UPDATE: 10.9.20, 5:29 p.m. Coding error was pulling 2019 comps on some games when it should have been pulling 2020 comps, so I’ve re-run the numbers. What’s in the table below now is correct.
First of all, apologies for the sudden silence from me. A family emergency pressed pause on my world for five days. We are out of the woods now, so I’m spending much of the day jumping back on the moving train and filling in as many gaps as I’m able, starting with the TV schedule and the standings in the weekend games.
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 15-12 (55.56%) overall against the opening lines last week. It went 4-5 (44.44%) in Category 2 and 2-2 (50%) in Category 3. For the season, it is now 46-42 (52.27%) in Category 1, 22-17 (56.41%) in Category 2, and 10-8 (55.56%) in Category 3.
Using the same spreads as SP+, our machine went 19-8 (70.37%) overall last week while SP+ went 17-10 (62.96%). SP+’s official results for the week: 17-11 (61%).
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 6 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 6 Picks
We are beginning to settle in as most teams now have at least two games on their resumes. That will change, of course, when the Big 10 and Pac-12 start playing, but for now, we’re beginning to get our legs. Here’s what the machine is thinking this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Alabama | Mississippi | Alabama | -24 | Alabama | -23.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Pittsburgh | Boston College | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | Pittsburgh | -4.2 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Liberty | Liberty | -21 | Liberty | -21.8 | Covers |
| Charlotte | North Texas | Charlotte | -2 | Charlotte | -0.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| North Carolina State | Virginia | Virginia | -9.5 | Virginia | -7.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| UTSA | BYU | BYU | -33.5 | BYU | -36.1 | Covers |
| Tennessee | Georgia | Georgia | -14.5 | Georgia | -17.4 | Covers |
| Missouri | LSU | LSU | -19 | LSU | -22 | Covers |
| UTEP | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | -14 | Louisiana Tech | -10.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Miami (Florida) | Clemson | Clemson | -14.5 | Clemson | -9.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Duke | Syracuse | Syracuse | -1.5 | Syracuse | -7 | Covers |
| Kansas State | TCU | TCU | -8.5 | TCU | -1.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Virginia Tech | North Carolina | North Carolina | -5.5 | North Carolina | -12.3 | Covers |
| South Carolina | Vanderbilt | South Carolina | -11 | South Carolina | -18 | Covers |
| Texas Tech | Iowa State | Iowa State | -13 | Iowa State | -6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Texas State | Troy | Troy | -8 | Troy | -0.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Tulane | Houston | Houston | -4.5 | Tulane | -3.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Florida Atlantic | Southern Mississippi | Florida Atlantic | -6 | Florida Atlantic | -16.1 | Covers |
| Temple | Navy | Temple | -3.5 | Temple | -13.8 | Covers |
| Arkansas | Auburn | Auburn | -16 | Auburn | -3.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Citadel | Army | Army | -31.5 | Army | -45.2 | Covers |
| Florida State | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | -21.5 | Notre Dame | -35.3 | Covers |
| Texas | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | -3.5 | Texas | -10.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Middle Tennessee | Florida International | Florida International | -6.5 | Florida International | -22 | Covers |
| East Carolina | South Florida | South Florida | -3 | East Carolina | -12.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Mississippi State | Kentucky | Kentucky | -2.5 | Mississippi State | -13.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Florida | Texas A&M | Florida | -6 | Florida | -22.4 | Covers |
| Louisville | Georgia Tech | Louisville | -6.5 | Louisville | -26.1 | Covers |
| Central Arkansas | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -17 | Central Arkansas | -4.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Marshall | Western Kentucky | Marshall | -4 | Marshall | -28.5 | Covers |
There are five six Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Let’s see if it can get its groove back on those.
What are you favorite games this week?