has done well in the past, it’s only batting .500 so far this season. Last week was particularly bad: Against Vegas opening spreads, it went 11-16 (40.74%) overall, 3-7 (30%) in Category 2, and 1-3 (25%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 57-58 (49.57%) in Category 1, 25-24 (51.02%) in Category 2, and 11-11 (50%) in Category 3.
No big deal, it’s a weird season after all, right?
But the machine is tearing it up if you measure it against the same spreads that other systems are using. For instance, against the same spreads that SP+ measures against, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall for the second week in a row last week. For the season against those spreads, it’s 70-45 (60.87%). So yeah, spreads matter.
SP+ went 11-16 (40.74%) against its spreads last week. It did slightly better against the same spreads we use (Vegas opening spreads), as it was 12-15 (44.44%). Against Vegas opening spreads for the season, it is still a killer 70-45 (60.87%).
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 7 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 7 Picks
Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Auburn | South Carolina | Auburn | -3 | Auburn | -2.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| South Florida | Temple | Temple | -10.5 | Temple | -11.5 | Covers |
| SMU | Tulane | SMU | -7.5 | SMU | -8.7 | Covers |
| Kentucky | Tennessee | Tennessee | -6.5 | Tennessee | -7.9 | Covers |
| Clemson | Georgia Tech | Clemson | -26 | Clemson | -28.6 | Covers |
| Massachusetts | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | -27.5 | Georgia Southern | -30.9 | Covers |
| Mississippi | Arkansas | Mississippi | -4 | Mississippi | -7.4 | Covers |
| UCF | Memphis | UCF | -2.5 | UCF | -6.1 | Covers |
| Boston College | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | -10.5 | Virginia Tech | -5.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Navy | East Carolina | Navy | -2.5 | East Carolina | -3.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Western Kentucky | UAB | UAB | -11 | UAB | -18.1 | Covers |
| Texas State | South Alabama | South Alabama | -2 | Texas State | -5.8 | Doesn't cover |
| North Texas | Middle Tennessee | Middle Tennessee | -7 | North Texas | -1.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Texas A&M | Mississippi State | Texas A&M | -4 | Mississippi State | -4.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Pittsburgh | Miami (Florida) | Miami (Florida) | -9.5 | Miami (Florida) | -0.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Coastal Carolina | Louisiana-Lafayette | Louisiana-Lafayette | -7.5 | Coastal Carolina | -1.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Duke | North Carolina State | North Carolina State | -4.5 | North Carolina State | -14.4 | Covers |
| Louisville | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | -14 | Notre Dame | -24 | Covers |
| Virginia | Wake Forest | Virginia | -1 | Wake Forest | -10.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Army | UTSA | Army | -9 | Army | -21.2 | Covers |
| Marshall | Louisiana Tech | Marshall | -13.5 | Marshall | -27.2 | Covers |
| Kansas | West Virginia | West Virginia | -23 | West Virginia | -39.6 | Covers |
| Georgia State | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -5 | Georgia State | -12.6 | Doesn't cover |
| BYU | Houston | BYU | -4.5 | BYU | -25.5 | Covers |
| Liberty | Syracuse | Syracuse | -9 | Liberty | -14.4 | Doesn't cover |
| North Carolina | Florida State | North Carolina | -9.5 | North Carolina | -33.6 | Covers |
| Georgia | Alabama | Alabama | -7.5 | Georgia | -20 | Doesn't cover |
| Eastern Kentucky | Troy | Troy | -26.5 | Troy | -54.5 | Covers |
There are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.
What are you favorite games this week?