The GRT Statsy Preview Machine got coronavirused after Week 1. Turns out, the thing is not a fan of teams starting the season at different times, as it was programmed to use weeks as a rough approximation of games played. But when it came up against matchups that featured teams with unequal number of games played and, in addition, for which one team had adequate comps from this season while the other did not, well, it kind of threw up all over its shoes.
An entire weekend in the shop, and it is now good as new and able to contend with teams playing opponents at different stages of their respective seasons. Last week, it went 10-5 (66.67%) overall, 8-2 (80%) in Category 2, and 3-1 (75%) in the favored Category 3 games. That makes up some ground from the first couple of weeks, and it is now, for the young season, 17-17 (50%) in Category 1, 11-5 (68.75%) in Category 2, and 5-3 (62.5%) in Category 3.
So, off we go.
As a reminder, there’s a reason we do this, and it might not be what you think. That link also includes an explanation of what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 4 Picks
With yet another (and probably not the last) word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 4 of the 2020 college football season:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Tulsa | Arkansas State | Arkansas State | -1.5 | Arkansas State | -1.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Florida | Mississippi | Florida | -10 | Florida | -7.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia Tech | Syracuse | Syracuse | -3 | Syracuse | -6.6 | Covers |
| Tulane | Southern Mississippi | Tulane | -3.5 | Southern Mississippi | -1 | Doesn't cover |
| Kansas State | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | -27 | Oklahoma | -32.2 | Covers |
| Stephen F. Austin | SMU | SMU | -31.5 | SMU | -25.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Kentucky | Auburn | Auburn | -13.5 | Auburn | -7.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Florida State | Miami (Florida) | Miami (Florida) | -10 | Miami (Florida) | -16.8 | Covers |
| Louisville | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | Pittsburgh | -10.2 | Covers |
| Florida International | Liberty | Liberty | -6.5 | Florida International | -1.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Duke | Virginia | Virginia | -6 | Virginia | -14.1 | Covers |
| Alabama | Missouri | Alabama | -25.5 | Alabama | -17.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | -10 | Oklahoma State | -1.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| North Carolina State | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | -9 | Virginia Tech | -0.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia | Arkansas | Georgia | -24.5 | Georgia | -33.4 | Covers |
| Vanderbilt | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | -30 | Texas A&M | -20.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Georgia Southern | Louisiana-Lafayette | Louisiana-Lafayette | -14.5 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -4 | Doesn't Cover |
| UCF | East Carolina | UCF | -24.5 | UCF | -35.2 | Covers |
| Texas State | Boston College | Boston College | -17 | Boston College | -6.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Mississippi State | LSU | LSU | -19.5 | LSU | -31.9 | Covers |
| UAB | South Alabama | UAB | -6 | South Alabama | -6.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Kansas | Baylor | Baylor | -18.5 | Baylor | -32.9 | Covers |
| Notre Dame | Wake Forest | Notre Dame | -21.5 | Notre Dame | -36 | Covers |
| Iowa State | TCU | Iowa State | -2.5 | TCU | -12.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Houston Baptist | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | -27 | Louisiana Tech | -11.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| South Florida | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic | -5.5 | Florida Atlantic | -24.1 | Covers |
| Georgia State | Charlotte | Charlotte | -1.5 | Georgia State | -17.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Tennessee | South Carolina | Tennessee | -2.5 | Tennessee | -21.9 | Covers |
| UTEP | Louisiana-Monroe | Louisiana-Monroe | -8 | UTEP | -13.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Campbell | Appalachian State | Appalachian State | -36.5 | Appalachian State | -13.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Army | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -12.5 | Army | -14.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Middle Tennessee | UTSA | UTSA | -6.5 | UTSA | -37.6 | Covers |
| Troy | BYU | BYU | -15 | BYU | -47.1 | Covers |
| Texas | Texas Tech | Texas | -15.5 | Texas | -50.4 | Covers |
| North Texas | Houston | Houston | -19.5 | North Texas | -15.6 | Doesn't cover |
The six games in green are Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.
What are you favorite games this week?