The GRT Statsy Preview Machine inched out of the garage after a service call last week and basically just took a cruise around the block getting a feel for its new wheels. It went 14-13 (51.85%) overall last week, and hit only .500 in both Category 2 (7-7) and Category 3 (3-3). For the season, it is now 31-30 (50.82%) in Category 1, 18-12 (60%) in Category 2, and 8-6 (57.14%) in Category 3. Incidentally, if you compare its projections to the same spreads that SP+ uses, it went 17-10 (62.96%) overall last week, about the same as SP+ itself. I trust Bill on the spreads he’s using; I just don’t know the source. I use Oddsshark’s “Opening” spreads. Whether that’s a casino, sportsbook, Oddsshark itself, or just whoever is first, I don’t know. If anyone can enlighten, I’d love to hear it.
But for now, here are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 5 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 5 Picks
The Unknowable is losing a bit of chaotic power but is still a threat to rear its head and wreak havoc. With that caveat, here’s what we have for this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Southern Mississippi | North Texas | North Texas | -2.5 | North Texas | -2.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia Southern | Louisiana-Monroe | Georgia Southern | -15.5 | Georgia Southern | -16.1 | Covers |
| Mississippi | Kentucky | Kentucky | -7 | Kentucky | -6.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Virginia | Clemson | Clemson | -27.5 | Clemson | -28.5 | Covers |
| Virginia Tech | Duke | Virginia Tech | -10.5 | Virginia Tech | -9.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Texas A&M | Alabama | Alabama | -9.5 | Alabama | -11 | Covers |
| South Carolina | Florida | Florida | -19.5 | Florida | -17.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arkansas | Mississippi State | Mississippi State | -17 | Mississippi State | -15.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Abilene Christian | Army | Army | -31 | Army | -28.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Auburn | Georgia | Georgia | -4.5 | Georgia | -8.6 | Covers |
| North Carolina | Boston College | North Carolina | -11.5 | North Carolina | -15.7 | Covers |
| UTSA | UAB | UAB | -18.5 | UAB | -13.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Missouri | Tennessee | Tennessee | -11 | Tennessee | -5.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| LSU | Vanderbilt | LSU | -18.5 | LSU | -23.6 | Covers |
| Tulsa | UCF | UCF | -18.5 | UCF | -24.1 | Covers |
| Campbell | Wake Forest | Wake Forest | -33.5 | Wake Forest | -26.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Louisiana Tech | BYU | BYU | -22.5 | BYU | -14.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| North Carolina State | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | -14.5 | Pittsburgh | -22.3 | Covers |
| Oklahoma State | Kansas | Oklahoma State | -21.5 | Oklahoma State | -29.8 | Covers |
| Memphis | SMU | Memphis | -4.5 | SMU | -4.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina | Arkansas State | -3.5 | Coastal Carolina | -6.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Western Kentucky | Middle Tennessee | Western Kentucky | -7 | Western Kentucky | -18.5 | Covers |
| East Carolina | Georgia State | Georgia State | -1 | Georgia State | -13.2 | Covers |
| Charlotte | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic | -7.5 | Florida Atlantic | -20.4 | Covers |
| South Florida | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -14 | Cincinnati | -28.4 | Covers |
| Texas Tech | Kansas State | Kansas State | -3.5 | Kansas State | -19.3 | Covers |
| Baylor | West Virginia | Baylor | -2.5 | Baylor | -19.9 | Covers |
| Oklahoma | Iowa State | Oklahoma | -10.5 | Oklahoma | -29.8 | Covers |
| TCU | Texas | Texas | -13 | Texas | -36.8 | Covers |
There are only four Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.
What are you favorite games this week?