Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 36-12 (75%) overall, 11-6 (64.71%) in Category 2, and 4-4 (50%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 149-128 (53.79%) in Category 1, 56-55 (50.45%) in Category 2, and 27-28 (49.09%) in Category 3.
Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 29-17 (63.04%) overall for the week.
For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 31-16-1 (65.95%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 147-126-5 (53.85%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 32-16 (66.67%).
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 11of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 11 Picks
Below are the machine’s picks this week.
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Hawai'i | San Diego State | San Diego State | -10 | San Diego State | -9.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Miami (Florida) | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | -2 | Virginia Tech | -2.2 | Covers |
| Oregon | Washington State | Oregon | -7.5 | Oregon | -7.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Kent State | Bowling Green | Kent State | -21 | Kent State | -21.9 | Covers |
| North Texas | UAB | UAB | -15 | UAB | -13.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| SMU | Tulsa | Tulsa | -2 | Tulsa | -0.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| South Florida | Houston | Houston | -14.5 | Houston | -13.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Notre Dame | Boston College | Notre Dame | -13 | Notre Dame | -14.6 | Covers |
| USC | Arizona | USC | -12.5 | USC | -14.5 | Covers |
| Penn State | Nebraska | Penn State | -3 | Penn State | -5.2 | Covers |
| Florida Atlantic | Florida International | Florida Atlantic | -9.5 | Florida Atlantic | -7 | Doesn't Cover |
| South Carolina | Mississippi | Mississippi | -7 | Mississippi | -9.5 | Covers |
| South Alabama | Louisiana-Lafayette | Louisiana-Lafayette | -14 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -10.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Akron | Ohio | Ohio | -27 | Ohio | -30.2 | Covers |
| Nevada | New Mexico | Nevada | -12 | Nevada | -15.4 | Covers |
| Arkansas | Florida | Florida | -17 | Florida | -20.6 | Covers |
| Colorado State | Boise State | Boise State | -13.5 | Boise State | -9.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Rice | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | -1 | Rice | -2.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Eastern Michigan | Ball State | Ball State | -7.5 | Ball State | -3.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Temple | UCF | UCF | -28.5 | UCF | -32.6 | Covers |
| Vanderbilt | Kentucky | Kentucky | -17.5 | Kentucky | -21.7 | Covers |
| Texas State | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | -10 | Georgia Southern | -14.7 | Covers |
| Toledo | Western Michigan | Western Michigan | -2.5 | Western Michigan | -7.3 | Covers |
| Gardner-Webb | Charlotte | Charlotte | -29.5 | Charlotte | -24.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Louisville | Virginia | Virginia | -1 | Louisville | -4 | Doesn't cover |
| UTEP | UTSA | UTSA | -5 | UTEP | -0.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Oregon State | Washington | Washington | -13.5 | Washington | -20.3 | Covers |
| UNLV | San Jose State | San Jose State | -16 | San Jose State | -23 | Covers |
| TCU | West Virginia | West Virginia | -2 | West Virginia | -9.3 | Covers |
| Illinois | Rutgers | Rutgers | -6 | Rutgers | -13.7 | Covers |
| Miami (Ohio) | Buffalo | Buffalo | -7 | Buffalo | -14.8 | Covers |
| Middle Tennessee | Marshall | Marshall | -24 | Marshall | -31.8 | Covers |
| Coastal Carolina | Troy | Coastal Carolina | -7.5 | Coastal Carolina | -15.8 | Covers |
| California | Arizona State | Arizona State | -4 | California | -4.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Baylor | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | -1.5 | Baylor | -8.3 | Doesn't cover |
| East Carolina | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -25.5 | Cincinnati | -35.5 | Covers |
| Southern Mississippi | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | -8 | Southern Mississippi | -3.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Indiana | Michigan State | Indiana | -8 | Indiana | -20.9 | Covers |
| Northwestern | Purdue | Northwestern | -2.5 | Northwestern | -16 | Covers |
| Wake Forest | North Carolina | North Carolina | -9.5 | Wake Forest | -5 | Doesn't cover |
| Pittsburgh | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | -7.5 | Pittsburgh | -22.1 | Covers |
| Colorado | Stanford | Stanford | -7 | Colorado | -7.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Central Michigan | Northern Illinois | Central Michigan | -3.5 | Central Michigan | -19.3 | Covers |
| Georgia State | Appalachian State | Appalachian State | -15.5 | Appalachian State | -32.3 | Covers |
| Utah | UCLA | Utah | -3.5 | Utah | -21.1 | Covers |
| Fresno State | Utah State | Fresno State | -12.5 | Fresno State | -31.2 | Covers |
| Iowa | Minnesota | Iowa | -1.5 | Iowa | -20.9 | Covers |
| Florida State | North Carolina State | North Carolina State | -7.5 | North Carolina State | -28.6 | Covers |
| Army | Tulane | Tulane | -4 | Army | -22.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Wisconsin | Michigan | Michigan | -3.5 | Wisconsin | -24.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Western Carolina | Liberty | Liberty | -32.5 | Liberty | -62.1 | Covers |
According to that, which uses the opening spreads, there are five Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week. Beware, though, that the sweet spot that has done so well the past several years has shifted just a bit this year. So far in 2020, the sweet spot has shifted from between 9 and 14 (points away from the Vegas opening spread) to between 11 and 15. If we’d been using 11-15 all season, the Category 3 games would be 25-16 (60.98%) instead of just under 50%. I’m wary of introducing a moving target into the equation, though, so we’ll continue tracking 9-14. Also, the lines obviously move by Thursday of each week when I post this, and the sweet spot, of course, moves with them.
Bottom line, the games the SPM feels best about as of the time I’m drafting this (just before Wednesday evening’s games), both because they are currently in the sweet spot and because SP+ agrees, are these:
- Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (Central Michigan -6.5)
- Baylor at Texas Tech (Baylor +1.5)
- Colorado at Stanford (Colorado +6.5)
What are you favorite games this week?